Treo 700p, Hollywood, Lowrider Treos Coming Next Year
Sagio Investments, one of the largest Palm shareholders, has released a new investment report on Palm Inc. The report details Palm's current business strategy and market analysis. The report even goes on to detail a number of future Treo product releases for 2006.
The Palm research report has been posted by Sagio Investments here (.pdf link).
Highlights Include:
- Smartphones represented 67% of revenues in 1Q06, growing 167% yoy. Palm also picked up market share in the US with 31% of the market second only to RIMM (55%). PALM had 11% of worldwide market share behind both RIMM (22%) and NOKIA (17%).
- Palm's handheld market-share in the US is 61%
- According to industry report the market for data enabled devices (Treo and blackberry line) will grow tenfold by 2008. Passing from an estimate 4 millions devices to an estimate 40 millions.
- They claim Push Email is the first real killer-app for Smartphones and compares it to the introduction on of spreadsheets and Word for PC.
- Palm has a competitive advantage because it can run the most Push email systems on the market
- Palm has a very high chance to ship over 2.5 million Smartphones in fiscal 2006
- They conclude that Palm's stock valuation is currently "cheap" and compare it's price to Apple Computer's before the company introduced the iPod line.
New Treo Products
The report also details that the company has learned that Palm will introduce several new Treo models in 2006. These include the Treo 700w (the Windows Mobile Treo), a 700p (the same model running Palm OS Garnet) as well as two new designs code-named "Hollywood" and "Lowrider".
We know that PALM will introduce four new models in CY 06. In January they will introduce the already announced Treo 700 Windows which will be a Verizon exclusivity it will be the first EV-DO Treo on the market. Around the same time we believe PALM will launch a Treo 700p running PALM OS on the Sprint network, both devices will keep same form factor and will capitalize on the Treo strong foothold in the US enterprise Market.We also learned that PALM will be launching two new products around March 06 codenamed “Hollywood” and “Lowrider”. According to the Morgan Stanley analyst in Asia (covers HTC) the estimate production output will be 200K devices/month.
“Hollywood” will be a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM first attempt at the European GSM market. We know the phone will have no external antenna and will probably he launched by Cingular in the US.
“Lowrider” will be a sub-$300 devices utilizing previous generation radios and providing PALM with an entry level PDA.
UPDATE: The Palm Treo 700p has been officially announced.
Thanks to David Beers for the tip.
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RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
In any case, I would agree that wireless will be where the growth will be for Palm.
I hope that was a draft report though, if anyone at my firm released something that hastily written....
They also said this, pulled from my stock screen:
Palm-PALM third largest holder demands steps be taken to boost stock-Bloomberg Sagio Investment Management SA, owner of 5% of PALM shares, plans to deliver a letter today to management outlining actions the company should take, including a share buyback or sale of company, according to Bloomberg.
Does PALM even have enough cash for a share buyback? I haven't looked at the numbers...it certainly seems like blatant boosterism on the part of Sagio. ie it's bordering on "greenmail"
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greenmail.asp
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Apparently, they've got $411M in cash and a $60M piece of real estate that's on the market (or could go on the market). That really does sound like a pile.
You guys are all kind of missing the point, as far as I'm concerned. Forget about the obvious spin of the sales data and consider what parts of this we could reasonably assume are accurate (i.e. that Sagio had no incentive to exaggerate or that we can corroborate from other sources).
This is the second source that has identified 4 Treos that Palm will be releasing in the first half of next year. Two 700 models (Windows and Palm OS) in Jan or Feb, an antenna-less (presumably more stylish) Treo called "Hollywood" between Mar and May, and an entry level sub-$300 Treo that lacks the 3G radio called "Lowrider" around the same time as Hollywood. There's a range of opinion about the release dates, but corroboration on all the other points.
It's not like the analysts are thrilled about this rapid succession of releases. Forbes actually said it would limit PALM's upside prospects, which doesn't sound like boosterism to me.
Perhaps the most interesting piece of information comes at the end of the letter. Sagio is *plenty* critical of Palm's management right now. They go so far to say that if the management doesn't execute quickly on a laundry list of complaints the Board of Directors should consider selling the company to a consortium or another key player in the industry. It sounds to me that given the financial picture they've painted, the fact of the huge position in PALM they've taken, and the sharp criticism of the management, they are actually planning to agitate for selling the company.
That's a pretty interesting window into the mind of one of PALM's largest shareholders and may very well be a harbinger of the future.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
Hollywood runs WM5
I think this company is just a corporate raider, 80's style, leveraging their position to suck out any value from the host (e.g. its mountain of cash), and then discarding the bleeding corpse.
Now if they do have inside information, and we can take some of what they say at face value, they said WM5 is very important for Europe, where POS has poor traction, and also said the antenna-less Hollywood is destined for Europe. Connecting the two, it implied Hollywood runs WM5....if you can believe a word they say...
In Europe where PALM market share is only 5% we think that Microsoft alliance will give an immediate boost to sales and also expand carrier relationship since most of them already support Windows mobile 5.0.
and
Presently PALM has a very strong market position in the US with 31% of market share but is currently very weak in EMEA (4%) and Asia Pacific (5%) The weakness in Europe is mainly explained by 3 factors
- External antenna disliked by fashion sensitive Europeans
- Lack of support and following for PALM operating systems
- No 3G radio and poor camera quality
All this concerns will be taken care of with PALM new product code named Hollywood which will be introduced in May 06.
and
“Hollywood” will be a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM first attempt at the European GSM market. We know the phone will have no external antenna and will probably he launched by Cingular in the US.
Surur
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
They have a $60 million piece of property on sale that cost them more than $100 million AND they might not even get $60 million for it (THEIR estimate of its value, not the Real Estate Market's!).
Sheesh.
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Actually, forget the cash. I was just answering hoodoo's question. I'm more interested in assessing the validity of the release schedule now that we've heard this from a couple of different sources. And I'm curious what others think about Sagio's rather aggressive shot across the bow of Palm's management.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
I think this company is just a corporate raider, 80's style, leveraging their position to suck out any value from the host (e.g. its mountain of cash), and then discarding the bleeding corpse.
Right, that's my concern. The preoccupation with the cash. The fact that they are looking at real estate (which they say no other analyst has bothered to notice). Their concerns seem nakedly financial, with little regard to operational impact, product vision or long term health of the brand. I got a bad feeling when they said Palm should aggressively cut back on its warranty commitments, for example.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Sagio describes themselves as being involved in "alternative" investments...AKA a Hedge Fund..one of their funds is even called the "Sniper" fund. Their main incentive is to attempt to realize as full a value as possible for PALM shares and as high a return as possible for their investors.
They list in their letter a ton of positive comments but also the ultimatum style comments are interesting. Curiously, if you read the last line of the letter that describes their investment philosophy:
"Sagio's trading approach also applies principles of cognitive and evolutionary psychology to financial market behavior."
I think they're taking that approach here, and giving PALM a not-so-gentle kick in the arse.
I also find interesting the 13G they filed declaring the 5% ownership of PALM: "By signing below I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the securities referred to above were not acquired and are not held for the purpose of or with the effect of changing or influencing the control of the Issuer of the securities and were not acquired and are not held in connection with or as a participant in any transaction having that purpose or effect."
http://www.sagioinvest.com/reps/Sagio_Investments_Schedule_13G.pdf
That kinda contradicts the letter they wrote to PALM!
A Sales Brochure
Sagio spells it out on thier site:
http://www.sagioinvest.com/investment/investment.asp
Their policy is buy companies with goodwill that are on their last legs, puff up their books/branding by bullying and P.R. puffery, then bail out when idiots like us buy their stock. This is unlike Texas Pacific Group, who buy ailing companies with great goodwill and semi-strong balance sheets (J. Crew, Vespa, Ducati, etc.) and hold them till they become hits again.
There's nothing wrong with Sagio's strategy. They wouldn't be a 5% shareholder if Palm had listened to its fans and competition.
My only question is this: will the 700p have a sniveling 240x240 screen like the 700w? How does that constitute an upgrade? From what I can tell, the 650 is close to perfect. Stick in EVDO/3G/UMTS and a 2megapixel camera and you're back on top.
NX70 addict...
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
The Palm OS software base requires 320x320, so they'll sit tight with it.
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Sure the WinMob will have the "advanced" OS and a faster CPU but the Palm version will (likely) be a few $ cheaper, have a smaller antenna and a larger/higher-res screen.
Good for Palm to level the playing field (assuming they do all of the above, of course!)
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
'“Hollywood” will be a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM first attempt at the European GSM market'
First attempt at Euro GSM market?. What was the Treo 600 then? It was a GSM phone released into to the Euro market within weeks of it's US launch. Now, I hear pedants screaming it was Handspring but I shall ignore you.
Let's hope these new phones are the dog bollocks, because they will have to be a great deal better than the Treo 600/650/700 to move in the European market.
Fish
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
The "analysts" (psychics) report stated that the 700p will use the same form factor as the 700w. This sounds a lot more like the Palm I know. I cannot imagine them going for a new form factor just for a Palm OS version. They have tapped HTC again for the W version and presumably would save the coin by being able to run both devices down the same line with mostly overlapping components. Save the screen and possibly not quite identical momma-boards.
Personally, I am not nearly as attracted to the 700w as the 650s, due to it clunkier corporate look and squarish lines. But the black color scheme is nice IMO. Anyway, I expect them to maximize the economies by making the devices like twins, except for the ROM/RAM/Display and possibly cosmetics. Hey! How about a dual-boot?
Sadly, this scenario means that Palm expects to "go it" again for a year + with that protuding beast on top of the Treo. Another perplexing decision from the "Big Orange". :-(
Maybe it's time for the Treo Flipper?
http://www.churchoflivingfaith.com/images/treoflipper.jpg
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Who are you calling PEDANTICAL???
;-O
[Private joke for the Palminfocenter regulars.]
Let's hope these new phones are the dog bollocks, because they will have to be a great deal better than the Treo 600/650/700 to move in the European market.
It's taken over three years for Palm + Handspring to figure out that Europeans don't like bricks with external antennae. I wonder if it's too late to remedy the situation?
TVoR
------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------
The Palm eCONomy = Communism™
The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038
NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
http://bssc.sel.sony.com/Professional/navitus/index.html
Do note that it's not compatible with MS Pros but I hear it's gonna give the LifeDrive a run for its money!
LOL!
_______________________________________________________
Pat/Voice;
Remember that leaked image that was on someone's blog back in September or so? It was of the supposed Treo 670. It had squared corners, a nub antenna, and a slightly larger 320*320 screen. It looked like the hybrid of the i705's body, the T|W's antenna and a Treo 650. What a shame---the 700W is arguably uglier than the 650/600 are!
Where'd you get that bit about it being in black? I have to admit that the black/dark blue coloring DOES do a good bit to improve the aesthetics of the tired old T|E formfactor.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: Take this report with a boulder of salt
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
Is this really reliable?
RE: Is this really reliable?
-700W in January
-700P in March/April (similar specs to 700W but in a SLIGHTLY sleeker looking body w/ nub antena & a bit larger 320*320 screen)
-Low-end Treo (basically the Treo 600 specs but dressed in nifty styling with NVFS, a better camera, and stable FrankenGarnet) for autumn.
I figure Palm's going to have a relatively quiet year for their POS devices in '06. I expect Garnet 5.5 which is basically a final reworking/hacking of the TX's (mostly) stable 5.4.9. Look for 5.5 on both Palm-powered Treos in '06 and whatever final batch of rehashed Z/T/LD PDAs they release throughout the year.
Palm would also be wise to shore up their product release windows with three solid rounds per year. Midrange PDAs and WinMob Treos in spring, Mobile Managers & accessory launches in summer, low-end stuff & POS Treos for fall.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5
RE: Is this really reliable?
RE: Is this really reliable?
Adam! It's from an "Analyst". These guys give a new meaning to the term "Palm Reader"! About as reliable too.
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
Biased crap
RE: Biased crap
His title = Analyst. Therefore, this could have been said without reading the report.
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
what will it be Treo 700p
The more, the better.
By the way, a reset hole without removing backcover will be really appreciated.
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
I don't know about you but STABILITY and MEMORY are 2 features I kinda want to have if I'm shelling out $500 - $600 for a smartphone.
TVoR
------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------
The Palm eCONomy = Communism™
The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038
NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
I had a Psion Revo Plus (OK, actually the Diamond Mako branded US version, but identical except for the name.) for 3-4 months before a hardware failure. It never once did anything unexpected. Not once. I want that feature back more than anything in the PDA world.
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
The built in phone, messaging and media apps are rock-solid - an amazing achievement, considering Garnet's "issues".
Lack of memory? That's what SD cards are for! More memory on the device would just mean a more expensive handset, and the information wouldn't be as portable. I do agree, however, that Palm should include one in the box. Or make it an option to get one at a discount with the phone. Also, the 32MB included should be "real" memory, not a good ten meg taken up by ROM apps.
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
RE: what will it be Treo 700c
In place of the cell radio stick something cool in there like a tazer so I could use it for self defense as well.
---
David
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
Handspring Visor -> m505 -> Zire71 -> Zire72 -> Treo650
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
Palm has already sent me a unit with the tazer. Maybe I can post a photo soon. They are doing market research on either offering it or a laser pointer inside the Treo antenna.
**I can reset my Zire 72 when the DiddleBug alarm locks it up**
Tim,
An OS that could trap system crashes (aka Win NT, XP) and toss them out without a crash would be optimum. But, can you really blame the Treo for crashing when you've loaded it with freeware? I love the cheepy stuff too, but you get what you pay for most times. :-)
Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
VersaMail crashing Treo 650 like a drunken stuntman
The built in phone, messaging and media apps are rock-solid - an amazing achievement, considering Garnet's "issues".
I assume you've never used VersaMail if you believe the Treo 650 apps are all "rock-solid".
------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------
The Palm eCONomy = Communism™
The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038
NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
The TX's version of Blazer does seem pretty solid but VM on it leaves a lot to be desired. It's arguably weaker than the T5's older VM.
I haven't played with a Treo 650 enough to be confident in making any claims one way or another BUT Gekko claims that his 650 is extremely stable.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
I had in the past used the Treo 270 and 600 and none of them had this problem.
Hope than in the new model Treo 700 they could finally fix it.
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
You would assume incorrectly. However, I wouldn't consider myself a "heavy" user of Versamail - I've only ever occasionally used it to mail photos etc to friend's PC's. It's worked fine in that respect. I've heard of other people having problems with it, but don't Palm claim to have fixed it with the latest ROMs? (Yes, it should have worked 100% out of the box...)
From the Sagio report, Palm has a warranty return rate of 6% or something? The report seems to have been taken down now. Is that significantly higher than other handheld manufacturers? (curious)
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
Its Sagio's solution which is impressive however - not increase built quality and stability, but to reduce the length of the warranty. Thats why they are millionaires and we are plebes of course. ;)
Surur
Palm warranty reductions???
Palm already went that route (3 month Tungsten E warranty)...
------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------
The Palm eCONomy = Communism™
The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038
NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823
RE: what will it be Treo 700p
It seems almost unbelievable. Not that I doubt you. But what would be the cause of this? It can't just be the manufacturers, can it? After all, I was under the impression that big manufacturers like HTC and the like manufacture everyone's devices, not just Palm - so if it's a manufacturing issue, why don't other vendors see the same warranty rates?
Or are Palm just using cheap, shoddy parts?
Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)
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Take this report with a boulder of salt
I guess now we know where Michael Mace is working... Maybe Kirvin could find work writing press releases for these dirtbags.
TVoR
------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------
The Palm eCONomy = Communism™
The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038
NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823