Smartphone Shipments to More Than Double in 2K6

Smartphones' premium prices and "supersized" form factors have historically combined with a limited demand for advanced data services to restrict them to "niche market" status. But 2006 will bring a growth spurt in the smartphone market that will see worldwide shipments more than double. The 123 million units that ABI Research forecasts will be shipped this year will give smartphones nearly a 15% share of the mobile phone market, according to its latest study.

What will drive the expansion of smartphones beyond the current core market of early adopters?

According to Philip Solis, the firm's Senior Analyst, Mobile Wireless Research, five factors lie behind the devices' growing momentum. "Increasing demand for robust data communications applications — especially mobile email and instant messaging — will play a role, particularly as 3G speeds improve the appeal of mobile data services. With increasing sales volumes, prices are falling fast, while the choice of models on offer is growing rapidly (39% more models were available in 2005 than in 2004). Even as their functionality expands, smartphones are shrinking in size, offering lower power consumption and longer battery life. Finally, Wi-Fi is reaching into the smartphone, and we expect to see fully a quarter of all models offering embedded Wi-Fi by 2010."

But behind attractive interfaces and powerful applications lie operating systems, and the shifting tides of OS adoption will be at least as important as any other factor in determining the shape of the future market. With the Palm OS moribund, Linux is finding increasing favor, with industry heavyweights such as Motorola, Samsung, NEC and Panasonic among its backers. "The Windows Mobile OS is gaining ground too," notes Solis, "while Symbian, whose OS is currently the hands-down market share winner, is attempting to stave off competitors by halving its license fees for volume deals."

The "Smartphones: The Next Phase of Worldwide Adoption" study explores the smartphone's role of combining communications and computing as an extension of the PC, the Internet, and the corporate intranet; it analyzes how major mobile operators around the world are increasing the number of smartphones they offer in order to attract and retain customers looking for high-end services. It forms part of the firm's subscription "Mobile Devices Research Service", which includes a number of research reports, regular market updates, forecast and industry databases, ABI Insights and analyst inquiry assistance.

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Despite Treo...

Surur @ 3/2/2006 11:37:35 AM # Q

... the world seems to be down on POS. This cant play very well in the IT department when they decide which device to order to supplement Blackberries. Luckily WM came to the rescue of Palm...

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

RE: Despite Treo...
freakout @ 3/3/2006 7:02:02 PM # Q
Palm came to the rescue of WM, you mean. :P

This sig is a placeholder till I come up with something good
RE: Despite Treo...
Surur @ 3/3/2006 7:32:02 PM # Q

I understand things are upside down in Australia...

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

RE: Despite Treo...
Simony @ 3/4/2006 12:23:14 AM # Q
> ... the world seems to be down on POS.

This guy is incredible. With every story, no matter how innocuous, he manages to come up with a post which is loaded with negative connotations for Palm.

This is coming from someone who has described himself as a 'WM Advocate', who regularly posts links to announcements of new WinCE devices and who generally bends over backwards to repeat all the tired old spin about how 'Palm is doomed'.

It's obvious that he spends a huge amount of time every day trawling various mobile computing websites looking for anything negative about Palm.

It's equally obvious that he has never actually used any Palm OS device ... he merely takes things he has read elsewhere and repeats them here ... and yet he tries to pose as some sort of expert and he insists that he is always right.

One example - I remember that a prominent PPC website ran a short article on a new VOIP product about 6 months ago. Someone at that other website posted a comment about how this was yet another reason why WinCE was superior to Palm OS, since there was no equivalent product available for Palm devices. Within 24 hours, our little friend (Surur) was over here at PIC repeating the same thing, without (of course) ever bothering to check his facts - it was obvious he was not aware about the working being done to release a similar product for Palm devices. And since Surur always claims to be right, he would never admit the existence of:

http://www.mobivoip.net/

Surur's performances here are like a nun providing advice on family planning practices - he doesn't know what he is talking about, but he is always ready to parrot what he has heard elsewhere.

The question remains: What motivates this behaviour?

RE: Despite Treo...
Surur @ 3/4/2006 3:43:20 AM # Q

Simony, mobivoip is a rather recent development, and not even out of beta yet. Maybe you want to provide some dates to provide I am misleading people.

A year ago I said there was no legal native PDF viewer for Palm users, now there is. Was I misleading people then too?

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

RE: Despite Treo...
Simony @ 3/4/2006 8:55:01 PM # Q
I can't give you dates because I have not kept records of your marketing activities here at PIC. However, I have a vague recollection that you were pushing the 'No Palm VoIP' line around Christmas last year.

RE: Despite Treo...
Simony @ 3/4/2006 8:57:17 PM # Q
Oh, I forgot - do you care to answer the question as to why you are conducting one-man WM marketing campaign here at PIC?

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Linux and Symbian overrated.

AdamaDBrown @ 3/2/2006 3:39:34 PM # Q
The title says it all. While there are some genuine Linux and Symbian devices that deserve the title "smartphone," most are half-assed featurephones with no serious level of application support or data usage.

Walk up to the user of a Nokia Series 60 phone, and ask them what OS they're running. The most likely response will be a blank stare. People don't buy most of those Linux and Symbian devices because they think they're for data, they buy them because they're considered to be "cool phones."

As of now, the only smartphone platforms really worth mentioning are Palm, Windows, Blackberry, and UIQ. To extend the courtesy to all Symbian devices, or all Linux devices, is to strain credulity.

Of course, to offer a reasonable definition of "smartphone" would drastically slash their sales numbers, which would make it more difficult to produce an attention-grabbing and misleading headline for your research company's report.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
PenguinPowered @ 3/2/2006 9:22:57 PM # Q
I'll bite: what is a reasonable definition of smartphone?

I've never had a clear distinction between dumb, feature, and smart in my mind, given how much my low end nokia does compared to the treo, which I assume represent the two extremes.

May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
stonemirror @ 3/2/2006 11:25:43 PM # Q
I'm not personally sure there is one, particularly as capabilities increase. By some "reasonable" definitions, everybody in Tokyo's walking around with a "smart phone"...

Every industry analyst defining the term differently certainly doesn't help...

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
AdamaDBrown @ 3/3/2006 12:29:54 AM # Q
I would say that a reasonable definition of a smartphone is a device designed in the form-factor of a phone; incorporating the basic features of a mobile computer; running an established open operating system that includes the option of third party software; and is intended for use with data, internet, and documents as much as for voice communication. This would be where I would stick the Treos, the better Nokias, new-style Blackberries, and the cut-down WM Smartphones.

As a corollary, I'd also define a cellular-wireless handheld as being a device not neccessarily designed like a phone, that includes voice communication and connection to a cellular network, but is primarily intended for use with data. This would cover devices like the old-style Blackberries, most of the current Pocket PC phones, and other

It's really the role of data use that I think is the litmus test. You can't seriously look at a Nokia 6600 and tell me that that's the same as a Treo. The E61, however (Nokia's Treo clone for the European market), is in the same class, because it's designed with an eye to computing use.

It is an extremely slippery slope, it's true, and you can't create a simple black and white definition. But that low-end Nokia you refer to may indeed be considered a "smartphone" by some definitions if it runs on the Series 60 interface. What we have is basically a sliding scale from more phone-like to less phone like, and people are getting carried away, saying that the second a handheld gets a WAN radio or a phone gains a couple of applications, it makes them smartphones. It doesn't. It makes them a handheld with long-range wireless internet, and a dumb phone with a couple of random applications. Analysis firms want to show off these huge new markets so that companies will pay to know how to tap in, never realizing that it's actually several smaller markets. Wireless carriers and manufacturers each want to look like they own the world. And pundits just want to predict the death of something to seem edge and forward looking.

Anyway, that's my definition of a smartphone. Man, I'm ranting quite a lot today. This, HP, Origami, the Bluetooth SIG...

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
PenguinPowered @ 3/3/2006 12:31:38 PM # Q
That's consistent with the picture I had in my mind.

The space is pretty confused right now with sort-of-feature phones and kinda-smart phones and so forth, but I expect that it will become more clear as it becomes less crowded as the failed experiments drop by the way side.

May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ackmondual @ 3/3/2006 6:27:21 PM # Q
So the OS is important b/c it lets the phone expand beyond its factory settings?

Reminds me, actually met ppl who actually thought a smartphone is a phone smart enough to tell them when their checking account will hit overdraft or how to avoid traffic on some highway. You don't need no OS for that. Hell, I bet my ol-ass Siemens a56 phone could've done that

"Do you know the difference between an error and a mistake? Anyone can make an error, but that error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it."
-Grand Admiral Thrawn

the secret to enjoying your job is to have a hobby that's even worse

My PDAs: Visor --> Visor Neo (blue) --> Zire 71 --> Tungsten T3 (with 4 of 6 screws still remaining) ~?~> zodiac 2?

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/4/2006 2:52:03 PM # Q
people who actually thought a smartphone is a phone smart enough to tell them when their checking account will hit overdraft or how to avoid traffic on some highway.

It's technically possible today, it's just a matter of companies integrating the right applications, infrastructure and systems.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
AdamaDBrown @ 3/4/2006 5:30:11 PM # Q
it's just a matter of companies integrating the right applications, infrastructure and systems.

Of course, that takes actual work, and forethought, and investment. Much better to keep recycling the same old BS, and selling overpriced ringtones to teenagers. :P

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/5/2006 1:40:25 PM # Q
Much better to keep recycling the same old BS, and selling overpriced ringtones to teenagers.

To paraphrase the old saying: it's easy money if you can get it!
:-)

"It is commonly said, and more particularly by Lord Shaftesbury, that ridicule is the best test of truth".
Lord Chesterfield

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
stonemirror @ 3/5/2006 3:23:52 PM # Q
It's technically possible today, it's just a matter of companies integrating the right applications, infrastructure and systems.

There's a degree of truth in this, just as there's a degree of truth in saying that playing the flute is just a matter of blowing across one end while moving your fingers around on the other.

Cross-functional issues within an organization can be challenging. Cross-functional issues across different organizations can be really challenging.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/5/2006 10:41:04 PM # Q
stonemirror said
Cross-functional issues across different organizations can be really challenging

Challenging but not impossible. If they were impossible then we wouldn't have the airline reservation system, electronic money transfer (including VISA, Mastercard and Amex), cellular telephones or for that matter the internet.

As said earlier, it's merely a matter of motivation to implement those ideas, it's not even that challenging to implement. It's stuff that can be done with today's systems, today's smartphones and today's software.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
PenguinPowered @ 3/6/2006 2:08:23 AM # Q
Except the how-to-avoid traffic bit. there's a lot of infrastructure missing for that one.



May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/6/2006 7:55:44 AM # Q
Except the how-to-avoid traffic bit. there's a lot of infrastructure missing for that one.

That may be true in the USA but it's not the case in the UK, Germany and some other European countries.

TomTom have their traffic subscription service up and running now for their navigation devices:

http://tinyurl.com/gaagk

It illustrates my point perfectly, these systems are possible and running today, it's a matter of companies having the finance and motivation to implement them.

"It is commonly said, and more particularly by Lord Shaftesbury, that ridicule is the best test of truth".
Lord Chesterfield

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
SeldomVisitor @ 3/6/2006 11:55:05 AM # Q
Wow, cool!

How does Tom-tom know about the traffic accident that occured 10 minutes ago that will cause traffic to stop dead for an hour on the interroute 3?

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/6/2006 1:59:21 PM # Q
How does Tom-tom know about the traffic accident that occured 10 minutes ago that will cause traffic to stop dead for an hour on the interroute 3?

Here's one way in the UK: www.trafficengland.com
Naturally there are counterparts for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
I can't speak for the rest of Europe.

There are so many roadside cameras, sensors etc in the UK that such a system is possible. Naturally the system can't know of an accident without someone entering the info first!

Having said that, there are sensors in the road at strategic locations which can monitor the speed of traffic flow; I presume they can automatically raise an alert if there was a dramatic fall in speed.

Also don't forget that London has the congestion charge zone where cameras look at your vehicle's number plate and send the bill to your address for entering the zone accordingly.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
PenguinPowered @ 3/6/2006 2:56:15 PM # Q
I tried that url. Here's what I got:

The Traffic-England service is temporarily unavailable.
We are sorry for any inconvenience and we hope to resume service as soon as possible.

I think you might be a tiny bit optimistic about how much infrastructure is actually in place in the EU.

May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
ChiA @ 3/6/2006 5:58:28 PM # Q
Marty said
I think you might be a tiny bit optimistic about how much infrastructure is actually in place in the EU.

There's more than for the 40 million US residents without basic medical cover so don't be so smug.

I don't know how it is for the rest of the EU; here's how it is in the UK.
Just accept that it's an unfortunate coincidence that the site is down; it was there when I looked at it earlier. Try these other sites as well:
www.trafficscotland.org
http://www.trafficmap.co.uk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
AdamaDBrown @ 3/6/2006 6:18:25 PM # Q
That may be true in the USA but it's not the case in the UK, Germany and some other European countries.

We've got that too. There's a service called XM NavTraffic, from XM satellite radio, that broadcasts traffic information directly to compatible GPS nav systems. The GPS then notes this when calculating directions and routing. I think there might be a couple of others as well.

As said earlier, it's merely a matter of motivation to implement those ideas, it's not even that challenging to implement. It's stuff that can be done with today's systems, today's smartphones and today's software.

True. What you'd really require is standards for how to handle information exchange. The biggest roadblock isn't technical, it's beaurocratic: the companies which can do something don't see a reason why they should exert themselves to provide a service which may not neccessarily bring them immediate profit.

RE: Linux and Symbian overrated.
PenguinPowered @ 3/6/2006 6:49:21 PM # Q
There's more than for the 40 million US residents without basic medical cover so don't be so smug.

Well, that sure is irrelevant to the point.

Yes, there is "infrastructure" to support what you are suggesting. But in Europe, as in the US, that infrastructure is fairly fragile -- which is my point.

We've got Sigalert here in the San Francisco Bay area. It's on a par with the British system. Manhattan has congested fee zones, although they use different technology than London.

None of this works very well, either in the US or in Europe, for routing people around accidents, for a lot of complex reasons that have to do with traffic control and congestion.

It's worse in the US than it is in Europe, but it's not very good anywhere -- except possibly Tokyo.

It's easier to see the problem in the US, so I'll describe it based on US infrastructure: In areas where traffic density is low enough that alternative routes can handle the route-around, there's not enough money to put in the infrastructure -- and not enough traffic to justify spending the money.

On the other hand, where traffic density is high enough to justify spending the money, there's usually no route-around that can handle the traffic in the event of an accident, so there's not much advantage in knowing about it.

Besides, the low tech techniques, in the form of the drive time traffic report on the radio, work just as well, if not better than the far more expensive high tech ones.


May You Live in Interesting Times

Traffic Info on Smartphones
ChiA @ 3/6/2006 7:41:36 PM # Q
Marty said
Well, that sure is irrelevant to the point.
You're right Marty, sorry I got a bit tetchy there!
low tech techniques in the form of the drive time traffic report on the radio, work just as well, if not better than the far more expensive high tech ones.

And that's probably the reason why not much attention has been given to traffic on the smartphones. It's so much better to listen to a decent radio station than to the soulless voice of a SatNav!
:-P
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Traffic Info on Smartphones

ChiA @ 3/6/2006 6:14:37 PM # Q
I wonder if anyone can get any of these traffic sites to work on their smartphone browsers? It'll be nice to compare between them all, Treo included.

"It is commonly said, and more particularly by Lord Shaftesbury, that ridicule is the best test of truth".
Lord Chesterfield
RE: Traffic Info on Smartphones
Admin @ 3/6/2006 6:25:10 PM # Q
Palm has their own Traffic app that runs on the treo right now:

http://www.palminfocenter.com/news/7989/palm-introduces-new-treo-traffic-application/

it doesn't offer GPS but it will tell you about traffic on a map in real-time. Too bad its subscription based or more people might be inclined to use it.


-Ryan

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Who Coined the word smartphone?

ChiA @ 3/6/2006 7:50:55 PM # Q
Maybe the best way to find a definitive definition of a smartphone is to ask whoever it was who came up with the word in the first place. Any ideas?

"It is commonly said, and more particularly by Lord Shaftesbury, that ridicule is the best test of truth".
Lord Chesterfield
RE: Who Coined the word smartphone?
hkklife @ 3/6/2006 8:52:20 PM # Q
The first time *I* ever saw the term in print or heard it used was when Nokia launched the classic 9000 Communicator. That was, what, late 1996 or so (Adama!)? But, "communicator" was a more fitting moniker than "smartphone" for that beast.

I also recall Qualcomm's first POS product, the pDQ, being called a Smartphone because you could Hotsync & install apps to it. This was long before Java/Brew etc. on conventional cellular handsets and way before the first Treos.

BTW, the pdQ/7135 formfactor still has some appeal to it. Imagine a slimmed-down Treo with a 320*480 screen partially hidden by a flip cover.

It's pathetic that pdQ downloaded at 14.4k back in 1999 and 7 years later we cannot legally/easily/cheaply exceed that on a Palm using BT tethering. And to exceed that on a Treo entails substantial data surcharges on top of the voice plan.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX

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