Elevation's Take on the Palm Deal? 5%
Bloomberg has published an article on the Hewlett-Packard deal. As one would expect, the article gives a summary of the news of the day with a financial focus. The math wizards there have worked out what Palm investment heros Elevation Partners will take away from their overall investments in Palm Inc. Elevation injected over $460 million since the big recapitalization deal in 2007.
Because of the terms of its investments, Elevation made $25 million, or a 5.4 percent gain, on Palm, while common shareholders lost 65 percent in that period, based on the purchase price.
Also, perhaps comically, Bloomberg just won't let the Palm is for sale meme die. The authors let a little wall st. rumor slip in which purports that Nokia may just still want to put in a bid.
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Another Palm/PalmSource shell game in the works?
Unlikely but worth at least considering for the conspiracy-minded amongst the PIC faithful. Heck, it might be our last chance for one of those zingers for a while!!
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RE: Another Palm/PalmSource shell game in the works?
Pat Horne
RE: Another Palm/PalmSource shell game in the works?
http://www.pcworld.com/article/189443/hp_compaq_airlife_100_smartbook_a_visual_tour.html
I could also forsee HP keeping "Palm" around for a while to woo the consumer/prosumer line and keep iPaq for the corporate line. I would not at all rule out "Palm" being eventually phased out completely.
Also, it'll be interesting to see if this event will soothe any of the ruffled feathers with the carriers & developers that have been burned by Palm over the past few years (basically ever since the Fooleo debacle).
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RE: Another Palm/PalmSource shell game in the works?
Unless they're taking money for that RIGHT NOW, it won't be happening.
I don't believe that analysis is correct
According to the documents surrounding those "preferred" shares, they get precedence in payoff. By MY non-accountant reading they get 101% of whatever they cost FIRST, then the rest of the money left over gets split up among all common shareholders. I have read and reread that documentation and totally believe that is a correct viewpoint - if YOU are an accountant and have read those documents and think otherwise, please post!
In any case, that means that Elevation gets about $380 milllion right up front, lowering the "Buyout Deal" to about $581 million ($400ish of the deal is to pay off the debt).
There are 168 million outstanding common shares. Dividing $581 by 168 gives about $3.45 per share as the actual buyout per share amount for common shares.
That is, this works out to be a takeunder, not a takeover.
It is TOTALLY unclear at this moment in time how any other math can be done to give a higher price per common share.
==========
I suspect the PR-fluffs and filings mention a hard TOTAL buyout price of $1.2 billion, then add a soft "based on 168 million outstanding shares, that works out to $5.70/share after the debt is paid" aside. Even though there are NOT 168 million shares, there are 240,000,000 without even taking into account the fact that the Preferred have payoff precedence.
If this is true, the price per share of Palm is about to plummet almost 40% as folks realize what the deal REALLY is!
Short!
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
Isn't that a nice round number!?
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
== "...The two Silicon Valley companies announced Wednesday that the deal
== will see HP pay $5.70 for every Palm common share and certain
== preferred shares. Also included in the $1.4 billion price tag are payments
== for additional preferred shares, warrants and employee restricted stock
== units..."
That makes the deal approximately $5.70 share if 240,000,000 is the share count.
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
And the Palm cash/assets?
Those almost balanced out the debt.
Elevation Partners covered their asses effectively, but should have been able to flip Palm for a much better price had they managed the process more effectively. $250 - 300 million profit should have been easily attainable.
They must be licking their wounds right now in the EP boardroom...
Coulda been a contenda. Idiots.
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
== "...The holders of Palm's Series C Preferred Stock will receive
== the Common Stock Consideration on an as-converted basis. The
== holders of Palm's Series B Preferred Stock will receive
== aggregate cash consideration of $328.3 million, without
== interest, based on the existing liquidation preference of the
== Series B Preferred Stock. Each outstanding warrant will be
== converted into the right to receive $2.45 in cash, without
== interest, for each share of Palm's common stock subject to the
== warrant..."
They get 101% (plus or minus) of the $8.50/share initial Preferred B share thingee, exactly what they paid + buyout profit for their second Preferred C share thingee ($5.70-$3.25 or $2.45), and $2.45 profit for every warrant they exercise. And they lose money for every common share they bought straight up (like the ones at $16.25).
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
So, thanks to Ed Colligan for bringing in Rubinstein and EP and for them keeping it alive. They shepherded Palm to the Promised Land.
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
Second, here is Dennis Gartman's take on "the surprise buy-out offer of Palm by HP. The short interest in Palm is enormous, and those who are short find themselves scrambling to cover, sending the price of the shares to a premium over HP's cash bid, when it is rather clear that no one else will be willing to buy Palm's clearly inferior technology."
I don't know who bought shares at $16.25, but they've had a very expensive education.
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
RE: I don't believe that analysis is correct
That means I'm quoting someone else. In this case, his name is Dennis Gartman. He's been trading over 30 years and is one of the most respected market commentators.
The fact that you don't think he knows how capital markets works, doesn't make him stupid. It makes you a prick.
The most manipulated stock IN HISTORY is soon finaly kaput
Nokia needs webOS badly, and given its essentially OS-less position and its wealth I'm shocked they didn't pony up the $2 billion asking price rumor has it that Palm had been holding out for. $2 billion is chump change for Nokia, especially considering the fact that they lack an OS that can compete with iPhoneOS and Android, and webOS would have given them a turnkey platform to base their phones on within MONTHS.
Nokia apparently got greedy and tried to get desperate Palm for pennies on the dollar. Instead they may get nothing. Nokia sweetening the deal by 30% may make this tasty little saga last a bit longer. Too funny.
HP would be wise to keep webOS to itself rather than licensing it or selling it to others like Nokia. Mobile OSes are poised to challenge desktop OSes this decade in terms of importance. Devices like the HTC EVO will show how much REGULAR people will start doing with their phones from now on (phone, videocalling, email, text, TV, YouTube, social networking, GPS, movies, MP3, digital camera, camcorder, photo album, apps...). People will now be interacting with their cell phones more and on a much more personal level than they do with their desktops. HP needed to get into this space and out of the commodity desktop/laptop/netbook arena . webOS will be a great differentiator for them. To share that competitive advantage with Nokia would be foolish.
If Nokia fails to get webOS they may be forced to become JAAP (Just Another Android Proxy (puppet)) - and ultimately get sodomized by Google. If Nokia's board has a clue they will do whatever is necessary to get complete control of webOS immediately and prevent Nokia's rapid descent into oblivion (and irrelevance).
FJH
RE: The most manipulated stock IN HISTORY is soon finaly kaput
Nokia's been invited to an orgy.
But they can't figure out how to pull it out of their foreskin.
Nokia's going away. Hey, cheap real estate in Finland ahead!
RE: The most manipulated stock IN HISTORY is soon finaly kaput
Without webOS they are on the outside looking in at the smartphone party.
FJH
So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
I'm betting yes (more or less). After 10 years of daily FUD on multiple different Palm-related sites, the infamous banning from Treo(BibleThumper)Central, the relentlessly focused efforts to scour the Web for ANY and ALL negative news about Palm, dozens of hours per week spent discussing a platform he claims to not use, etc. we're all gonna miss the Little Critter. Good Luck!
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
Lessee...what's a good ID to use and a good discussion field to pursue?...
Ah....flower arrangement!
[note, however, that the outrageous buyout price for Palm - as crazy as the PalmSource one - remains good fodder for discussion until at least July! HP management should be ousted over this one, IMHO - crazy lack of financial responsibility!]
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
In short, I had always believed that the world involved magic: now I thought that perhaps it involved a magician.
- Chesterton
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
Nonsense. webOS is real and is close to being ready for prime time. It can dovetail perfectly with HP's product line and will serve to differentiate them from everyone else that is just offering Android. Apple is the only other company that has its own phone OS that is capable of scaling up to netbooks and tablets.
The PalmSource deal was bzarre. This deal isn't. Of course, HP could have waited until the stock price was in the $1 - 2 range (likely within 2 months), but had they done so too many other companies would have kicked the tires at Palm, risking a bidding war, where "auction fever" hits and PalmSource-level mistakes get made.
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
> bidding war, where "auction fever" hits and PalmSource-level mistakes get
> made...
That happened.
HPQ won.
What a mistake.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
HPQ won.
What a mistake.
Wrong again.
There was no bidding war. Palm went out soliciting (begging for) bids like a low rent hooker. Most companies played hardball, realizing that with Palm about to implode this quarter since by July its stock price could no longer continue to be propped up artificially. (The manipulations of the Palm stock over the years have truly been breathtaking to even the most jaundiced market observer.)
HP is wealthy and decided to lock up Palm's assets now rather than wait for a better price but then have to compete with a motley collection of minor league suitors. The risk of waiting was that a competitor like Nokia could have got ACCESS Fever and done something insane like the (now moribund) company that bought PalmSource for five times what it was worth a few years ago. Nokia could easily have paid double what HP did, so $1.6 billion now was an intelligent, calculated business decision.
You can continue bashing Palm until the cows come home, but that's not going to change the fact that they have intrinsic value - specifically webOS - that is huge to a company like HP with the means to develop and bring a stable of webOS powered devices to market.
Palm survived long enough to find a Sugar Daddy. In some ways, they get the last laugh and you don't get the twisted satisfaction of seeing them go bankrupt. HP now needs to immediately weed out the large number of useless managers at Palm and install their own people to oversee development, to make sure that the webOS team doesn't get fat and lazy now that they're no longer having to fight for their lives every day.
I'm happy to see Palm survive. Hopefully HP will show the PalmOS user base and developers a lot more respect than Palm did over the years. If they don't, Apple and Google's minions are going to eat HP alive with its webOS initiative.
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
HPQ has a gajillion UNIX developers (and Android/Linux developers) in-house. They could have bought User Interface people for a piddling amount compared to the Palm buyout and had literally EVERYTHING Palm has to offer in webOS.
There is NO WAY that webOS is ready for devices other than the Pre/Pixi - no device drivers, no flexibility, nothing. It's going to take a MASSIVE redesign and reprogaramming effort to get it ported onto a non-Palm device.
I think this purchase is going to rank right up there with The Biggest Corporate Mistakes.
A billion dollars for nothing more than a User Interface - insane and DUHmb.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
What is "serious"?
Company X offers $500 million and is turned down. So what? The fact that there were other bidders was known. The other bidders were just lowballing Palm and circling like sharks that smelled blood. HP plucked Palm out of the water with a better price. The competition got greedy and lost out on obtaining a tremendous asset at a good price.
whether you like it or not.
How. Odd.
HPQ has a gajillion UNIX developers (and Android/Linux developers) in-house. They could have bought User Interface people for a piddling amount compared to the Palm buyout and had literally EVERYTHING Palm has to offer in webOS.
There is NO WAY that webOS is ready for devices other than the Pre/Pixi - no device drivers, no flexibility, nothing. It's going to take a MASSIVE redesign and reprogaramming effort to get it ported onto a non-Palm device.
I think this purchase is going to rank right up there with The Biggest Corporate Mistakes.
A billion dollars for nothing more than a User Interface - insane and DUHmb.
Ridiculous. webOS can scale easily to larger devices. As does Android. As does iPhoneOS.
DUHmb is thinking that throwing "a gajillion UNIX developers" and some "User Interface people" together will get you a functional mobile operating system any time soon. How long do you think Google has been working on Android? 4 years. Last I checked, Google had a few pretty smart "UNIX developers" and "User Interface people" working for them. For a few years, in fact. And last I checked, Google also had a little bit of money in the office cookie jar. And still it took them 4 years to get Android to the (not fully developed) stage it is today.
HP currently has no mobile OS and needed to get into this space NOW - not in 2014. Buying Palm for peanuts gives them an OS that rivals Android and webOS and gets HP into the game IMMEDIATELY. To not recognize that HP just made a brilliant investment is DUHmb.
You're reaching, hengeem. You can do better than this. Bring your "A game" next time if you're going to try to criticize the HP deal. Any way you look at it, buying Palm was a good move - especially for a massive, diverse company like HP that can leverage its resources to get Palm's IP into some quality devices quickly.
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
How much would you bet they were trying that with Android and decided, well, sh*t, if we're going to have to do all THAT, why not just BUY an OS so we don't have to share our part of the work with Google?
The hp move was the best one to make for Palm. And hp has moved on up:
hp Acquiring Palm: The Picture Version
http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/04/30/hp-acquiring-palm-the-picture-version/
What I would like to see is what device(s) hp put webOS on to test its scalability. Is there a Slate and Airlife in the bowels of hp with webOS roughly running on them?
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
iphone os = mac os x scaled down. Still, in order to support higher resolution displays, it required some substantial development effort by apple.
webos has been around about a third of the time as iphone os, so while webos may be scalable, it won't be a simple task to port to a higher resolution device, but it will require some substantial work.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
At least with webOS *hp* will be setting the screen resolutions and devs will know exactly what resolutions to target. With Android, there is zero such foreknowledge.
Anyone recall the hell when WinMob went to VGA and the "official" VGA MS offered was basically pixel-doubling, whereas there was already a hack that permitted *true* VGA? What a fekkin mess!
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
HP should immediately dump 320x400 and 320x480 and make 480x800 (or 480x854) @ 3.5" the new bare minimum.
Having just experienced a horrendous past few days of some buggy apps, a hard reset, scattered contacts due to an unwanted Facebook contact sync and an epic fail trying to restore Android Market apps to my Droid, I'm ready to find a STABLE, mature platform from SOMEONE not named Apple with a decent physical keyboard. Come on HP! Otherwise, I might end up with a Droid 2/Nexus Two whenever that comes out and might go mad in the process of trying to deal with Android's growing pains.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid + Verizon Palm Centro
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
How long has Android been on the market? And how long did it take for an END USER to put Android onto a netbook? Here's a hint:
http://social.venturebeat.com/2009/01/01/android-netbooks-on-their-way-likely-by-2010/
http://www.liliputing.com/2009/01/how-to-built-google-android-for-the-asus-eee-pc-701.html
You do realize what foundation webOS is built on, right?
You do realize that webOS was always intended to run on a variety of hardware, right?
Here's a clue: The future to mobile computing is bypassing Microsoft and all of its baggage. Google is doing this in a sneaky, false Kumbayah way and will drop the bomb eventually. HP will start from Day 1 with a clear, upfront plan and a complete range of hardware showcasing why Microsoft can quickly become irrelevant for non-business and mobile computing needs. Households can maintain a single Wintel desktop to run those Windows-only apps and use instant-booting, virus-resistant, bloat-free webOS apps laptops, netbooks and smartphones for the 95% of the time that a more simple computing environment is adequate. And on the rare occasion that a Windows-only app is needed when away from home just fire up the browser and use LogMeIn Free. Poor Microsoft.
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
Yes. The days of HandEra 240 x 320 hacks, CodeDiver, NYDITOT Virtual Display, pixel doubling issues and other "fun" stuff are over. Modern platforms need to adopt to ALL users - not vice versa like in the good old days.
Having just experienced a horrendous past few days of some buggy apps, a hard reset, scattered contacts due to an unwanted Facebook contact sync and an epic fail trying to restore Android Market apps to my Droid, I'm ready to find a STABLE, mature platform from SOMEONE not named Apple with a decent physical keyboard. Come on HP! Otherwise, I might end up with a Droid 2/Nexus Two whenever that comes out and might go mad in the process of trying to deal with Android's growing pains.
Sprint Centro 2 is calling your name. $99 on eBay. You KNOW you need it. Don't resist, son.
By the way, have you seen the HTC Incredible yet?
FJH
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
That Incredible is sweeeet indeed! But I wish it was a tad less plasticky and there are some reports of signal strength/voice quality woes. I'm going to see how this all shakes out before I jump hastily to another Android device. Besides, I'd really like to have something with a 4" AMOLED screen and a slide-out keyboard (Droid 2 perhaps). I really like what HTC has done with addressing some of the glaring deficiences of Android with Sense but I worry about ever seeing a 2.2+ update for any of these non-stock Android devices.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid + Verizon Palm Centro
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
I have an unlocked Centro (global edition) with an AT&T SIM and it feels like plasticky crap compared to my Sprint Centro 2. The GSM Centro case creaks and flexes every time I hold the phone and voice quality is horrible. The soft touch coating on the Centro 2 makes it feel like a solid phone. And 128 MB RAM is not too shabby given how tiny PalmOS apps are. $99 for a BRAND NEW Sprint Centro 2. Try it. You'll never want to go back to your Verizon Centros again.
I'm still debating whether or not to add an HTC EVO and use it for mobile hotspot, Web and multimedia and leave the Centro for email (Chatteremail rules!), text messaging, PIM and PalmOS apps. The Centro browser is so primitive that lugging around an EVO might be worthwhile. Another option would be an iPod touch, but I don't want to be dependent on leeching a Wi-Fi signal every time I want to use the browser.
That Incredible is sweeeet indeed! But I wish it was a tad less plasticky and there are some reports of signal strength/voice quality woes. I'm going to see how this all shakes out before I jump hastily to another Android device. Besides, I'd really like to have something with a 4" AMOLED screen and a slide-out keyboard (Droid 2 perhaps). I really like what HTC has done with addressing some of the glaring deficiences of Android with Sense but I worry about ever seeing a 2.2+ update for any of these non-stock Android devices.
I hadn't heard those reports. With the huge number of Android handsets coming out this year you're almost certain to find one that you like within 6 months. But hopefully HP will be announcing a high quality webOS phone before the end of the year.
FJH
P.S. Hope I wasn't too hard on our little buddy hengeem. These are difficult times for Palm bashers.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
I have an unlocked Centro (global edition) with an AT&T SIM and it feels like plasticky crap compared to my Sprint Centro 2. The GSM Centro case creaks and flexes every time I hold the phone and voice quality is horrible. The soft touch coating on the Centro 2 makes it feel like a solid phone. And 128 MB RAM is not too shabby given how tiny PalmOS apps are. $99 for a BRAND NEW Sprint Centro 2. Try it. You'll never want to go back to your Verizon Centros again.
I'm still debating whether or not to add an HTC EVO and use it for mobile hotspot, Web and multimedia and leave the Centro for email (Chatteremail rules!), text messaging, PIM and PalmOS apps. The Centro browser is so primitive that lugging around an EVO might be worthwhile. Another option would be an iPod touch, but I don't want to be dependent on leeching a Wi-Fi signal every time I want to use the browser.
That Incredible is sweeeet indeed! But I wish it was a tad less plasticky and there are some reports of signal strength/voice quality woes. I'm going to see how this all shakes out before I jump hastily to another Android device. Besides, I'd really like to have something with a 4" AMOLED screen and a slide-out keyboard (Droid 2 perhaps). I really like what HTC has done with addressing some of the glaring deficiences of Android with Sense but I worry about ever seeing a 2.2+ update for any of these non-stock Android devices.
I hadn't heard those reports. With the huge number of Android handsets coming out this year you're almost certain to find one that you like within 6 months. But hopefully HP will be announcing a high quality webOS phone before the end of the year.
FJH
P.S. Hope I wasn't too hard on our little buddy hengeem. These are difficult times for Palm bashers.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
WebOS started with some compelling advantages, but those have been blunted, no? And in six months will be likely completely gone.
RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
To lack even basic features that the dumbest of dumbphones have had for 5-10+ years such as a voice recorder app, voice dialing (BT or otherwise), removable memory card support and a programmable voice mail password is just pathetic in this day and age.
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Attn: FJH--Droid Incredible issue link
BGR said the Incredible has a "cheap" feeling to it. Nowhere like an old Centro, of course, but still not up to par with the HD2 or the Moto Droid:
http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2010/04/19/htc-droid-incredible-for-verizon-wireless-review/
Android is still a mess but between Android 2.1 and WebOS 1.x, I'm sticking with Android. But I am merrily open to jumping ship to a "fixed" HP WebOS next year. And I still think Android needs one more major revision to be taken truly seriously, so I'll be awaiting 3.0 as well.
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RE: So is hengeem/SeldomVisitor finally done with Palm? Bets?
SeldomVisitor wrote:
Not only will hengeem/SeldomVisitor disappear from Palm commentary, but commentary entirely - out with the old, in with the new!
This a good time to fade to black.
Buh bye!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yna9FIlV03Y
Giggle.
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