Analysts Cite Slumping Pre Sales
Palm has received a couple of analyst downgrades today. In new client research reports, two market analysts are getting bearish on Palm citing slumping sales of the Palm Pre and even possible production cuts.
Via Tech Trader Daily, Morgan Joseph analyst Ilya Grozovsky writes in a research note that his checks find Pre sales in July were down to about 100,000 units, from 200,000 in June - and that August is tracking to be even lower than July. He cut his estimate on Pre untis for the August quarter to 350,000 from 400,000, which already was low relative to Street expectations. He also contends that non-Pre shipments in the quarter were lower than expected due to cannibalization by the Pre.
Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar also concurs on the above sentiments. His estimate is that Palm shipped under 300k units in May and June and feels that Pre momentum has peaked. He also says that production levels have been cut "due to weakening demand."
Both analysts have lowered their ratings on Palm's stock and are also raising questions about the companies long term prospects.
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RE: palm pre
RE: stock doesn't agree with them
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
Hrm
I highly doubt Palm can just go and cancel the exclusivity agreement unilaterally.
Oh, and I guess better advertising would be nice too, though I don't pay attention to much mass media to notice anyways.
Gonna actually try Palm OS now, but on the Nokia N800 via Garnet VM! ---> Never mind that, just using the 755p instead.
Completely Unsurprising
The Palm OS loyalist/PIC faithful perspective:
1. Feeble PIM apps and reduced usability in "real life" usability in comparison to the old Palm OS devices. FAR too much emphasis on silly fluff in WebOS instead of building a user-friendly, business-class device that can also do media and web 2.0 stuff. Palm has strayed too far from their core strengths of Palm OS: PIM & efficient data input. A front-facing QWERTY + touchscreen + hard buttons is a combination that CANNOT be beat for data input and retrieval efficiency. In additioin, the flexibility, huge number of 3rd party apps is nowhere to be seen for WebOS nor and it's unlikely to ever appear.
2. Pre is a poorer value proposition in so many ways in comparison to say, a "free" Centro (no memory card slot, no voice recorder, no voice dialing, no video recorder, no hard app buttons, no IR, DTG full version not included, no stylus)
3. Many missing or half-baked features at launch as well as presently (video recording, DUN tethering, voice dialing, voice memo, etc--see above)
4. Huge gap between January CES announcement and June retail availability. The 5-month delay caused many to jump ship and go elsewhere.
5. Nearly of the "old faithful" Palm OS developers left for the greener iPhone/iPod Touch pastures ages ago.
5. Numerous hardware shortcomings: Too little RAM, no memory expansion, weak battery capacity, fragile/spotty build quality, no soft-touch exterior coating, etc
6. Classic emulator should have been announced at CES (or immediately afterwards), if only to generate good buzz from the Palm OS faithful.
7. The cannibalization comments above don't surprise me a bit. Palm should have either EOL'd the Centro earlier this year OR refreshed it again and continued to sell it alongside the Pre through year-end until Eos/Pixie is ready.
I also would have expected more of a halo effect from the Pre on the Treo Pro.
The "average Joe" consumers:
1. Not offering "paranoid" users an option for some kind of desktop synchronization hurts, especially with Apple adding a lot of Pre-like features to iTunes 9
2. Not offering an opt-out and/or full disclosure of Palm's Orwellian data monitoring of user habits (see yesterday's story).
3. Palm's half-baked iTunes "solution". They should have either worked out a PROPER solution with Apple prior to launch or just left it at USB drag'n drop and been done with it.
4. The Pre's poor value (both actual and perceived) vs. a $99 iPhone, a $99 BB Storm or a $199 iPhine 3GS (etc etc). The mail-in rebate foolishness from Sprint and limited Pre stocks at launch from BB and others only made matters worse
5. The rotten ad campaign from Palm and too little promotion from Sprint. 'Nuff said.
6. Sprint, Sprint, Sprint. At the very least, Palm should only have given Sprint a 90-day exclusive on the device and then had an otherwise identical Verizon Pre out in time to catch the pre-holiday sales. Otherwise, not having a GSM Pre is a fatal blow in so many ways.
7. The Pre launch was basically lost amongst the continued hoopla of Apple's WWDC '09
Misc:
1. The delayed SDK. Also 'nuff said.
2. Palm should have really borrowed another page from Apple's playbook and released a cut-down "Pre Touch" non-phone device (see Creative's recent Zii Egg strategy). This could have let Palm hit the ground running in markets outside the US with *SOMETHING* running WebOS that would not be tied to those troublesome carrier approvals, certifications, and exclusives. It also would have been a gigantic boon to WebOS development if a "Pre Touch" device could have been released earlier this year alongside the SDK in a $200-$300 package in order to give developers a headstart.
If Palm's four-year old + discontinued PDAs are still generating a bit of revenue for them, a modern PDA/PMP/MID with wi-fi instead of WWAN could certainly at least find a certain audience (users in countries where Palm has no carrier partnerships, frugal Mike Cane types etc).
3. The CEO changeover should have occured either earlier or later. Taking place in the immediate aftermath of the biggest launch in Palm's history seems to be an odd time and perhaps a sign of more drastic measures to come (Palm being acquired etc).
4. For one, Palm should have announced a followup product ahead of time and said that the Eos/Pixie is coming soon-ish. Instead of repeating the m500/Osborne effect, I think this would have assured many users that WebOS is not a "one and done" deal and that if the Pre isn't to their liking, a smaller/cheaper GSM device is coming soon.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: Completely Unsurprising
That didn't hurt iPhone.
RE: Completely Unsurprising
hkk -
great analysis.
MikeCon -
>That didn't hurt iPhone.
yes, but the iPhone didn't have to compete with an "iPhone".
RE: Completely Unsurprising
that also hurt palm because initially the buzz was:
1. that the pre did all these things the iPhone couldn't.
2. The pre was much faster than the iPhone
os 3.x stuck a pin in argument #1
iPhone 3gs decimated argument #2
The only remaining argument - the pre can multitask 3rd party apps. The dearth of said apps weakens that argument.
RE: Completely Unsurprising
Dammit. You're right. Stop doing that.
RE: Completely Unsurprising
Allow me to cherry-pick some of the stuff you wrote for debate. (Also, have I mentioned how agonising it is to not be able to try a Pre for myself lately?)
A front-facing QWERTY + touchscreen + hard buttons is a combination that CANNOT be beat for data input and retrieval efficiency.
Completely agreed - and don't forget a D-pad & stylus too. (I remember being flayed for saying that when the iPhone came out...) I think the Eos/Pixie/whatever may actually turn out to be a better phone than the Pre in that respect.
At the same time, though, Palm has been long overdue for a new phone design. The Treo & Centro had been essentially the same device for four years running, and without any new PDAs to vary their lineup it made the whole company look stagnant. Meanwhile, the sheer weight of iPhone hype had created a brand-new touchscreen design paradigm - the trusty stylus was no longer welcome in the mass market.
While its utility is compromised by it, the Pre's curvy slide-out design is a very welcome breath of fresh air for Palm. Try as I might, I cannot imagine a device that looked like a Treo getting the same reaction from the crowd at CES. And they have tried to bring some of their old mojo into the new generation. The gesture area, for instance - that's a great idea. Your greasy mitts don't always need to be swiping over what you're looking at. Or the wave launcher.
Basically, as much as I love the classic hardware design, it had to go to sleep for awhile. Evidence? Check out the Treo Pro - arguably the sexiest candybar Palm ever made. Seems to have been a bit of a flop (although we can chalk a lot of that up to WinMob).
In additioin, the flexibility, huge number of 3rd party apps is nowhere to be seen for WebOS nor and it's unlikely to ever appear.
I completely disagree here, and I think it's far, far too early to be making such calls in any case. I base this not on my own feelings but on the opinions of others who've worked with webOS and Mojo. That Infoworld review of the SDK sums it up perfectly: yes, it's still an immature platform, but the potential it promises is huge and there's no reason to believe Palm won't keep improving it - they're fighting for survival.
And then there's webos-internals.org, which already offers so many excellent little hacks and mods that are letting users customise the OS how they see fit. heck, you can run proper Linux software on it! It's the geek user's wet dream!
Numerous hardware shortcomings: Too little RAM, no memory expansion, weak battery capacity, fragile/spotty build quality, no soft-touch exterior coating, etc
I'll agree with you on memory expansion and the weak battery. Build quality, well, I'll reserve judgement till I have my own. Soft-touch coating is overrated, IMO - makes it harder to slip in and out of a pocket.
But coming from a GSM Treo/Centro, there's also a number of pluses: 3G, GPS, Wi-Fi, bigger screen, superior processor.
3. Palm's half-baked iTunes "solution". They should have either worked out a PROPER solution with Apple prior to launch or just left it at USB drag'n drop and been done with it.
Oh please. Apple have zero interest in letting anyone else into their exclusive party. At the same time, the iTunes ecosystem is simply too massive for any sane company to ignore. Palm's solution, far from being half-baked, is the best one available. If a user want to use iTunes to manage their media (God help them), they can use iTunes - not PalmTunesSync or whatever other third-party middleman.
It amazes me that you'd really be against this, Kris. While it may cause user uncertainty in the short-term with the a constant back-and-forth update war, in the long view it's a step forward for interoperability. Depending on how all of this plays out with the USB forum, it may even encourage other manufacturers to pull the same trick. The precedent set and wider compatibility that would result can only be of benefit to all of us, whether or not we use iTunes.
The only loser is Apple, for whom I find it difficult to weep when they are rolling around naked in a pile of money. (And even then, it's not much of a loss, because they'll have more customers shopping in their online store and using their software and more opportunities to convince people to buy Apple hardware.)
Tim
Apologies in advance for all emoticons, LOLs, ROFLs, and any other form of depressingly annoying Internet shorthand that appears in my posts.
Treo 270 -> Treo 650 -> Treo 680 -> Centro
RE: Completely Unsurprising
#1 iTunes ain't important to ME in the slightest. If Apple issued a press release tomorrow that the iTunes app was being discontinued and they were immediately shuttering the iTunes store, I'd just chuckle to myself and smile at my big ol' rack of CDs that I can rip, rerip, encode, copy and manilulate the bits however as I desire. But I do understand that for some silly reason, iTunes is a BIG DEAL to a lot of people. Therefore, I think we are in for a lot of back & forth between Palm & Apple and that will eventually lead to a lot of grief for iTunes-luvin' Pre owners.
#2 Oh, and of course I didn't forget d-pad + stylus. In my mind, if you have a hard button, then there's only naturally gonna be a d-pad alongside 'em.
Ditto to the Pixie/Eos being a potentially better device. However, if the rumors are correct, I'm a bit worried about not only its keyboard size but its screen size, the oddball resolution (not 320x480) breaking compatibility with Pre apps, and the feeble amount of fixed internal storage.
#3 I think the Treo Pro should have been a bigger hit, aye. IMO that particulawr device would have benefitted from:
1. Having a very slightly larger 'smile' keyboard with Treo 680/750 style keys
2. Running a different OS (WM 6.5 or even Garnet)
3. Being available subsidized & officially on AT&T upon launch last year. Also, the huge delay in getting the CDMA version out really hurt it and it's been in the Pre's shadow throughout '09.
P.S. I recently took a tour through BB Mobile and a mall wireless store and determined that every smartphone currently available in the USA is shit for one reason or another. All of the mobile OSes still suck, most smartphones have compromised hardware design in one way or another and the handful of units with solid hardware is usually mated to WinMob. And of course carrier availability/exclusivity is always a huge bummer. We *NEED* ALP in the worst way possible, Lefty! Hurry!
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: Completely Unsurprising
I agree with basically everything you said. In fact, I'd say that Palm screwed themselves again by trying to "me too" the iPhone. The iPhone has some nice features, BUT - its popularity is based upon the Apple Cult. No matter how much Palm chases Apple - they're still going to come off as a pale wannabe. The Pre just looks and functions like a knockoff iPhone with a keyboard and a load of lag. No expandable card, cheese-cutter corners, gummy-bear keys, yuck! The Pre actually makes the lousy Blackberry attractive - at least BB has some great enterprise class thinking behind the OS, even though the hardware sucks beyond logic.
Palm went further in committing hari-kari by actively screwing the customers that LIKED the PalmOS they've invested in since as early as 1996. Say what you want about the lag, the lack of "multitasking" and pretty graphics and fonts, but my damn Treo 755 can run circles around the iPhone for functionality, speed of entry, and comfort in the hand. Since the Pre is nearly an iPhone clone - then it is reasonable to expect that the 755 exceeds it, also. Tethering? Expandable memory and local backup and desktop sync? NOT.
Palm could have slapped a 256MB chip into their Treo line, updated the awful ROM image with current versions of DTG and Googlemaps (and add the location API), and I'd have bought one with another 2-year contract. I don't want a gummy Centro, and I certainly don't want a "cloud-only" POS unexpandable stylus-free toy with tiny, sticky keys, and I know I'm not alone. And Wincemob ain't a panacea, either.
Treo 755p FTW!!! (sorry, Preh).
RE: Completely Unsurprising
>design. The Treo & Centro had been essentially the same device for four
>years running, and without any new PDAs to vary their lineup it made the
>whole company look stagnant.
The company was stagnant.
>Meanwhile, the sheer weight of iPhone hype had created a brand-new
>touchscreen design paradigm - the trusty stylus was no longer welcome in
>the mass market.
If it was just hype, why did Palm hire several ex-Apple people?
>The gesture area, for instance - that's a great idea. Your greasy mitts don't
>always need to be swiping over what you're looking at. Or the wave
>launcher.
It's a great idea - in theory. When you've actually used it, let me know. Not an ideal implementation.
>That Infoworld review of the SDK sums it up perfectly: yes, it's still an
>immature platform, but the potential it promises is huge and there's no
>reason to believe Palm won't keep improving it - they're fighting for survival.
That's also the reason to believe that they won't be able to improve it - they're fighting for survival. They'll be looking to raise another 300 million to keep the doors open soon.
>But coming from a GSM Treo/Centro, there's also a number of pluses: 3G,
>GPS, Wi-Fi, bigger screen, superior processor.
Bigger screen? Wait until you look at it in person - the screen was the most disappointing aspect.
>Oh please. Apple have zero interest in letting anyone else into their
>exclusive party. At the same time, the iTunes ecosystem is simply too
>massive for any sane company to ignore. Palm's solution, far from being
>half-baked, is the best one available.
The best one available? Meaning it's not an ideal solution. Thus, like your brain, half-baked.
>If a user want to use iTunes to manage their media (God help them), they
>can use iTunes - not PalmTunesSync or whatever other third-party
>middleman.
You're like a dog with a bone - give it up already.
RE: Completely Unsurprising
RE: Completely Unsurprising
RE: Completely Unsurprising
You didn't read it because you're an ass?
That's a real shocker!!!
Palm up for sale?
Dell apparently has its own phone thing going now, with Android in China. So that crushes Gekko's hopes and dreams. Ha!
So who would jump Palm's bones?
Bueller? Bueller?
RE: Palm up for sale?
MikeCon - what would make you think that? IMO, Palm's share price is still vastly expensive when compared to its revenue and profits. and frankly, i'm not impressed with the Pre, WebOS, or Palm's management, marketing, and engineering staff either. so what is a fool buying for $2+ BILLION???????
RE: Palm up for sale?
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: Palm up for sale?
>an "iPhone".
The original iPhone was such a move forward - in both hardware and software - compared to anything on the market at that time.
The Pre is more of a move sideways - mojo doesn't appear to be all that (yet) - and webos needs time to mature and be further developed.
The hardware is half-baked. The build quality is mediocre - the cpu and gpu are very good, but 8 gig for a $199 device is laughable.
RE: Palm up for sale?
bosco:
Why would a company like Dell or Acer spend billions buying Palm when they can hop on the Android bandwagon for zero licensing expense?
IMO, Android is destined to become the Windows Mobile of the future - running on a million different phones, but only a few of them offering the tight integration of hardware and software that can make a device really special.
Mind you, that's not to say that I think a Palm acquisition is likely.
RE: Palm up for sale?
Also, I forsee Blackberry's aging OS coming back to bite them in a few years. Call me a fanboy, but I truly believe Apple is in the best position of all companies in the smartphone business.
RE: Palm up for sale?
I think you are underestimating Android and what can be done to tweak it by the phone manufacturers themselves. But I do think that there will always be space for companies who can innovate with their own OS.
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
RE: Palm up for sale?
RE: Palm up for sale?
I understand that you think I'm underestimating Android, but I really think the tech community is overestimating it because of it's infatuation with opensource. In reality, the average consumer doesn't care.
RE: Palm up for sale?
Call me a fanboy...
You're a fanboy. :P
...but I truly believe Apple is in the best position of all companies in the smartphone business.
I don't think anyone could disagree with that. From a mindshare perspective alone their position must be terrifying to competitors, who have all been summarily reduced to being viewed through the prism of "Is it as good as the iPhone?"
Tim
Treo 270 -> Treo 650 -> Treo 680 -> Centro
Please, no replies from jca666us.
RE: Palm up for sale?
"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose." - Bill Gates
"Death can come swiftly to a market leader. By the time you have lost the positive-feedback cycle it's often too late to change what you've been doing, and all of the elements of a negative spiral come into play." - Bill Gates, "The Road Ahead", Chapter 3
"In this business, by the time you realize you're in trouble, it's too late to save yourself. Unless you're running scared all the time, you're gone." - Bill Gates
RE: Palm up for sale?
"Superior" hardware running "superior" OS is no guarantee of anything. (Apple's "superiority" is not necessarily established, but for the sake of argument I'll give you that.) But it's the same old story: Apple's got one way of doing it, and if you don't like that, don't try to play in their playground. One company trying to control the hardware, the software, and the data distribution. If that's what you want, great. I don't. (And as much as I don't like the computing world that Bill & Co. have created, better them than Steve & Co.)
Android is going to be running on a lot more than a few HTC devices in the very near future. (If you aren't seeing it happening, you've got blinders on.) Google is playing the game very well at the moment. If Apple and MS aren't "running scared", they are very foolish.
I agree that the average consumer doesn't care about the opensource distinction. But the phone manufacturers/carriers are the one's deciding on what OS goes into those phones, not the average consumer. Android is a compelling package from that point of view. HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Lenovo, Acer, HwaWei, Philips, Dell, etc. certainly can't put Apple's OS on those phones!
So you've got one company selling phones with the iPhone OS. By Q1 2010, let's see how many companies are selling phones (and other devices) with Android at the core.
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
RE: Palm up for sale?
RE: Palm up for sale?
>From a mindshare perspective alone their position must be terrifying to
>competitors, who have all been summarily reduced to being viewed through
>the prism of "Is it as good as the iPhone?"
In the case of the Pre - the answer is "No!"
RE: Palm up for sale?
abosco wrote:
Care to comment on the fact that all of those companies ran their hardware on Windows Mobile for the last several years, and they all got nowhere? Why would this situation be much different?
Sure.
WM sucks...
...and Android doesn't.
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
RE: Palm up for sale?
Last week saw the launch of the first phone based on Google's open-source Android platform.
But Mr Ballmer said an open-source solution would not be attractive to phone manufacturers, and predicted that Windows Mobile phones would stay ahead of Blackberry, Apple's iPhone and Google Android in the smartphone market.
"You've got to remember Android is version one....and it looks like version one," he said.
"They've got one handset maker, we've got 55. They're available through one operator, we've got 175."
RE: Palm up for sale?
Dell's Android Smartphone: New Photos and Specs
By Danny Allen, 3:15 AM on Fri Aug 14 2009, 12,960 views
http://gizmodo.com/5337228/dells-android-smartphone-new-photos-and-specs
RE: Palm up for sale?
You'll realize that Android is a solution to a problem that doesn't yet exist.
RE: Palm up for sale?
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
RE: Palm up for sale?
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
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