CNBC Gives Palm a Big Thumbs Down
Following a week of vaporizing share prices, stock downgrades and layoffs, Palm starts this week of with another negative financial portrayal. CNBC's tech reporter, Jim Goldman, has published a highly critical editorial entitled Palm Gets A Big Thumbs Down. The article largely draws upon a newly released research note from Pablo Perez-Fernandez, the wireless analyst at Global Crown Capital, who also coincidentally downgraded the stock again today.
Perez-Fernandez chides the Palm's strategy to pay a one-time, $900 million dividend to engineer Elevation's 25 percent stake last year saying "made no sense then, and is even more difficult to swallow today." He also makes the suggestion that Elevation may be looking to divest, though he basically admits this is largely his own speculation. He goes on to postulate that Palm's recent shelf registration would significantly dilute shares and might give Elevation further motivation to get out. That move would be quite extraordinary considering three of Elevation's primary leaders currently occupy seats on Palm's board.
The article doesn't get much better and it goes on to further rip Palm's decision to launch the Treo Pro without carrier support in the US and questions Colligans ability to turn the company around. Goldman suggests "Palm simply had difficulty getting manufacturing costs low enough that a carrier could cost-effectively subsidize it."
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RE: IMHO
Here's (one of) the SEC filing that explains the justification TOTALLY:
- http://tinyurl.com/palmsdefm14a
Page 27ff explain the EXCELLENT justification, in particular:
== "..[after numerous meetings] On January 5, 2007, the board of directors
== met and continued its discussion with management regarding our long-term
== financial model, including risks and opportunities associated with the model.
== Morgan Stanley presented various strategic alternatives available to us. The
== board of directors authorized management to engage in more substantive
== discussions with potential partners..."
The BoD, IOW, decided the best future was to sell Palm.
And:
== "...the board of directors discussed the Elevation proposal and the
== other transactions it was then considering. The board of directors directed
== management, in tandem with Morgan Stanley and WSGR, and under the oversight
== of the M&A Committee, to pursue further discussions with Elevation regarding
== its proposal..."
IOW, the best offer they had was EP's which included giving money back to shareholders instead of using it up.
RE: IMHO
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.—Niels Bohr
Mr. Proper Attribution Police Man will be coming by for a chat with you very soon now.
RE: IMHO
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: IMHO
Pat Horne
RE: IMHO
They hate it when I do that.
Thanks for your continuing interest, though!
RE: IMHO
== "Elevation Partners co-founder Roger McNanmee said in a statement
== that his firm has no plans to exit its investment in Palm (PALM).
== McNamee, who is a member of the Palm board, said he is "very pleased"
== with the progress the company is making..."
McNamee is on the BoD of Palm, of course, and a partnership of his (NOT Elevation Partners) continues to trade in and apparently out of Palm stock. As such, his words necessarily require the consideration of financially-based bias...
Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
Some nice side-by-side comparison shots here for those who care about such things.
Well, the Storm has been on the market for, what, 5 or 6 days officially? And I've alrady fondled two of 'em. Yet the Treo Pro has been on the market for nearly 3 months and I've yet to see a single one in the (cracked) flesh. Palm's inability to get AT&T or T-Mobile onboard with the Pro is looking like a bigger mistake by the day.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
Same here. I'm looking seriously at the Storm as my exodus. Palm may just expire and cancel everything at any day without warning. I'm hoping (against all hope) for a real Nova device, but the search has begun.
The Storm seemed very complex to get around in, but maybe that's probably from being bound into the Palm cult for so long. Beautimous display that we've been begging for around here for about 5-7 years now. It's funny how these full screen devices have taken the market by "storm", but Palm still lives on in oblivion gasping for it's final breath.
Not sure @ the click touch, although it operated relatively well. Another killer was the fact that no stylus was on board. I don't think I can operate w/out Diddlebug or an equivalent. Fingers don't cut it for notes and both keyboards (virtual or physical) or Handwriting recognition are far too restrictive for the freedom of a scribble note with lines, arrows and other freehand goodies.
I'm gonna look at the field BBOS apps and see what's available. Just getting my hedge ready for the probable soon announcement that all four of Palm's wheels have come off the Nova.
In 5 years, how hard would it have been to deliver a TT3-like phone, with internal rechargeable memory preserving battery, replaceable battery, DMA based Palm OS, incrementally updated market relevant hardware, software, and wireless compatibility? Oh, that would have been a Palm OS based Storm two years ago that would have made this device announcement a yawner. Depressing.
I may be the much foretold one who turns out the lights round here? :-
Pat Horne
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
The BBOS is a tweaked version of the Bold's. It seemed quite cumbersome to me about like the keyboard based OS that it is, with some tweaks for a virtual keyboard and touchscreen device. I'm not qualified to comment on BBOS or those devices, but that was my impressions before the VZW drone started getting itchy.
Is this thing coming GSM?
Pat Horne
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
You boys definitely need to get out more.
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
No kidding.
What happens if Palm really DOES come through with:
== "...But we're working on absolutely breakthrough designs,
== breakthrough user experience, breakthrough UI and other
== functionality on next generation systems, so we're as I said
== we're not stopping at anything short of revolutionary and
== fantastic design on at least our next generation platform
== products..."
Have you seen Boy Genius or Engadget JUST today? The home pages are FULL of competing QWERTY devices. And that sort of daily inundation has been going on for months.
There hasn't been ONE leak about Nova - not one. That's pretty amazing for an OS that's supposed to be DONE and "released" in a month. [the Fooleo, too, had pretty darn good secrecy except for one thing I saw that mentioned "UMPC-like" or something like that a week or two prior to the initial showing]
But with all those dedicated Fanboys leaving for OVERT coolness NOW, can a REALLY cool OS save Palm =later=?
This is going to be interesting.
[and I'm kinda surprised, if Nova DOES exist in last-stage-of-testing form (*), that Palm itself hasn't at least HINTED at some aspects of it - even mundane aspects that are already out at the competition]
=========
(*) If Nova is "released" (a word that has YET to be defined in this instance by Palm, BTW) in a month, then it has necessarily gone WAY beyond development into test/QA (unless, of course, Palm doesn't test before release).
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
There are ONLY two possible scenarios here. I repeat, with a huge IMHO-TWO AND ONLY TWO POSSIBILITIES:
1. Nova is progressing on schedule and is going be the perfect hybrid of classic Palm OS UI & ease-of-use with next-gen security, stability, performance and multimedia whiz-bang. It will the perfect (or at least near-perfect) amalgam of the best usability bits of Garnet, WinMob, BB OS, and Android splashed with a nice layer of Apple gloss. Its skinnable UI will be able to satisfy both the new-school finger swipe multitouch fans (ala iPhone & Storm) and old-school stylus + hard button diehard (WinMob + Palm OS).
2. Nova does not exist, never existed, and never will exist. It was just a tactic right out of the classic smoke & mirrors playbook intended to make the company's future prospects look less dismal while Elevation furiously shopped them around. The chances of seeing a shipping product with ALP in 2009 are about 10 gazillion times higher than seeing a Nova product in 2009.
Now, if there is SOMETHING in a lab somewhere called "Nova" I have a sickening feeling that it's nothing more than some rudimentary APIs and a maybe a new 3D version of the classic Palm taxicab easteregg as a proof of concept demo just to trot out at the end of the year on a CD-R and say "See? We fulfilled our pormise to our shareholders/Elevation. We delivered something by year-end" (as someone here said the other day).
SV, rest assured that IF Nova comes out in a stable, impressive, shipping device, I I will be one of the first ones to rush out to fondle/demo/test/buy one b/c none of the competing smartphone platforms out there currently do a THING for me (but I've also grown rather weary of Garnet's limitations). So while I am hoping for #1 in the options above, my gut intuition is saying it's #2 (and has been saying so for a looong time).
You're right-Fooleo's secrecy was superb but Hawkins & co. were hyping it for a LONG time prior to its official unveiling. Nova's secrecy far surpasses anything previous from Palm...which again makes me skeptical of it entirely.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
I, too, think that what is gonna be "released" will be an API set with a rudimentary UI at best (because, for example, PALM was attempting to hire UI guys within the last 6 months).
But let's say the whole shebang is ready to go December 31st!
Will the =CONSUMERS= notice its gee-whizness over and above all the myriad other devices already out?
Or will Palm once again be betting on =Fanboy= enthusiasm - a niche customer set that has shrunk dramatically due to all those myriad other...
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
If there were such a beast, Palm would have released something by now. DataViz would have show what Documents to Go would look like on Nova, Astraware would show us what Bejeweled would look like on Nova. Even a early home screen would have been put out. Secrecy is one thing but having absolutely nothing only proves that Nova doesn't really exist. Does Windows/Apple/Anyone put out a new OS without anyone laying eyes on the OS until it's shipped on a device? If and that's a BIG if Nova exists, it is either extremely far behind, or just not good enough to use...ala Cobalt. I think Palm thought they would have been bought out by now and have sold us a big lie. I understand that Palm believes they let out too much info on the Foleo too early but you do have to put out something to keep people interested.
The last known classic PDA user.
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
I can't believe that. I think SOMETHING is in there, just not sure what. I think SOMETHING will be "released" by December 31st, just not sure what...nor to whom..nor how!
But I actually sincerely believe the CFO of Palm when he says:
== "...We're anticipating that the next generation OS will be delivered
== by the end of the calendar year. And then we will start to see product
== iterations off that in the 1st half of calendar year 09..."
I really do believe him...still!
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
Look at the BB Storm--fantastic hardware (really limited only by its lack of wi-fi and the love or hate clickable touchscreen) but the OS is in no way, shape or form overhauled enough to support the touchscreen, the video is totally unaccelerated, and the horrib skinny BB system fonts continue to plague us like something straight out of 1999.
Once you take away the fluff that RIM's cooked into the Storm/Bold (and what HTC, SE and co. are trying to strap atop WinMob), you're left with something that doesn't look much better (if not worse) than Garnet. I spent some extensive time yesterday again playing with the Storm and it's tragic to see such nice hardware mated to a reasonable pricetag botched by atrocious execution. This phone (much like the Centro) does not deserve the spectacular success it's having. I would like to theorize that people are now buying devices based on marketing fluff/hype/price and any usability concerns have gone completely out the window. Someone needs to hire Rob Haitani NOW and put him to work designing SOMETHING!
To play with the "walled garden" analogy used a few times before here...Apple's still got the best UI in theory but they started with a clean sheet of paper and gave us a nicely landscaped, walled, tiny garden. This is in contrast to Palm's overgrown, neglected jungle of an OS, with RIM & the WM crowd having a few nice little cottages amidst an otherwise untamed jungle. Maybe Nova with be a nicely kept, sprawling front lawn in suburbia and give us the best of both worlds??
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: Good Treo Pro vs. Blackberry Storm comparison shots
this is actually a very interesting observation.
Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
"Unfortunately, we believe the company is about two years too late, and Nova is likely irrelevant against Apple's mobile OS X, Android S60 and Mobile Windows. Is there room for yet another mobile OS? Will developers take resources away from Apple or Android to work on Nova? We do not believe so."
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/11/24/palm-the-beginning-of-the-end/
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
ok - PIC is known as the best Palm industry analysis user comments site out there but i must say all of you are really slacking as of late. i don't know if it's because you all just don't care anymore and have given up on palm or what. the comments i've been seeing here have been insipid, intellectually lazy, and predictable. the once big thinkers here have been reduced to cracking bad jokes. it's time to kick your game up and lay some wisdom and analysis down on me.
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2008/11/24/motorola-qa30-qwerty-slider-shots-leaked-headed-to-alltel/
It's basically the sae ol', same ol' but it revisits the slider formfactor that Palm did a fair (not great, but fair) job on the T|T line and the Zire 71 (IMO a better execution of the slider concept than the T|T).
Palm just sits there with their head in the sand, oblivious that the industry is slowly but surely moving past SSS (small square screens) mated to microscopic keyboards.
Is even a tiny Centro physical QWERTY kb easier to type on that an iPhone or BB Storm onscreen kb? Well, yes it is. But is that extra keyboard comfort worth the huge tradeoff in web/photo/video/gaming capability enjoyed by these large-screened devices? He11 no(IMO)!
SSS + physical QWERTY machines will always have a niche in the market for hardware e-mail & SMS types. But it's no longer sufficent to comprise a company's entire lineup. Palm's basically perfected the SSS + front facing QWERTY keyboard on the Treo Pro. Slap an 800w-style "smile" keyboard on the Treo Pro and call it a done day. End of story. That formfactor is SHOT!
Palm simply has no more excuses. They've got an OS (WM 6.x) that, while clunky and sluggish at times, is certainly not constrained in screen res support. To keep churning out the exact same stuff they did under Garnet is just inexcusable.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + S710a
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
If nothing is shown at CES or leaks don't start SOON, what else is there to expect?
Do you need Palm's stock to go to 0.01 to catch on?
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
hey bosco - where's that "palm to iphone" article that you promised us weeks ago? first rule of business - DELIVER WHAT YOU PROMISE. no excuses, we don't want to hear them. results, boy!
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
If January comes & goes with no concrete proof of Nova, then the industry buzz will be around (take your pick) BB Storm OS updates, iPhone 3.0, BB Javelin, an Xperia X1 refresh, the first ALP handset, the next HTC uber-device etc etc etc.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
A couple articles have been published in the last two days by different authors about Dell needing to acquire someone in the smartphone space!
- http://tinyurl.com/dellbuyspalm
So maybe Yet Another Dell Buyout Rumor will save Palm, instead!
Giggle.
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
Give me a week - I've got some time off.
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
don't flatter yourself. it must have just stuck with me due to my shocking realization that i was actually debating business and technology with a bagel maker. also, i have a memory like an elephant.
Tommy DeVito: No more bagels, Billy.
Billy Batts: What?
Tommy DeVito: I said, no more bagels. Maybe you didn't hear about it, you've been away a long time. They didn't go up there and tell you. I don't make bagels anymore.
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: Nova is 'two years too late...likely irrelevant '
we're not asking for war and peace here. this friggin slacker generation.
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IMHO
For example, he says:
== "...In his note this morning, Perez-Fernandez
== chides the company's strategy to pay a one-time,
== $900 million dividend to engineer Elevation's 25
== percent stake for $325 million made no sense
== then, and is even more difficult to swallow
== today, given the company's current financial
== straits..."
but, IMHO, it made TOTAL sense in that Palm GAVE TO THE SHAREHOLDERS their cash value fully knowing their future was bleak rather than letting that cash value be used up merely sustaining itself on life-support (*).
What a GREAT idea!
Anyhow, YMMV on the quality of this particular "analyst". Just wanted to note that I am not a believer in his "analysis" and haven't been for years.
=========
(*) Palm has documented in official SEC filings the history behind The Transaction. In that history they noted that the BoD, after quite a number of meetings, decided the BEST future for Palm was for it to be sold! They ALSO documented that there were NO OFFERS (good enough in the BoD's opinion)! Thus the VERY GOOD IDEA, IMHO, given the BoD's OWN BELIEF in Palm's bleak future, to GIVE AWAY Palm's value rather than burn it up was sheer brilliance on someone's part.