Opinion: My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002

At the end of the year, it is human nature to either look back over the year that is ending or look ahead toward the coming year. Long-time contributor Mike Cane has decided to play Cassandra and give us his predictions for what we can expect over the next twelve months.

My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002
by Mike Cane
Copyright © 2001 by Mike Cane.
All Rights Reserved.
Exclusive to Palm Infocenter.

It's been a strange year for Palm OS. The m505 screen controversy. The surprise waves of Cliés from Sony. TRG becoming HandEra and winding up on shelves in CompUSA. Palm acquiring and then abandoning new companies and old strategies. Then the surprise bombshell of Palm acquiring BeOS. And finally the long-awaited end of Carl Yankowski's reign of error.

The next year will be even stranger -- but exciting too. Based on trends already in motion (to those who have been observing carefully), here are my predictions for Palm OS in 2002 (in no particular order).

1) Sony will release a dual-slot Palm OS PDA. It will have a conventional Memory Stick slot on top. In its side will be a slot for its to-be-introduced half-sized Memory Stick. The advantage is to use the side slot for data storage and the top slot for a camera, GPS, Bluetooth or even conventional Memory Stick storage. (This may seem old hat to HandEra and Pocket PC owners, but it will further illustrate Sony's intentions to continue innovating with Palm OS.) With this model, Sony will have finally fixed the letter-spacing problems with its English-language fonts.

2) Late in 2002, when ARMed/BeOSed Palms start to appear, Sony will introduce the first Palm OS PDA with a built-in hard drive. Sony will use -- or will have licensed or developed in-house a version of -- the tiny 5GB Hitachi hard drive currently found in the Apple iPod. This PDA ("Super Clié"?) will be the first to really show off Palm OS as a multimedia PDA. Video and MP3 without the expense or limitations of Memory Stick (or MMC/SD). And forget USB (1 or 2). Think iLink (aka Firewire or IEEE-1394). (How else would you download TV programs from Sony's PVR?)

3) Microsoft will relent and port Microsoft Reader to Palm OS. If they can't crush Palm with Pocket PC (and they can't; at least not yet), they will at least want to try to "own" the ebook space. They will succeed, too. Porting Pocket Internet Explorer to Palm OS will not be as successful, however. Not up against Opera and other fuller-featured competitors. Palm OS will prevent Microsoft from finally "owning" the Net.

4) Apple will license Palm OS and produce a "Palm OS Companion." Not exactly an iMac, it will be a scaled-down and very-affordable machine that is what the 3Com Audrey should have been -- a very Palm-friendly syncing/desktop device for people who don't want an iMac or PC. Developers will flock to it, to create "desktop companion" versions of their palmtop programs. Imagine using WordSmith on your desktop -- the features of MS Word at a fraction of its cost! Not to mention the multimedia features of the "Palm OS Companion" that dovetail into Apple's "digital hub" strategy. (Apple will want Palm owners locked into QuickTime -- not the bizarrely-named "Windows Media Player for Palm OS"!)

5) Handspring will drop the Springboard concept. The form factor has become too large and Springboard peripheral sales will continue to disappoint. Few will care. All of the new Treo owners will have never even heard of a Springboard. Handspring will focus on the mainstream consumer market with new Palm OS PDAs, minus Springboard slots.

6) Palm will abandon the low-end and mainstream consumer markets. Say goodbye to the ugly m1xx-series. Asian manufacturers -- Taiwan, South Korea, and China -- will license Palm OS and produce very-cheap and nearly-disposable Palm OS PDAs based on the Dragonball version of Palm OS (viz, pre-Palm OS 5). Palm will insist these new licensees use their Universal Connector -- making existing peripheral manufacturers very, very happy. Tens of millions more Palm PDA owners will join the fun. (Don't laugh at the Barbie and Hot Wheels versions.)

7) "Palm OS -- Connected to Your World" will be the latest strategy for Palm. With its installed base of millions worldwide, and its new and buffed Palm OS 5, Palm will begin to migrate Palm connectivity to other devices. Using a Palm as an e-wallet with Visa software will just be the start. There will be Mobil Speedcash via a Palm PDA. ATMs will begin to offer wireless Pocket Quicken connectivity. The consumer model of Segway will have Palm connectivity (stats, diagnosis, directions). AOL will incorporate special "Palm OS-friendly" features -- such as being able to download software that will automatically transfer to a Palm OS PDA on its next HotSync (you will love the TV Guide software that links to the Date Book!). No more separate Install step (at least for AOL subscribers). (And no more AvantGo -- unless AOL acquires them.)

8) Finally! Palm will announce it has licensed Calligrapher for Palm OS (v. 5). But just like Microsoft's licensed version for Pocket PC (Microsoft Transcriber), the included version will contain a limited feature set. It will probably be called "Palm Writer." Still very useful, but power users will quickly upgrade to the full-featured Calligrapher. Millions of veteran Palm users will start the painful process of learning to really write on a screen; unlearning Graffiti will not be pretty.

9) Java! The very word gives Gates and Ballmer indigestion. It is the weak point in Microsoft's Pocket PC strategy to dominate the enterprise market. Full Java compliance and special Palm OS hooks -- with huge support from mainframe/server suppliers such as IBM, Sun, Dell, and even HP/Compaq -- will give Palm a real edge in enterprise sales. Oracle's Larry Ellison will be very happy.

10) Palm will shift its focus to the high-end consumer and businesses, to prop up profits. Sony will address multimedia for consumers, Handspring will go after mainstream consumers with new Springboard-free Palm OS PDAs and its Treo. Newbies and the low-enders will snap up the super-cheap Asian Dragonballed versions. HandEra will get lost in the shuffle.

11) Of course, Palm will still miss a great opportunity. It can't shake its myopic past altogether. Palm will again neglect to produce the first truly global PDA. There will still be separate ROMs for different languages. My dream of having a PDA in which I can effortlessly mix English, French, German, Japanese, Chinese, Russian, Hebrew, Greek and Korean in a single Memo or DOC will still have to wait. But then, there's always 2003 -- and just wait until you see what's in Palm OS 6!

Opinion: My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002 http://www.palminfocenter.com/news/2754/opinion-my-predictions-for-the-palm-os-in-2002/

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