IDC: Third Straight Year of Handheld Decline
The latest report out of analyst group IDC states that, the worldwide market for handheld devices experienced its fourth successive quarter of year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2004.
According to IDC’s Worldwide Handheld QView, device shipments increased 37.4% sequentially but fell 18.7% year-over-year in 4Q04 to 2.8 million units. For the full year 2004, worldwide handheld device shipments reached 9.2 million units, a decrease of 13% over 2003’s shipments of 10.6 million units.
2004 marks the first time since 1999 that worldwide handheld device shipments have slipped to under 10 million units and the third straight year of decline since the market’s peak in 2001. This distinction, underscored by the departures during the year of top vendors Sony and Toshiba, further emphasizes the increasing competition and search for relevance that handheld device vendors are facing in today’s marketplace. While vendors have seen recent successes with bundled and integrated GPS receivers, the lack of other compelling solutions beyond PIM and GPS continues to limit the vendors’ ability to expand into new market segments.
"Despite a rise in quarterly shipments due to holiday seasonality and consumer uptake of bundled and integrated GPS receivers, increasingly saturated markets and stiff competition from converged mobile devices drove the handheld device market to its third straight year of decline," said David Linsalata, analyst in IDC's Mobile Devices program. "This drop stresses the urgent need for vendors to evolve their devices beyond personal information management in order to return the market to a growth path.”
Vendor Highlights
- palmOne – palmOne continued to lead the handheld device market, posting an impressive 59.5% sequential gain in shipments. However, even the market leader continued to feel pressure from the slumping market, seen in the company's 11.1% year-over-year decrease in shipments.
- Hewlett-Packard – Despite a quarterly shipment gain of 25%, Hewlett-Packard lost 2.7% market share as a result of palmOne's strong shipment increase. The company also suffered the effects of the shrinking market, reflected in a 10.7% year-over-year drop in shipments.
- Dell – Dell, less affected by seasonality due to its direct sales model and enterprise focus, still experienced a loss of 2.2% market share during the fourth quarter. However, the company exhibited a steady 4.4% sequential growth and a strong 22% year-over-year increase thanks to strong shipments from its x30 and new x50 models.
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide Handheld Device Shipments and Market Share, 4Q 2004 (Preliminary)
| Rank | Vendor | 3Q 2004 Shipments | 4Q 2004 Shipments | 4Q 2004 Market Share |
| 1 | palmOne | 736,481 | 1,174,371 | 42.0% |
| 2 | Hewlett-Packard | 615,515 | 769,170 | 27.5% |
| 3 | Dell | 188,200 | 196,572 | 7.0% |
| 4 | Medion | 15,000 | 115,000 | 4.1% |
| 5 | Mio | 54,172 | 87,407 | 3.1% |
| Other | 426,425 | 454,347 | 16.2% | |
| Total | 2,035,793 | 2,796,867 | 100.0% |
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide Handheld Device Shipments and Market Share, 2004 (Preliminary)
| Rank | Vendor | 2003 Shipments | 2004 Shipments | 2004 Market Share |
| 1 | palmOne | 4,035,125 | 3,645,399 | 39.6% |
| 2 | Hewlett-Packard | 2,286,052 | 2,492,539 | 27.1% |
| 3 | Dell | 584,511 | 695,171 | 7.6% |
| 4 | Sony | 1,402,044 | 418,832 | 4.6% |
| 5 | Medion | 198,505 | 234,325 | 2.5% |
| Other | 2,069,613 | 1,716,895 | 18.7% | |
| Total | 10,575,850 | 9,203,161 | 100.0% |
Source: IDC, February 2, 2005
Notes:
- Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.
- Handheld devices are pocket-sized, either pen or keypad-centric, and are capable of synchronizing with desktop or laptop computers. Handheld devices are designed to access and manage data including office documents, multimedia, and games.
- Handheld devices do not include telephony but may include wireless capabilities that enable Internet access and text communication. These devices feature evolved operating systems or applications environments such as the Palm OS, Windows Mobile Pocket PC, Linux, or other proprietary platforms with the ability to download, run applications, and store user data beyond their required PIM capabilities.
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RE: What of the Treo?
-Ryan
RE: What of the Treo?
"People who think they're smart annoy those of us who are."
RE: What of the Treo?
RE: What of the Treo?
Regards
----------
Albert Cuesta
http://www.canalpda.com
RE: What of the Treo?
IDC not only excludes the Treo, which I can understand because it is a smartphone, but IDC also fails to include wireless PDAs such as the iPAQ 6315 and the RIM BlackBerries.
By excluding any device that offers WAN or WLAN connectivity, within a couple of years IDC will have defined PDAs out of existence.
RE: What of the Treo?
I love how if you slap a Wifi radio in a PDA it's still a PDA, but if you stick a CDMA or GSM radio in a PDA it's magically no longer a PDA :P
RE: What of the Treo?
I think car sales reports should exclude cars that come with high end stereo systems, since those are really just stereos, not cars.
RE: What of the Treo?
"People who think they're smart annoy those of us who are."
RE: What of the Treo?
Then reacquaint yourself with it at www.palmone.com
PalmOne themselves put it in the smartphone section of their site, differentiating it from their handhelds.
In its list of features, "phone" is listed first in "Phone, Web, Email and organizer all in one."
And later on the Treo 600 page:
"Everything a smartphone should be. It's still a smartphone. Only it's smarter. With a built-in camera and one-handed navigation, the Treo 600 makes it easy to get more done. The real beauty? It's the size of a mobile phone. Really."
In the numbers gamer here,
PDA + Phone = PDA (and maybe a smart licensee)
Phone + PDA = smartphone
RE: What of the Treo?
PDA + Phone = PDA (and maybe a smart licensee)
Phone + PDA = smartphone
Er, I seem to remember that addition is commutative. So, therefore:
PDA+Phone=Phone+PDA.
I mean, sure, if you stand to profit from selling reports that say that handhelds are going away, sure. Draw whateverlines you want. What significance does this have to a user?
Zero.
My Treo is My PDA
But they were all PDAs and no marketing report will convince me otherwise. Enough with this war of semantics. Standalone PDAs may go away someday but only because they've evolved into Smartphones. Smartphones *are* PDAs.
Why we differentiate PDAs and smartphones
I mean, sure, if you stand to profit from selling reports that say that handhelds are going away, sure. Draw whateverlines you want. What significance does this have to a user?
Zero.
Nonsense. PDA + smartphone sales are broken down to better show what the trends are. While some of the ways used to define the two basic categories are questionable, to lump them all together would be naive.
Sales figures for cars and trucks are separated for similar reasons. And like PDAs, it's now difficult to fit certain vehicles into one particular type.
KISS Principle definitions:
- "Smartphone" = PDA with integrated cellphone radio
- "PDA" = PDA without integrated cellphone radio
The significance is in manufacturers basing long term production plans on current demand for a given form factor.
******************************************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
RE: What of the Treo?
A smartphone is a PDA in phone's clothing. Smartphones are voice-centric -- the phone function takes precedence in the design.
A wireless PDA may include a cellular radio, but it is a data-centric device in which the phone capability is a secondary function.
For example, most BlackBerry users still use a cellphone, but most Treo users use it as their primary mobile phone.
RE: What of the Treo?
It would be equally stupid to not count it in lists of phones sold, because you were claiming it's really a PDA. It should be on BOTH lists.
RE: What of the Treo?
You have to draw the line somewhere, just as you would if you were counting cars and trucks. Nobody would be happy if the Humvees were counted in both groups.
So IDC draws the line where a cellular radio is embedded. Gartner has a considerably different definition that considers the device design and usage. The gap between IDC's and Gartner's PDA numbers gets bigger every quarter.
It's cyclical, just like the economy
The fact is, the economy was just passing it's peak in 2001, which was when handheld sales were at their highest. After it started to decline and then suffered a serious setback with Sept. 11, people started saving their extra money in case things got hard. When the economy picks up, so will sales.
_________________
Sean
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
There goes that hypothesis...
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
But I recall it being the same way with PCs twenty years ago. People just didn't "get" what they could do for you, and it took an overwhelming pressense in everyday life for it to just become normal to people. Same thing will happen with PDAs (or "Smartphones" or whatever they may call them...even if they are PDAs).
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
-----------------
My wife has to sell a lot of candles (www.ccandles.com) to buy her new Palm.
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
There goes that hypothesis..."<<
People are spending SOME money in SOME segments, yes. But it's not yet enought to make businesses feel comfortable about increased spending or investment, including on things like PDA's. If they it were, then we'd all have our dream jobs by now, wouldn't we? =P
Seriously, if Palm et all could make these things more attractive than laptops to consumers, I wager they would see a lot more consumer sales in the future. But even the capabilities PDA's do have aren't promoted enough by any of the PDA makers, so the average Joe still looks at it as an expensive calander/planner. PDA's as a whole need and deserve better mindshare.
_________________
Sean
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
There goes that hypothesis..."<<
People are spending SOME money in SOME segments, yes. But it's not yet enought to make businesses feel comfortable about increased spending or investment, including on things like PDA's. If they it were, then we'd all have our dream jobs by now, wouldn't we? =P
Seriously, if Palm et all could make these things more attractive than laptops to consumers, I wager they would see a lot more consumer sales in the future. But even the capabilities PDA's do have aren't promoted enough by any of the PDA makers, so the average Joe still looks at it as an expensive calander/planner. PDA's as a whole need and deserve better mindshare.
_________________
Sean
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.
RE: It's cyclical, just like the economy
//QUOTE
I don't understand why so many people don't use/"get" what PDAs are about. I've been asked by different people why I don't just use pen and paper. My response is...should I go back to using pen and paper instead of a computer? I mean it's like they just don't get it. You've got a portable PC right in your hand, access to almost anything you need right there.
//END
First off, I'm sure some of them do get it. They just feel they don't need it. I certainly get what camera phones and ipods are about, but I'm just not sold despite them being great devices. A cam phones jacks up the price of the phone, requires a 2 year contract in many cases, and adds unneccessary extra monthly charges. For the price of an ipod, i'd rather get a better PDA. I don't need THAT much music. I listen to it in small chunks at at time.
Otherwise, I don't buy it. It's certainly NOT TRUE with desktops and laptops. The vast majority of ppl who use those haven't given up on paper, and neither do PDA users. PDA users simply put more stuff into electronic format to take advantages of its features and convenience.
hp MIA?
RE: hp MIA?
I've only seen the new HP's at the Darth Vader Convention. Not suprisingly, they are losing market share in a hurry with those ugly things. Wow. IMO the iPAqs went from 1st to worst in a hurry.
Dell picked up their far-eastern design firm and viola market share is increasing.
The much maligned PalmOne is amazingly still hanging strong. Funny how they have a knack at survival.
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: hp MIA?
It's amazing indeed how well P1 hangs in there despite an aging, underwhelming lineup that doesn't have uniform PalmOne branding on its handhelds. Let's see what happens this spring/fall if they actually come out with some compelling new handhelds that offer reasonable bang for the $.
RE: hp MIA?
From the numbers above, I'd guess if they were present, HP's shipments would be double, and PalmOne would be left at or below Dell's numbers (Treo's excepted of course).
Moreover I'd be fine with that. If PalmOne wants to hang their future on Treos (which the absence of PDA's their installed user base are asking for, and their competition in the PPC camp are providing, seems to indicate), let them do so.
At this late date in the sagging platform, I don't care whose name is on the PDA, as long as it's running PalmOS, and is finally running on the hardware of the Jones'.
PalmOne's numbers decline quarter after quarter not because of the reasons they spout, but because users like me stick with their Tungsten C's and T3's until someone comes out with something iPaq-like or better. At this point it looks more likely that MS will get the PocketPC(or whatever it's called this week) to something viable before PalmOne gets back to viable hardware. It's 2005 and PalmOne's latest Tungsten still fails to include basic features that HandEra shipped in 2001:
-dual slots (with driver support for a *wide* range of non-palmone 3rd party cards, including ethernet, WiFi, bluetooth, CDPD, Barcode wand/laserscanner/hand scanner, GPS, etc)
-standard DC port
-user-replaceable lithium ion battery
-an LED that shows charging status and battery info in the launcher that even displays the discharge rate in milliamps.
-built-in backup to card software
-voice recording with no comprimises (a mic, dedicated button, and the ability to play these sounds in the built in file manager, as voice attachments to ToDo's, or play a voice memo as an alarm attached to a Datebook item). Granted these last features were in their OS4 which was under non-public beta for much of the 330's life but not released before they were edged out of the market.
Happily most of the rest of their innovations have made it into at least some of PalmOne's models.
But can we standardize of a robust case enclosure and a connector already? Instead of this waffling back and forth between metal and platic in the Tungsten line. And you've sold your last sled like accessory to me with this connector change again. I've got even *less* reason to buy a PalmOne device as my next replacement now don't I? That's like a phone carrier enticing a customer to renew their contract by saying "oh by the way, you have to pick a new phone number too).
I got no more patience for PalmOne's reasons for not putting features A, B, C *and* D, into a device when HandEra did it 4 years ago, and HP and Dell do it daily today, and for a lower sticker price.
Same rant I make every year, only many paragraphs shorter. PalmOne, build them or get out. PalmSource - Your licensing people aren't getting it done. Get it *done*.
Enough with the whining about declining market share. *You* make the market. Reference the ipod, and Mac Mini product segments, as imperfect products as they are, they go a *lot* further towards meeting expectations than the Tungsten "T5". Apple *made* their market, even as Palm did back in the day. Get back to making your market. Some 4000 years ago, the concept was you reap what you sow (Job 4:8 I believe). Today the contemporary business translation is, if you build crap, you get crappy quarter after quarter sales figues.
Symbian OS™ version 9
Oh where oh where can it beeeee?
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
Cobalt well kick the ass of Symbian and Window Mobile just wait and see!
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
Just to through a little salt onto the wound what if PalmOne put Cobalt onto the TE2?
The world will end in 2006. Just as it was predicted in the bible along with the release of Microsoft Longhorn.... :p
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
2006, who claim this! Palmone will release Cobalt when their business demand it.
And palmsource is surly improving Cobalt and adding more feature to it and give a damn about Palmones release plans!
Perhaps when Palmone releases Cobalt it will be version 6.(3-x)!
Just because Cobalt is not released it doesn’t mean that symbian or winodws are ahead of the competition.
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
and other great hits like, "the blue crow flies at midnight".
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
I use windows, Symbian, and palm OS.
Even the MP3 player crashes to often on Symiban. Do you think I would trust the OS with advanced applications?
Window, that's nothing more than eye candy, and a worthless bundle of Microsoft in-house applications.
In case both of them were well ahead of Garnet, not to mention Cobalt, the Treo 650 would not have been so successful.
RE: Symbian OS™ version 9
Why I no longer have a handheld...
I used Palms for many years, but found I only really used them for calendaring and to-do management. They made poor game machine and many of the apps on them did not fit my needs. Writing on them was never fast and the biggest gripe I had was the syncing between the Palm and my Lotus Notes calendar. Changes to repeating entries were always a problem.
I used to carry both a Palm and my laptop everywhere. Now it's just my laptop. I put my next few days of calendering on a sleeve on my laptop so I can quickly glance at it. I simply don't need another device attached to my belt at work.
I think this is the case with others. Also, the fact that laptops are so darn cheap now and offer so much more functionality, there is less of a reason to go to a handheld.
That's my experience.
Mark
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What of the Treo?
Handheld devices do not include telephony but may include wireless capabilities that enable Internet access and text communication. These devices feature evolved operating systems or applications environments such as the Palm OS, Windows Mobile Pocket PC, Linux, or other proprietary platforms with the ability to download, run applications, and store user data beyond their required PIM capabilities.
END QUOTE
Thus, none of the ONE MILLION Treos supposedly sold aren't counted? Smooth.
"People who think they're smart annoy those of us who are."