New Report Looks at the Early iPhone Impact

Posted By: Kris Keilhack Tuesday, October 16, 2007 9:39:03 AM

The NPD Group has released the results of a new report on the initial purchasers of the iPhone. The study focuses on the casualties stemming from Apple’s industry-changing iPhone release this past June. According to the abstract, purchasers of the first wave of iPhones were "ten times more ikely than other new phone buyers to have previously owned a Treo and three times more likely to have owned a T-Mobile branded phone, such as the popular Sidekick model". T-Mobile has no 3G network in place at this time, relying exclusively on its 2.5G EDGE coverage. Alltel has a considerable CDMA network footprint and numerous roaming agreements in place, but their own EVDO Axxess coverage is less than Verizon or Sprint.

Apple iPhone vs Palm TreoThe report goes on to mention that Alltel and T-Mobile, two of the smaller national carriers, are reported to have suffered higher defection rates than Sprint and Verizon. The article goes on to say that Sprint and Verizon suffered fewer user defections due to widespread 3G EVDO networks and strong over-the-air app/game downloads and streaming music/TV/video offerings. For example, all Palm smartphone devices released on Sprint and Verizon in 2006 and 2007 have featured full EVDO capabilities, regardless of OS. One major strike against Apple’s first-generation iPhone has been its lack of true 3G coverage and its relatively slow EDGE radio.

Ross Rubin, NPD’s oft-quoted director of industry analysis, cites the BlackBerry’s solid corporate e-mail integration as its saving grace in preserving much of its user base in the face of the Apple’s glamorous, media-savvy offering. The article quotes Rubin as saying, “The iPhone’s lack of corporate email support appears to make it less appetizing to current Blackberry owners”.

Rubin goes on to say “The iPhone’s Internet and media capabilities have resonated with consumers -- especially those who previously owned Treos and Sidekicks, Its advanced operating system makes it competitive with smartphones for many tasks, while its sleek design and lack of expandability is reminiscent of fashion phones.”

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iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble

adamsmark @ 10/16/2007 1:46:23 PM # Q
The iPhone certainly doesn't do all that the Treo does, but where there is crossover, the iPhone is superior. If Palm thinks they can ignore the entertainment factor, they'll become somewhat obsolete. The real trouble will be when the iPhone adds some of those other functions.

Simply put, there is nothing inspiring about the new Palm smartphones. If you want small, three cheers for Palm, but, heck, the iPhone isn't very big... it just offers a big idea in a small package.

A few years back, I was tired of all the folk complaining about Palm, but that was a few years back.

"I believe in the atomic bomb."

Blogging at http://agabus.com">Agabus.com.

Palm V > Vx > Clie Peg T615C > T3 > Clie TH55 > T3 > Treo 650 > Treo 700p & T3!

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
LiveFaith @ 10/17/2007 12:26:15 AM # Q
Ditto. It's not that iPhone is superior in every way. It's the fact that on the FIRST try they hit an absolute grand slam and laid a huuuuuge foundation for the future. If this platform gets opened to devs, then it's Katie-bar-the-door.

Palm touts it's "world's smallest Palm OS smartfone" by shrinking the keyboard, battery, and display while still being a brick. iPhone is thinner than a Palm V, monstrous display that we've begged for around here forever, and battery life is still good pushing all that light and pixels. Amazing.

Pat Horne

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
DrewT3 @ 10/17/2007 11:48:22 AM # Q
Apple just announced the SDK for the iPhone, due in February. This is great news for people who want a modern Phone/PDA device and are tired of waiting for Palm to progress past 2003.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
palmato @ 10/17/2007 12:32:46 PM # Q
That announcement is probably the last nail in Palm's coffin. At least for the palmOs side of the business.
By the time the PalmOsII gets out the door, which is end of 2008, the gap will be so wide that the number of developers interested in going forward will be too small to make a difference.
On the other hand Apple, which unlike palm has an excellent reputation for developer's products, will offer a platform enabled on a number of devices most of them pushed by excellent marketing, ipod halo and a bit of hype (which never hurts).
What do you think the average developer will do?


--------------------------
Hey Admin: Why do we have to keep two profiles?

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 1:10:49 PM # Q
Nail one:

http://tinyurl.com/yrzjfy

Nail two:

iPhone/iPod Touch SDK

Nail three:

Asus Eee PC

Nail four:

http://www.zonbu.com/
-- if you go to their YouTube demo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT1CJd7jFo0

-- they make a point of stating YouTube will work.

So let's see. No one is buying two-year-old Palm PDAs. Treo is fat-assed and buggy. The Centro is still too early to tell. The Foleo is dead dead dead. And, oh yeah, don't hold your breath waiting for the Second Coming of PalmOS in 2008. (Or is that 2009?)

Four nails in the body of Palm. It's all pinned down now. Just one left: the head shot.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 1:46:02 PM # Q
Not the head shot, but close:

http://www2.sprint.com/mr/news_dtl.do?id=18320

Sprint brings the HTC Touch.

Meanwhile, Apple Legal prepares papers...

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
hkklife @ 10/17/2007 2:39:44 PM # Q
Nokia 810's not lookin' too terribly bad either. Sure, more RAM would be nice, and I REALLY don't like the new d-pad location. But a faster CPU, brighter LCD, keyboard and built-in GPS make it look quite attractive at this stage of the game. But going from two SD slots to a single miniSD slot is a huge setback. WHAT do manufacturers (other than digicams) have against SDHC? It's the perfect format for any number of reasons and yet nearly every CE manufacturer is falling over themselves to go to smaller, more fragile, lesser capacit, pricier, and less compatible mini/micro formats!


Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
Poopie @ 10/17/2007 3:52:59 PM # Q

Just one left: the head shot.

...and that would be Google releasing a Linux-based mobile OS, right?
http://www.engadget.com/2007/08/28/google-is-working-on-a-mobile-os-and-its-due-out-shortly/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olm7xC-gBMY
Boom!

Unless... gphone OS end up being Palm Linux? That with iPhone-competitive hardware might just tempt me to switch back to Palm.

USR Palm Pilot 1000 --> Palm Pilot Professional --> TRG SuperPilot --> Palm IIIc --> Palm V --> Palm M505 --> Palm M515 --> Tungsten T|2 --> Treo 600 --> LifeDrive --> iPhone

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 4:04:11 PM # Q
>>>Nokia 810's not lookin' too terribly bad either.

Are you totally freaking insane? People think I'm this big Nokia hater. Only because they MADE me so. Seeing the news of this, I popped over to iTT and the first thing I see are issues with the 2007OS on the current N800. Damned thing is *still* buggy sh*t!

Don't be fooled! This is crap too. Save your money. (For the 2008 Apple minitablet! But only if you want something that, you know, *works properly*!)

As for the poster below that one -- now there's an idea you've spawned: Google buys Palm! (God help Google!)

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 4:15:24 PM # Q
Oh, if you *must* buy *something* -- the Asus Eee is a better buy. More CPU power, better features, and it will run YouTube *for real* -- not the pathetic toy-ish version the Nokia dribbles along with. Best Buy and newegg RSN.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 4:18:43 PM # Q
Update: Asus Eee live piccies.

http://chinese.engadget.com/gallery/eee-pc-hands-on/441993/

Have a vomit bag ready, though. In one pic they trot out Hitler Youth to demo.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
AdamaDBrown @ 10/18/2007 3:48:43 AM # Q
And they say that the Eee PC isn't intended to run Win XP. Snort. I gotta admit, those things look cool.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/18/2007 10:51:50 AM # Q
Well, it's not. But it can. But not without some problems. YMMV.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
hkklife @ 10/18/2007 11:46:48 AM # Q
Just because the Eee PC isn't INTENDED to Run XP doesn't mean it CANNOT run XP, right?

I mean, I've run XP smoothly on far less capable hardware (PIIIs with 512mb RAM)....a Celeron M CPU and Intel 910 integrated video isn't going to be playing Crysis of course but my laptop from a few years ago had a Pentium M with an Intel Extreme 2 integrated graphics (845-based, so one generation older than the 910).

A Celeron M 900mhz would give benchmark numbers along the lines of an early 1.4-1.6ghz P4, IIRC. And a lot of new 945-based systems are still shipping with 915 graphics chipsets (very mildly upgraded from the 910) and they are quite servicable even under Vista. So I think a lot of folks are underestimating the inherent CPU/chipset/video capabilities of the Eee!

My only worry on the Asus is that XP hits normal PC's hard drives so often that loaded on a flash-only machine like the Eee PC XP's frenzied disc accessing (with <1gb RAM) would eventually exhaust all of the times the SSD flash could be written to. Anyone have any insight on this?

But I thought the Eee was the superior machine to the Fooleo several months ago and I still think that, even with the EEE's delayed launch, questionable build quality, and underwhelming specs in the cheapie models. Knowing Asus, probably by the 2nd and definitely by the 3rd generation they'll have quite a machine on their hands. Look how far Asus has come as far as their self-branded notebook PCs! I'll be all over one of these things when the larger screen variants are released next year.

Now, as far as marketing goes, companies like Asus do not and likely never will get it. Have you ever seen as much mis-information, broken promises and spec changes as e've seen surrounding the Eee? I maintain that the Eee would have been something Asus would have been better off partnering with someone like Gateway or Dell to release...

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
SeldomVisitor @ 10/18/2007 12:08:13 PM # Q
The video shows it running XP, I believe:

-- http://chinese.engadget.com/2007/10/16/eee-pc-hands-on/

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
hkklife @ 10/18/2007 12:51:31 PM # Q
Ah, it has been officially announced now w/ XP! To be avaialble by year's end. This coincides nicely with the M$ saying that XP will continue to be sold into '08.

PC world from the 16th:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,138480-c,notebooks/article.html

I wonder if the XP version will have more robust SSDs (higher # of writes) than the Linux versions?

I'm betting that once June '08 passes, M$ is going to respin XP + SP3 into an "entry level/ultra cheap laptop/emerging market PC" OS for OEM licensing only and keep it going for another 2 years...



Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
AdamaDBrown @ 10/18/2007 3:34:49 PM # Q
You'd have to know exactly how many rewrites the flash is rated for, and how often XP touches the disk in that sort of configuration. You could always turn off the page file, though: I've heard XP can be run quite well on 1 GB of RAM with no page file.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
Tuckermaclain @ 10/19/2007 11:29:46 AM # Q
This coffin has been nailed more than (insert fav female celeb in rehab) and it still isn't closed. Go Palm!

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/19/2007 2:23:19 PM # Q
Drool, peasants:

http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jeremy-3c/article?mid=10651&prev=10655&next=10626

http://www.mobile01.com/topicdetail.php?f=233&t=422914&last=3851470

http://www.mobile01.com/topicdetail.php?f=233&t=422828

Suddenly $400 for a ** PDA ** seems just absolutely STUPID! (Palm never wanted to cellar prices to make PDAs a "commodity" -- now, they'd better!)

Linkswipes from Eee User:
http://www.eeeuser.com/

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
hkklife @ 10/19/2007 2:47:41 PM # Q
Has it been confirmed that the Eee can handle SDHC cards?

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/19/2007 9:21:33 PM # Q
Re that Eee PC, yep, looks cool for the price. It really is "just" $400 (NT$12900). I did notice that that price tag was double what the early reports were telling us ASUS was going to sell it for. I'd still like to see what the 8 or even 16gb unit with a 10 inch screen is going to cost. I'm guessing they'll add another $200 to that price tag. The small keyboard remains another question.

In any case, looks like I can go and play with one now (if I'm really interested).


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/19/2007 9:32:02 PM # Q
I thought I might add to the obvious since I've commented about it before. With Apple's SDK intentions officially announced, the iPhone and the iTouch just got a whole lot more interesting to me. Palm needs to get all their Linux OS coders working double time to do everything they can to get the new OS out the door ASAP. But it is certainly hard to imagine how they are going to get this turned around. There have been so many things done so wrong for so long. Well at least Apple's announcement gives me hope that there could be another good option.


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/20/2007 12:50:36 PM # Q
>>>I did notice that that price tag was double what the early reports were telling us ASUS was going to sell it for.

There are lower-cost ones, plus there is a $200 one but that's for ginormous bulk orders. FYI, they've already had a ONE MILLION order from a developing country. Don't know which model or which country.

$400 for a *real* computer vs close to that for a PDA? Hey, Palm! PDAs = $50-$100 max now. Welcome to reality, you self-deluded eejits.

And oh yeah: Colligan, resign!

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/20/2007 9:28:57 PM # Q
FYI, they've already had a ONE MILLION order from a developing country. Don't know which model or which country.

Scene: board room of a not so reputable company somewhere in China
"So we buy this thing bulk from ASUS for $200, slap a pirated copy of Windows XP on it with all the appropriate labels, and resell it for $500 as the cheapest Windows ultra-light laptop computer. We'll make millions!" :)


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/21/2007 7:00:06 AM # Q



Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/21/2007 7:01:33 AM # Q
Blast it all.


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/21/2007 1:27:08 PM # Q
Nah, I doubt that China scenario. The $200 model has very limited storage. XP has been running on the $400 one.

RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
twrock @ 10/22/2007 7:17:09 AM # Q
So now MS wants in on the Eee scene themselves: http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2007/10/22/asus_to_offer_vista_eee_pc/
Who knows, maybe they can find a way to shoehorn Vista into it ... and ruin a perfectly good Linux box.


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: iPhone is no Treo -- Perhaps that's Palm's trouble
mikecane @ 10/22/2007 10:15:17 AM # Q
Oh my god. I'd rather have OS X on it!!

http://mikecane.wordpress.com/2007/09/13/asus-eee-os-x/

Vista is the worst thing since Bob.

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Einstein's New Relativity

mikecane @ 10/16/2007 3:09:32 PM # Q
>>>its relatively slow EDGE radio.

You don't know just how relative!

At DigitalLife, I called up the PC Mag homepage via EDGE on their iPhone. I was shocked at how speedy it was.

It turns out on the east coast (maybe just NYC?) EDGE is much faster than it is elsewhere. People who have visited NYC with their iPhones all remark on the difference.

RE: Einstein's New Relativity
hkklife @ 10/16/2007 3:53:51 PM # Q
Remember the news item I did a few months back on how AT&T was tweaking the he11 out of and optimizing their EDGE network for the impending iPhone launch? I was stunned when I used a friend's 680 back around the first of the year and then again a few weeks ago. It still wasn't as snappy as my 700p but I could that things were a bit snappier (pre iPhone speeds compared to post-iPhone speeds). Again, the halo effect of Apple's releases continue to be felt throughout the industry...

And I've certainly used iPhones before and I'd say that they are no worse than the 680, at least for mobile-optimized web page browsing. Though I have to admit that all of my usage has been in major markets on the East Coast.


Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: Einstein's New Relativity
freakout @ 10/17/2007 3:53:22 AM # Q
^^ At least you folks actually get EDGE - over this side of the globe, it's pretty much non-existent. Our telcos jumped straight from GPRS to UMTS. Telstra has limited EDGE coverage in the major cities and that's about it. Stinks if you're a Palm OS user, which is probably why Palm is focusing more on their WinMob showponies elsewhere.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know why UMTS mandates simultaneous voice & data? Can't they just build a device with the higher-speed radio and just disable data while on a call?

RE: Einstein's New Relativity
nybble @ 10/17/2007 7:17:52 AM # Q
I can't speak to anywhere else, but here in NYC EDGE is definitely useable. I browse the web and what not constantly on the iPhone and it's great. Not super speedy, for sure, but easily good enough.

<http://comments.deasil.com/> that is my tech blog. There are many like it, but that one is mine.
RE: Einstein's New Relativity
AdamaDBrown @ 10/18/2007 4:13:47 AM # Q
Freakout, it was defined as part of the spec because people didn't want their calls to go to voicemail if they were checking email, and it can't be worked around because then you'd be breaking standards compliance, and you wouldn't get certified.

Reply to this comment

Jobs promises iPhone SDK by Feb 2008

Poopie @ 10/17/2007 3:37:02 PM # Q
http://www.apple.com/hotnews/


Let me just say it: We want native third party applications on the iPhone, and we plan to have an SDK in developers’ hands in February. We are excited about creating a vibrant third party developer community around the iPhone and enabling hundreds of new applications for our users. With our revolutionary multi-touch interface, powerful hardware and advanced software architecture, we believe we have created the best mobile platform ever for developers.

It will take until February to release an SDK because we’re trying to do two diametrically opposed things at once—provide an advanced and open platform to developers while at the same time protect iPhone users from viruses, malware, privacy attacks, etc



USR Palm Pilot 1000 --> Palm Pilot Professional --> TRG SuperPilot --> Palm IIIc --> Palm V --> Palm M505 --> Palm M515 --> Tungsten T|2 --> Treo 600 --> LifeDrive --> iPhone

RE: Jobs promises iPhone SDK by Feb 2008
mikecane @ 10/17/2007 4:04:58 PM # Q
Thank you for posting without reading what came before.

You can return to bed now. Your day is over.

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