Palm Hosting Another CES Event in January

:-D
Pat Horne

I would have written "Europe is still waiting for the Pre I", but I'm pretty sure they stopped doing that sometime around July and have bought themselves a nice Android by now.

Almost a year ago,l predicted that Palm aligning their fortunes so closely and exclusively with a quickly-fading domestic wireless carrier (Sprint) was a bad move. One year later we still have no AT&T or Verizon WebOS devices, no updated Pre, and no non-phone "Touch" handheleds running WebOS, As noted earlier, most of the European Palm faithful waiting on Palm have given up and moved on to another platform. Android might be making greater inroads in the USA than in Europe but once we start seeing the plethora of 2.0 and 2.1 Android devices (keyboardless GSM Droid etc), that situation may start rapidly changing as well.

If a non-iPhone device isn't on at least 2 of the big 3 carriers in the US with full subsidies and promo support AND available unlocked GSM all over the world, it's more than likely DOA.

What can Palm do? All entirely IMHO, of course:

-Introduce WebOS 1.5 or 2.0 ASAP with virtual keyboard support, video recording, voice dialing over BT, updated PIMs etc

-Get the wi-fi Pixi out to as many networks & carriers as possible. Address the performance woes of this device (as well as the Pre) however possible. This device still could be a sleeper hit if the price/performance/feature ratio is right.

-As the salivating fans awaiting HTC's Touch HD2 show, a larger device does not necessarily mean a return of the Moto Dynatac of the mid 1980s. Bring out a well-built candybar device branding "Treo" with a fast CPU, optimized (ie fast) OS, a keyboard as least as good as the Pixi or Treo Pro and the Pre's LCD.

-Another useful suggestion for WebOS 2.0 would be to ditch the space-wasting gesture area and have everything done onscreen. It would be easy to have an dynamic onscreen gesture area toggled from a keyboard button or a simple "up" swipe like what was previously used to evoke the onscreen keyboard on the classic Palm OS devices. The gesture area robs the device of both valuable keyboard AND screen real estate and (IMO) is not very intuitive to use for novices. Also, there's always the threat of multi-touch litigation from Apple. The gesture area on a contemporary device looks just as archaic as the silkscreened Graffiti area would on a new device. Is it somehow cooler because you don't have to use a stylus?

-Give the Pre a mid-life refresh with a higher-capacity standard battery, video recording, and 16GB/32GB variants. Get it onto VZW & AT&T. This is hopefully coming at CES anyway.

-Take the wi-fi Pixi, remove the CDMA radio, and sell it for $150 as the "Pixi Touch". Call it a developer platform, sel it exclusively on Palm.com, just give users & developers alike SOME kind of affordable platform to use for playing around with WebOS without having to get tangled up with carriers and contracts. The Palm braintrust must be braindead to keep overlooking this simple task. No matter how good an emulator, it does NOT replicate the full user experience of an actual device!
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

At best Palm's offerings have been an afterthought for VZ, other than a very brief period in '06 (between the the 700w VZ exclusive launch in Jan and the simultaneous 700p launch on VZ & Sprint in June).

No, Palm's best shot would've been to hit the ground running with the Pre in June---Sprint for domestic CDMA and AT&T subsidized. Or at the very least, had an unlocked GSM version ready to go all over the world alongside the Sprint version. Not having a solid GSM/global strategy really hobbled the WebOS/Pre rollout IMO. Why the huge delay in bringing the GSM to market? It was spotted at 3GSM in Barcelona in February and appeared ready to launch alongside the Sprint version.

http://www.palminfocenter.com/news/9694/gsm-palm-pre-spotted-in-the-flesh/
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

Palm has their earnings call tomorrow. i want to know one question - EXACTLY HOW MANY PRES AND PIXIS HAVE BEEN SOLD AND ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE? hopefully an ANALyst will ask the question and press for a truthful answer.

On Friday, December 18, at noon Pacific time, we will attempt to overwhelm the AT&T data network and bring it to its knees. The goal is to have every iPhone user (or as many as we can) turn on a data intensive app and run that app for one solid hour. Send the message to AT&T that we are sick of their substandard network and sick of their abusive comments. THe idea is we'll create a digital flash mob. We're calling it in Operation Chokehold. Join us and speak truth to power! (link)

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/12/17/can-the-kids-bring-att-to-its-knees/

1.) Palm has no problem in the short to medium term ("next few quarters"), with money for advertising and rolling out the next few products.

2.) Elevation Partners is not in good financial shape and is very exposed on their current investment in Palm. I *assume* this means they are not likely to have more money to invest in Palm.

3.) Elevation Partners is not in good financial shape, and their investment in Palm hasn't been wildly successful, so they would probably welcome a sale of Palm.

4.) The sum of it seems to be Palm in the next few quarters is expected to quite aggressively try to gain a profitable foothold in the market, but if that doesn't work about a year from now they will be in serious trouble and will really need someone to buy them.

Is that about right? Please correct me.

nastebu wrote:

2.) Elevation Partners is very exposed across all their investments. I personally think we have seen the last of this particular Sugar Daddy's gifts to Palm.

3.) Elevation Partners is up 60% right now. Not a "10 bagger" but certainly nothing to sniff at. They would probably welcome a sale of Palm to an insane company willing to pay the going rate for almost-literally nothing.

4.) True. IMHO the stock price has to go LOTS lower to be a buyout target by anyone, and it remains TOTALLY unclear why ANYONE who CAN buy them would want to buy them for any price.

We'll see how things go.