Thoughts on Palm and Pocket PC Competition
A thought-provoking blog entry titled how the Pocket PC beat Palm was recently posted on Sukumar's blog (I didn't realize the fight was over). He compares the Palm vs. Microsoft war of past years to the current battle Apple and its iPod is waging against a new slew of competitors. The article focuses on handheld device competition and touches on the differences between consumer and enterprise markets and how acceptance amongst early adopters is a critical key to a product's success.
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RE: The blunt truth
(1) PDA marketshare is irrelevant... the battle has already shifted to smartphone, and Palm is winning, if not absolutely dominant.
(2) Microsoft didn't win Fedex and UPS by leveraging anything other than their pocketbook: as with the Wince Treo, MS *paid* for Fedex and UPS to use their platform. The deals wereheavily subsidized and didn't make a buck.
(3) The Wince Treo was paid for by MS. With it, Palm brilliantly outflanked the Q, forcing Motorola to sell it below cost. Yes, the Q will get some share, but it is cludgy and feature-weak compared to the Treo... even the 650.
The really pitiful thing is that a FUD-spewing shill gets so much airtime. :)
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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin: STOP YOUR LIES.
(1) PDA marketshare is irrelevant... the battle has already shifted to smartphone, and Palm is winning, if not absolutely dominant.
Really? Care to post some actual real NUMBERS (along with links to independent sources) to back up your claim? Ever heard of Symbian? Dirty. Lying. Biotch.
(2) Microsoft didn't win Fedex and UPS by leveraging anything other than their pocketbook: as with the Wince Treo, MS *paid* for Fedex and UPS to use their platform. The deals wereheavily subsidized and didn't make a buck.
Microsoft "didn't make a buck"? References, please. Dirty. Lying. Biotch.
(3) The Wince Treo was paid for by MS. With it, Palm brilliantly outflanked the Q, forcing Motorola to sell it below cost. Yes, the Q will get some share, but it is cludgy and feature-weak compared to the Treo... even the 650.
So, "the Wince Treo was paid for by MS"? References, please. Dirty. Lying. Biotch.
The really pitiful thing is that a FUD-spewing shill gets so much airtime. :)
The only FUD here is from the absolute nonsense you keep posting.
TVoR
RE: The blunt truth
RE: The blunt truth
Palm simply haven't come up with a good PC-side music sync solution. Windows Media Player syncing really sucks; I prefer to copy songs directly to the SD card. They also need a 3.5mm headphone jack as standard.
Some more marketing for this particular feature wouldn't go astray either.
This sig is a placeholder till I come up with something good
RE: The blunt truth
Swiss-army knives haven't replaced straight-blade knife-only knives. Is a Swiss-army knife useful for some? Certainly, and it has its market. But it's not a better knife than a straight-blade, and it's not a better screwdriver than a screwdriver. It is simply a mediocre of each, sold to those who's needs are limited.
Likewise, a smartphone is not a better cellphone than a cellphone. Certainly a Treo isn't a better cell than my cell. A Treo is huge in comparison, with too many buttons that are too small. And it's too much of a liability... if I utilize all its features, I entrust too much of my life into a device which I am prone to loaning out to people if they need to. I don't mind letting someone borrow my cell for a bit, but there's no way I'd let them borrow my PDA. I take my cell everywhere, but my PDA is too critical for me to risk it in a hike through the woods.
Likewise, a smartphone is not a better PDA than a standalone PDA. The screen is smaller. It's slower. The keyboard takes up valuable real-estate (especially for those of us who prefer non-keyboard PDAs since that's been the norm for most of their existence).
Just because convergence is technically possible, doesn't mean that it's a good idea and that everyone's needs can be met by the converged device. Otherwise no one would be driving passenger cars or 18-wheelers and everyone would be driving pickup trucks. Some of us want or need more than a half-baked PDA and a half-baked cell phone.
If the Treo/smartphone is right for you, great. Just don't assume that because you're happy with it that you represent everyone else with a cell phone or PDA.
http://vtbsd.net/winhelp/
Competition heats up for BlackBerry
Competition heats up for BlackBerry
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060609/tc_usatoday/competitionheatsupforblackberry
Yeah, this guy should work for Apple!
Lemme see if I understand this.
In order for Apple to be successful with the iPod, they need to get it adopted by enterprise customers.
Because lots of enterprise customers need MP3 players for their job.
Genius.
RE: Yeah, this guy should work for Apple!
The best comparison one could make is to compare this to Windows' dominance of the OS market. I remember reading a post where someone compared the two (it may have been Foo or EdH, but I can't remember), noting how Microsoft went after the enterprise with Windows and how it trickled down to consumers afterwards. At this point, Windows Mobile 2003 wasn't even out yet; I congratulate that poster's foresight.
Yeah - but does MS even care?
Yes - MS overtook Palm OS a while back in terms of market share. And yes the enterprise was key - but it didn't take a 'brilliant strategy' to do this - it took a)years and years of emptying Microsofts ultra-deep pockets at a loss, and b)being the company that provides a huge chunk of the infrastructure that IS the enterprise.
A nice nugget here:
>>MS has also done another important thing which will help it in the year 2002, as we will see - it built the OS as a general purpose one capable of running on multiple types of processors including the more powerful Intel ARM-based XScale processors.
Pocket PC started out running on 3 classes of processor: SH3, MIPS, and ARM. With Pocket PC 2002, MS promptly dropped SH3 and MIPS like lead balloons, realizing that having developers and publishers support three different builds of the same app was insane.
What is interesting to me is that with MS 'winning' the PDA war(having higher market share)it is now such a bit of a hollow victory because the PDA market isn't as relevant as many thought it would be way back when MS got in this game. Pocket PC must be a pretty big loss when you factor in the early years (though it was recently making a profit last I heard).
I think Palm OS may actually win the war in the end - but mostly because i expect MS to simply exit this very small and underwhelming market. The BIG GUN in the Pocket PC market - the ipaq (cited as the device that got Pocket PC going in the above article) - is on its way out accordimg to statement from HP.
The sad thing is that if Palm / PalmSource had gotten their sh!t together with a new OS version, i think they'd be poised to win by default. Its just not worth it for MS, HP and Dell. But as a smaller company, Palm is happy to pick up the 'meagre' revenues from this space.
Even without a new OS, Palm may yet outlast Pocket PC - with strategy having nothing to do with it.
RE: Yeah - but does MS even care?
Not really. When you break it down, it's a few tens of millions of dollars--arguable worth it simply as a PR expense to a $220 billion dollar company.
I think Palm OS may actually win the war in the end - but mostly because i expect MS to simply exit this very small and underwhelming market.
People have been saying that for years. And it's not a small and underwhelming market. The mobile device market is worth billions as it is, and it's only going to bigger.
The BIG GUN in the Pocket PC market - the ipaq (cited as the device that got Pocket PC going in the above article) - is on its way out accordimg to statement from HP.
No, it's not. Wherever you heard that, it's wrong. An HP exec talked up how they thought that "pen based computing" was dead and how they were becoming a smartphone company. Sour grapes if you ask me, based on the fact that after they trashed their product line they started getting pasted in the marketplace. Even so, they weren't talking about giving up on their low-end and mid-range handhelds.
RE: Yeah - but does MS even care?
Really I don't have this general "hatred" of Microsoft but I will continue to use non MS options even if they may be missing some features simply so we can have choice. If Microsoft 'kills' palm does anyone think we will see any change whatsoever in Windows PDAs?
It's a hard pill to swallow...
Even with all that devotion, it has become clear to me over the past year or two that Palm is dying. The endless problems with newer version of the OS also brought with it endless problems for developers. Each new release required some sort of code changes, many old programs will never be updated, and will never be able to run on newer devices. Developers slowly evaporated because of this, and as a result it's now a crapshoot if an application will work or not on a newer device.
On the consumer side, from day one it's been clear the Palm has been playing games. While other handhelds were coming out with new features like high resolution and color screens, Palm rested on its laurels. It was obvious to me, and I think to many, that they were playing games with us. They chose to only introduce one new feature at a time, and slowly they trickled out. How many times were you waiting for the next generation device, and when it was finally released it had... a little more RAM, and nothing else? This tactic allowed Palm to avoid any actual innovation, because they knew they could just bump the RAM or make a new case design, and we would still buy it. Through all of that, we zealots stayed with Palm because we loved them.
Palm pretty much invented the PDA market as it currently exists (the Newton had a much different purpose). They had the lion's share of the market, upwards of 90%. With all the missteps by Microsoft, the many failed devices and revisions of Windows Mobile, Palm should have been able to dominate -- but they didn't. Every year Windows Mobile would get better, PocketPC hardware would get better, and Palm devices pretty much stayed the same. A few years of that, and new Palms looked like last year's model when sitting next to the PocketPCs.
The future of the Palm platform is now uncertain. The company has wasted so much time and energy playing with lawyers and restructuring so many times, it has no focus on anything anymore. Palm hasn't had any major OS releases in years, and I'm wondering if any future releases will even make it out the door.
I currently have a TX, and I had so many problems with hard resets during hotsyncing, problems with my touch screen recognizing handwriting, soft resets when using WiFi and the web browser, and other compatibility problems, I'm faced with a dilemma. I still love my Palm, but I now feel I can't rely on it. I used to be able to try out new programs, but now with every new program, if something goes wrong I need to restore from backup. Doing that every time gets old. So now I have my Palm and I use it for its intended tasks, but that's it. I'm not confident enough in it to add any new apps, and certainly not enough to recommend one to others. Sure there may be workarounds for those problems, but Palms used to "just work" (Microsoft is the one you normally need workarounds for).
So what's the fix for Palm? I'm not sure, but their next PDA release better be a good one. They need to stop evolving from what they currently have and jump ahead to be on par with PocketPC. They need bright, high resolution screens, full motion video, voice recorders, vibrating alarms, virtual graffiti areas (on EVERY device), expansion slots, WiFi that works, and most of all they need to stop changing their developer API.
Palm still has time to rebound, but that window is closing fast.
RE: It's a hard pill to swallow...
Stupid. The same applies to Windows, Linux, or MacOS.
Rebuilding apps to run on a new OS should be expected... are you sure you have even the slightest experience in development?
I mean, duh. :)
------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
Incremental upgrades (GREED + LAZINESS) killed Palm
Even with all that devotion, it has become clear to me over the past year or two that Palm is dying. The endless problems with newer version of the OS also brought with it endless problems for developers. Each new release required some sort of code changes, many old programs will never be updated, and will never be able to run on newer devices. Developers slowly evaporated because of this, and as a result it's now a crapshoot if an application will work or not on a newer device.
On the consumer side, from day one it's been clear the Palm has been playing games. While other handhelds were coming out with new features like high resolution and color screens, Palm rested on its laurels. It was obvious to me, and I think to many, that they were playing games with us. They chose to only introduce one new feature at a time, and slowly they trickled out. How many times were you waiting for the next generation device, and when it was finally released it had... a little more RAM, and nothing else? This tactic allowed Palm to avoid any actual innovation, because they knew they could just bump the RAM or make a new case design, and we would still buy it. Through all of that, we zealots stayed with Palm because we loved them.
Palm pretty much invented the PDA market as it currently exists (the Newton had a much different purpose). They had the lion's share of the market, upwards of 90%. With all the missteps by Microsoft, the many failed devices and revisions of Windows Mobile, Palm should have been able to dominate -- but they didn't. Every year Windows Mobile would get better, PocketPC hardware would get better, and Palm devices pretty much stayed the same. A few years of that, and new Palms looked like last year's model when sitting next to the PocketPCs.
The future of the Palm platform is now uncertain. The company has wasted so much time and energy playing with lawyers and restructuring so many times, it has no focus on anything anymore. Palm hasn't had any major OS releases in years, and I'm wondering if any future releases will even make it out the door.
I currently have a TX, and I had so many problems with hard resets during hotsyncing, problems with my touch screen recognizing handwriting, soft resets when using WiFi and the web browser, and other compatibility problems, I'm faced with a dilemma. I still love my Palm, but I now feel I can't rely on it. I used to be able to try out new programs, but now with every new program, if something goes wrong I need to restore from backup. Doing that every time gets old. So now I have my Palm and I use it for its intended tasks, but that's it. I'm not confident enough in it to add any new apps, and certainly not enough to recommend one to others. Sure there may be workarounds for those problems, but Palms used to "just work" (Microsoft is the one you normally need workarounds for).
So what's the fix for Palm? I'm not sure, but their next PDA release better be a good one. They need to stop evolving from what they currently have and jump ahead to be on par with PocketPC. They need bright, high resolution screens, full motion video, voice recorders, vibrating alarms, virtual graffiti areas (on EVERY device), expansion slots, WiFi that works, and most of all they need to stop changing their developer API.
Palm still has time to rebound, but that window is closing fast.
Amen.
P.S. The simplest solution to your problems is to buy a Sony CLIE TH55 (European version comes with Wi-Fi + Bluetooth). I just sold a new one to an extremely grateful colleague for around what a decent laptop would go for. These days occasionally used ones pop up on eBay. The TH55 is the last high quality traditional PalmOS PDA we'll ever see. Nice screen, amazing battery life, Wi-Fi + Bluetooth, stable version of PalmOS, no broken apps, innovative CLIE Organizer software, thin + light, reliable, camera (even takes videos if you install the video app from a CLIE UX50), superb construction quality. If only Sony had added an OLED screen...
TVoR
To Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin:
Rebuilding apps to run on a new OS should be expected... are you sure you have even the slightest experience in development?
I mean, duh. :)
Kirvin, asinine comments like this from you make all Palm Apologists look bad.
TVoR
RE: It's a hard pill to swallow...
This is why I am now using a Toshiba E800 Windows Mobile device. I could have used a TX or even more I would have loved a Zire 73 camera model to replace my Z72.
Alas. FITALY won't run. WordSmith hasn't been updated for years. It's over.
Oh, and Surer, you ARE still working on that list of apps that outdoes Textmaker, PocketArtist, Laridian Bible, etc. that so outdistance any and all POS apps? Right. That list will appear any day now. OK.
RE: It's a hard pill to swallow...
Which is precisely the reason I won't upgrade my T650 to the 700p: besides from the increased RAM it doesn't offer anything else worth upgrading to. The 700p is already old - given its size and weight it should at least have Wifi and 3g, and perhaps even GPS incorporated.
So until Palm comes out with something really new (I'd even accept the current Treo [feature wise] but in a much smaller package - simply removing the antenna won't do) I'll be enjoying the latest hardware and features in the shape of either Nokia's E-series or UIQ. I honestly hope though that I'll have a reason to come back to Palm in the future....
Palm Vx (a classic) -> Palm 505 (*yawn*) -> Dell Axim (slooow...) -> Palm TE (great) -> Qtek 9090 (great idea, lousy platform) -> Nokia 6630 (a toy) -> iMate SP3i (not bad) -> Treo 650 (almost perfect)
RE: It's a hard pill to swallow...
Why does it lose marketshare then?
(personally I find Sukumar's Blog entry pretty silly. Its based on Hindsight and retrofitting an explanation. If he was so good at marketing wisdom, why didnt he launch something as great and cult-ish as the iPod or the BB? Hindsight, we are all wise)
1) I am not sure if marketers EXACTLY understand what sells. If they did, every product would be an iPod.
2) People do not necessarily make rational decisions when buying a product/brand. These decisions are mostly emotional with a BIT of rationale (If I had the money, I would buy a Jaguar, so what if after sales service is poor and expensive? How do you buy your toothpaste? by percentage of flouride content?) The iPod always had competition that offered more and cost less (FM+More Storage+Video etc). The success of iPod DOES NOT DEPEND ON THE ITUNES MUSIC STORE alone. It depends on product 'Cool-th', followed by high visibility in the market and a chain reaction.
3) I am no Guru, but I think what can definitely HELP Palm, is
a) more aggressive marketing in emerging markets (Asia). I am in india and see NO effort whatsoever to sell Palm. Although Windows devices are being sold at every nook and corner. more market visibility, more chances are consumer will buy your product.
b) Reduce price of unlocked Palms. I know of at least 10 people who are dying to buy a treo. In india its not packaged with a service and we end up paying over 650 USD for a treo 650. not worth it, compared to the economy. people compare it to the price of an entry level Laptop. Its a months EMI for a mercedes Benz. Its two way travel two times to Singapore for a holiday. thats also your competition (price wise). its three months rent for a half decent One bedroom apartment in New Delhi or Mumbai.
c) release MANY MORE number of PALM SMARTPHONE models. again, speaking of emerging markets, theres little space for a standalone PDA. a smartphone is the ultimate. People travel in public transport packed like Chicken Coops and no one wants to carry EVEN ONE THING EXTRA. who wants to carry a PDA+Phone+Camera+Laptop+music player? more choice of devices of course, makes sure theres something at every price point.
d) i am surprised Palm still doesnt offer a smartphone packaged with a Service in India? and I see NO palm advertising here? blackberry had, and they sold over 10,000 pieces WITHOUT THE SERVICE SUBSIDY! thats close to USD 6 Million. maynot be much, but product visibility in the consumers hands is perhaps one of the biggest marketing strategies!
RE: It's a hard pill to swallow...
sorry, i found this a little late...
Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
Palm OS offers a superior user experience.
I will continue to buy Palm OS handhelds.
OLED is key to triggering a new revolution in handheld adoption.
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
-------------------------------
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
Will the big handset makers kill them off by commoditizing the market? Perhaps. But a cheaper low-end solution is apparently on the cards and if Palm do it right, then they can fight in the both the commodity space *and* the premium market, selling to fans of both OSs.
In short: I share the sentiment, Vamp.
This sig is a placeholder till I come up with something good
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
Be patient. That's going to change soon.
BTW, did you see that Nokia has done the second release of maemo?
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
Oh, I know! It's code-named Hollywood. :P
This sig is a placeholder till I come up with something good
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
I think the mobile device market is now diversifying into gadgets that do something, and can do some other things also, which may or may not interest the buyer, e.g. buying a phone for being a good music player, which may also happen to do e-mail, or buying a good camera phone that can also do the web, or buying a GPS phone that can keep your calender.
Feature phones are a huge market, and there are more people who want one good feature, than people who want a general smartphone. WM devices are achieving the diversity now to start offering the features that people are asking for, instead of offering a mediocre general solution.
Examples would include a 8GB music phone with A2DP, or GPS phones (multiple examples) or phones with over the air TV.
The fact is that the volume is down-market, and while I like the look of the Moto Q I really wonder how many people really want a messaging phone (the only reason for the QWERTY keyboard). I suspect many more would like a 4GB Itunes phone, or a 3 Megapixel high quality camera phone.
PalmOS currently has not got the diversity to play in this market, and its all about messaging. The Q is trying to be about work and play (as per the thesis of the article), but I think the market has diversified so much that this isn't really what its all about at the moment.
Consumers move in herds, but they also want choice. This is one of the reasons why Microsoft won on the desktop (consistent OS, but multiple hardware suppliers). POS is just not supplying that at the moment. POS is on the way to the Mac niche, respected, even loved, but a small market, while WM is following the trajectory of its bigger brother windows, mainly by licensing to all comers. This is allowing them to hit a wide range of form factors and price points, and this will eventually allow them to win the market.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
This is gonna gey UGLY, real soon now.
Be patient. That's going to change soon.
BTW, did you see that Nokia has done the second release of maemo?
http://maemo.org/platform/docs/roadmap.html
http://maemo.org/#date_09062006
Barely a year old and they're breaking the OS already. Bastards! But with VoIP and app serving eventually on board, once Nokia packages maemoČ into one of their N92 and N73 form factors, Palm can kiss its dreams of enterprise sales goodbye.
Consumers move in herds, but they also want choice. This is one of the reasons why Microsoft won on the desktop (consistent OS, but multiple hardware suppliers). POS is just not supplying that at the moment. POS is on the way to the Mac niche, respected, even loved, but a small market, while WM is following the trajectory of its bigger brother windows, mainly by licensing to all comers. This is allowing them to hit a wide range of form factors and price points, and this will eventually allow them to win the market.
Precisely. PalmOS needed the presence of some big name handset manufacturers like Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Samsung that would be capable of quickly designing + releasing several REAL phones that consumers could actually purchase. (Vaporware doesn't count.)
You're wrong about the phone market, though. It has ALREADY evolved into a place where multifunction devices rule. Just try finding a basic cellphone that doesn't come with a camera. We're now at the stage that so-called feature phones will be shipping with address book, calendar, camera, web browser, email, MP3 player (with expansion card), video player, TV viewer. Differentiation between commodity feature phones and boutique phones will be based on size, style, built-in memory, camera megapixel size/quality, and "extras" like dual cameras (for videoconferencing), Wi-Fi + VoIP, keyboards, GPS, metal casings, OLED screens, etc. These phones are already pretty "smart", but true smartphones have the advantage of ease of use, keyboards (usually), more robust applications, better email handling and a huge application library.
Palm sat still over the past 3 years and threw away the two year head start on the competition that Handspring had handed to them. Like in the story of the Tortoise and the Hare, the slow, plodding pace of the Tortoise (Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, etc.) is about to overcome jackrabbit start of the Hare (Handspring/Palm). It's a shame Motorola didn't win out in the bidding for PallmSource - at least they would have kept PalmOS alive.
TVoR
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
*looks at belt*
hmm... looks like a Nokia 6015i to me.
May You Live in Interesting Times
Very good, Marty.
*looks at belt*
hmm... looks like a Nokia 6015i to me.
Good for you, Marty. But what percent of new phones released in the past year do you think did NOT ship with a built-in camera? Drop by your local Sprint store for a little edumacation.
TVoR
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
percentage by model count or percentage by shipment volume?
More than half, probably as many as 2/3 by model count.
I don't have numbers for shipment volume, for the last year, but for the last time I did, it was around 75%.
so-called disposable phones are really skewing the numbers, because they are extremely cheap and not meant to last very long.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Palm OS vs Windows Mobile
percentage by model count or percentage by shipment volume?
More than half, probably as many as 2/3 by model count.
I don't have numbers for shipment volume, for the last year, but for the last time I did, it was around 75%.
so-called disposable phones are really skewing the numbers, because they are extremely cheap and not meant to last very long.
Model count. Last time I checked, around 75% of new phones came with a camera. Cameras have now become a mainstream feature that is almost mandatory if a handset maker hopes to have a chance. And the number of cameraphones is only going to go up. Eventually, ALL phones will have most of the features currently only seen on high end smartphones. (Some of the newer cameraphones actually aren't that bad - snapshot takers will probably be satisfied with a 5 megapixel cameraphone as being their ONLY camera.)
TVoR
P.S. NOW do you believe me that Nokia is going to use maemo as an OS in their phone lineup? Expect an announcement before the end of the year.
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The blunt truth
1. mp3/video player
2. camera
3. phone
4. web browser
5. GPS
6. digital assistant
etc., etc., etc.
It would not surprise me if one day an mp3 player came equipped with a blood-glucose monitor.
Fact is, I carry the Treo with me because it reduces to one what would otherwise be three devices: phone, pda and mp3 player. Is it the best in any one category? No, but it's more than most.
Personally, I lament not have a grafitti area, but not enough to make my old T3, which I still use, my main device.