Motley Fool Article on Palm's Future
A mildly ominous article has been posted by the Motley Fool's Tim Beyers. Dated June 30, 2006, the article goes into considerable comparing and contrasting Palm's fiscal year '06 standings vs. the previous two years. Several reasons for the company's first quarter of negative cash flow since 2003 are also illustrated. Of particular interest is a statement concerning a 63% rise in Palm's inventory in Q4 2006. The article does not mention if any distinction is made between older, leftover PDA inventory or unsold Treo inventory. Recent rumors have pointed to high return rates for the 700w. Additionally, Treo 700w's sales figures have been vaguely disclosed as, at worst, disappointing or at best, slower to ramp up than expected by Palm. These factors combined with the relentless competition by other handset manufacturers could account for much of the negative news. A recent article on Forbes points to an upcoming smartphone price battle due to competition with Motorola.
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RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
So let's see how the Treo stacks up...
A. it's a brick...
B. it's heavy...
C. in a fat clunky design...
D. doesn't have WiFi...
E. the screen is puny (and square)...
F. it's a lousy phone...
G. and it's also terribly overpriced.
Worst of all this product is the glue holding Palm together. When Colligan announced that four Treo models would be released this year it was automatically assumed they would be completely different, targeted, devices ranging in prices. Turns out they were all the same one, just for different carriers. 700p and 700w for CMDA carriers, and now the yet to be announced GSM 700p and 700w for GSM networks. There's your four Treo models. This is a recipe for death.
Palm's competitors are simply innovating to fast, and Palm is too small a player in this space to keep up. If you've tracked Palm's smartphone roll outs as I have you see a patter emerge; it takes Palm a full year to roll out just ONE model, in different flavors. Just one. So as the last "new" 700 model is being introduced, Motorola will be delivering it's second Q model probably with more WM devices waiting in the queue as well. And this isn't including the seemingly endless sea of devices HTC keeps churning out (uninspiring though they may be). Palm is going to be steamrolled.
Selling off Palm is the right thing to do, the problem is it's too late. As it is now, Palm has no real value. The aren't hardware IP company. They aren't a software IP company. Hell, they barely qualify as value added reseller. So, as I posed in another thread...what is Palm? That's a question I don't think even the Palm's board or management team knows.
-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
And still narrower than the E61, which some (well, me :P ) prefer in their phone.
B. it's heavy...
It also has an excellent removable battery. Take it out and see how light it is without it - practically featherweight. I suppose the question is what's more important - a few less grams of weight, or longer battery life?
C. in a fat clunky design...
Still narrower than the E61. Nitro/Lennon is removing the antenna and (probably) slimming it down a bit. Fits perfectly in your hand. What's not to like?
D. doesn't have WiFi...
Yes, it's annoying. But the Enfora sled is available for those who really need it and since most people with Treos are going to be on some kind of data plan it's not that critical. Once the inevitable happens and wifi (or some form) is ubiquitous, then it will be a problem.
E. the screen is puny (and square)...
Oh please! Even if the E61s screen is the most gorgeous handheld screen ever devised, you can't call the Treo's screen "puny". It's bright, beautiful and is competitive with pretty much any other phone or media player on the market.
Square is a little annoying, but it gives you a taller view than widescreen. Sometimes that can be better. And it's pretty much all the form factor will allow.
F. it's a lousy phone...
I've never had any complaints. Ever. Could stand to be a bit louder, maybe. It has a superbly user-friendly call interface. The person on the other end can hear me talking. I can hear them talking. What more do you need from your phone?
G. and it's also terribly overpriced.
Indeed.
The Treo's looking dated and costs too much, but it's still a very nice device.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
There will soon be shedloads of software for it - it needs to be recomplied from earlier symbian versions, but right now out of the box it has a full email client, browser, RSS reader, Mp3 etc player, Video player, spreadsheet, word processor, presentation package, bluetooth printing and so on. Value wise its on a different plane
Reading what I see about the new Treo - a 1.3Mp camera - so what - Sony Ericsson have just brought out a phone with an autofocus camera of 3.2 Mp
One last thing - Palm have really cocked up in Europe where the Treo and Lifedrive can no longer be imported due to the amount of lead they contain (no I'm serious). The new Treo isn't expected until Christmas and then only on Vodafone, so anyone wanting a palm phone before then has to find an old stock 650 (and ignore the adverse publicity) or go elsewhere
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
In the past - and probably still, however - PALM has outright stated that seasonal effects are minimal with TREO sales - that is, Christmas doesn't make things better since folks don't tend to buy phones based off it.
Then again, maybe Europeans are different, eh?
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
B. it's heavy...
It also has an excellent removable battery. Take it out and see how light it is without it - practically featherweight. I suppose the question is what's more important - a few less grams of weight, or longer battery life?
I'm sorry but I can't quite see the logic in discussing how light the battery is? Surely it's about how heavy carrying around the whole working phone is?
D. doesn't have WiFi...
Yes, it's annoying. But the Enfora sled is available for those who really need it and since most people with Treos are going to be on some kind of data plan it's not that critical. Once the inevitable happens and wifi (or some form) is ubiquitous, then it will be a problem.
I could never really understand the benefit of wifi in a mobile either ..till I actually got one. True, most of us are on data plans but (in the uk at least) data usage is still obscenely expensive! Now, with an E61, downloading podcasts, news feeds, web pages, weather & currency updates, It's all FREE on my home net. Takes a couple of minutes before I leave the house each morning & my phone is set up for the rest of the day. It's saving me a fortune on my mobile tariff.
Inventory issues?
My guess would be one of the following (in order of ascending likelihood):
A. Unsold Treo 700Ws-unlikely since it's sold by ONE carrier in ONE country and Palm & VZW worked very closely for the device's development/launch/marketing/troubleshooting.
B. Unsold LifeDrives-This is always a distinct possibility. I was in BestBuy last week and they had the TXs & LDs out of lockup and just piled in a HEAP on the bottom shelf of the computer monitors area (!). I asked the guy and he said they had "no room for specialty stuff like that" in the mobile department.
C. Unsold T|E2s-Perhaps Palm has produced its final E2 but, given the recent repackaging of the unit, has stockpiled enough units to last through next year sometime. This, IMO, is a likely possibility.
D. Treo 650s-Given the recent news of the EU's RoHS laws stamping out the LD & 650 and the delay/lack of a new POS GSM Treo, Palm could have cranked out a huge pile of 650s (its component costs must be drastically cheper now than in '04) to keep major markets satisfied at least through year's end. I haver a feeling this is the main reason for the inventory backlog.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Touchscreen? Threaded SMS? :P
Treo comes with full email client, browser, music player, video player (albeit not many formats) and Docs2Go, an occasionally unstable but otherwise superb mobile office package. There's dozens of apps available to customise it any way you see fit.
I'm sorry but I can't quite see the logic in discussing how light the battery is? Surely it's about how heavy carrying around the whole working phone is?
I'm merely pointing out there are reasons the Treo is heavy, and one of them is not a bad one: you get a powerful battery.
Now, with an E61, downloading podcasts, news feeds, web pages, weather & currency updates, It's all FREE on my home net. Takes a couple of minutes before I leave the house each morning & my phone is set up for the rest of the day. It's saving me a fortune on my mobile tariff.
My Treo does the same thing sitting on it's pretty Innodock cradle every day. It's called AvantGo. :P I can also do it wirelessly by Bluetooth if need be.
Wifi's great, but not essential.
I'm not knocking the E61. It seems a very nice device. But until I get to play with one, I don't see what it offers that my Treo doesn't already. Apart from looks. Obviously.
I'm very comfy in my groove. Until Nitro comes out. ;)
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
I think that's it too. And if 700-series sales have been softer than expected that'd be part of it as well.
Interesting times...
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Of note is that Moto sold 150 000+ Qs in 30 days on Verizon. It is estimated that Palm only sold 100 000 Treo 700ws on Verizon in 90 days. To many the Q appears to be a more compelling device.
Moto also said 100s of businesses are trialing the Q. It appears even in the enterprise space the Treo 700w is not safe.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
http;//www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
> stockpile of inventory mentioned in the report?...
PALM explicitly said two key related things: (1) TREO 700W enterprise sales are not proceeding as expected ("still in trials" and "Long lead time to sale" excuses) and (2) the European channels were stuffed with TREO 650s prior to the June 30th low-lead(pb) deadline.
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Man, this board is depressing. The sky is falling, Palm sucks, Q rules, Nokia kicks ass, Samsung wins....
A couple of counterpoints to surur's post:
1, Moto shipped 150K of Q in 30 days, not sold. To be fair, most consumer electonic companies, if not all, report based on ship-in not ship-out. How many of those Q were actually sold and/or returned is anybody's guess.
2, Moto management said that it was going to ship 750K of Q in the first 90 days when Q was first launched. Guess moto was a "little" optimistic?
3, Given Q's low price($200 less than a 700), I was surprised that moto only shipped 50K more units in the first 30 days.
I have a 650 and I am very happy with it. And that's what matter to me.
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
You're probably wondering why we make such a fuss about wifi in Europe. Right now I'm trying to find out GPRS roaming costs for a trip to Italy. Per Mb, the rates available to me range from 5.12UKP to 10.00UKP - thats about 9.45USD to 18.50USD per MB. Within the UK its usual to pay in the order of 2UKP per Mb (you can do it cheaper). Most times I can pay a tiny fraction of that (or nothing) for wifi access.
The 700 looks to me like a phone about 18 months after its time, and I say that with real sadness, since I go back all the way to a Palm IIIx
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
http;//www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Oh and congrats on your new post @ PDA247, Surur.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
Palm is completely incompetent and their latest offerings are horrible. If they can't produce something with a modern PalmOS soon, they won't exist much longer. But at this point I'm willing to say they deserve it.
Calling all hardware makers:
I will buy a PalmOS device not using Franketgarnet from ANYONE!
Please someone pick up the OS so we can let Palm die!
The Price Isn't Right?
However in the Windows world, the competition is different and your hard earned dollars go a longer way... Wi-Fi anyone?
When industry standard features are obviously left out for the sake of a greater profit margin, people will just not bite...
Remember when the Tungsten T5 came out without Wi-Fi?
Deja vu
RE: The Price Isn't Right?
Soon to be getting a T|X ( or maybe T5, Lifedrive or Treo - I can't decide!)
RE: The Price Isn't Right?
-The PalmPilot was what the original Pilot should have been (no backlight? Even in 1996 that sucked!)
-The Palm Vx was what the V should have been
-The m515 was what the m505 should have been
-The T2 was what the T|T should have been
-The TX was what the T5 should have been (sort of)
-The Treo 650 was what the Treo 600 could have been had Handspring not been broke and sinking faster than a rock. Accordingly, the 700P is what the 650 should have been or at least released 6-8 months (fall '05) earlier than it was.
Playing this perpetual "coulda, shoulda, why didn't they?" game gets old very quickly with Palm. Look at all of the different permutations of the V3 by Motorola. There's a featureset, color, price point and (counting the L7) a formfactor for almost everyone. If the Treo line had even 1/10th of that variety Palm wouldn't have so many analysts/users/pundits urging them to sell out ASAP...
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P
WM Treo not selling well.
* RAGING ROUND OF APPLAUSE *
Good! I never did like the WM move and if it fails I would be happy. Maybe Palm Inc. will get back to perfecting Palm OS 5, OS 6 and/or ALP. What a disgraceful and humiliating day it was when Verizon, Gates and Colligan were all on stage celebrating the defeat of PalmOS under the guise of "offering consumers MORE CHOICE! WOW!". Anyways...
WM is slow, WM is akward to use, the 240x240 screen is too low res and WM does not run right (alarms going off randomly or not at all, music starts playing when you turn on the device, etc). WM plain sucks.
By the way, how can all those people be returning WM Treos if they are under cell phone carrier contracts?
I pray ALP will be fast and have the Palm OS simplicity and convenience. Please God please.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
Where do you get that from? The article never mentions the WM Treo at all. The 700w is only about 20% of Palm's Treo sales, and you'd have to engage in a ludicrous amount of fact-stretching to single-handedly attribute to it a 63% rise in inventory.
WM is slow, WM is akward to use, the 240x240 screen is too low res and WM does not run right (alarms going off randomly or not at all, music starts playing when you turn on the device, etc). WM plain sucks.
Whatever you used, I advise you have it exorcised.
By the way, how can all those people be returning WM Treos if they are under cell phone carrier contracts?
They couldn't be. And who said anything about people returning the 700w? And who said anything about the 700w in the first place? Where the hell are you getting all this?
I pray ALP will be fast and have the Palm OS simplicity and convenience. Please God please.
Palm Inc has no interest in ALP whatsoever. They were unwilling to commit to anything about it when it was still PalmLinux, and they've never even acknowledged the fact that it exists since the buyout. Further, Palm and Access are not on terribly good terms. Palm and ALP, not going to happen.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
Further, Palm and Access are not on terribly good terms.
Yeah - that recent interview gave Access an opportunity to talk about how excited they are about their continued symbiotic relationship with Palm Inc. The fact that the recent 'scoop' Access interview was so muted leaves me quite concerned on that front and wondering whether Palm themselves really have the drive to bring out their own next generation Linux-based OS.
If not, this time next year, we may all be customers of Nokia/Motorola or some other manufacturer who actually invests in innovation and product stability (I love my TX but is does have some silly niggles that should have been worked out... like being able to remember the left-handedness setting after a reset!).
KultiVator
p.s. Come on Palm/PalmSource - you need to step things up a gear and do more to inform the public about your future roadmap. Let's see technology dems on test rigs/emulators - we don't even need to see the upcoming devices, just a glimpse of the future of Palm. We just need to see that our investment in your devices has somewhere left to go - so we don't jump ship before your next round of (most likely) uninspired hardware refreshes.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
Things would have been more pleasant if Palm had not been outbid to acquire PalmSource. btw, whatever happened to Motorola's (or was is Nokia's?) plans to sue PalmSource for breach of an agreement to sell out to them?
------------
Would be so simple to use Cobalt instead. *shaking of head in cynical disbelief*. Time to market, schmarket, all an illusion. When did Palm get that crazy idea anyways? I bet it was following the fiasco with Sandisk when Palm and Sandisk got into what looked like a legal fight and then Palm could not provide a quick wifi card for its devices (because they could not get wifi drivers developed).
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OK let me jump wildly back to the Treo 700w for sec..
Palm said/says and supporters say that it is to penetrate the corporate market. That is bs in my humble educated highly wise opinion. I know of some big companies that embrace the Treo 650 and the workers love them. I even know of a major multinational that orders huge numbers of Treo 650s for its workforce. They are used because they are reliable, they are wireless, they are phones and PEOPLE FIND PALM OS EASY TO USE. All these dummy companies poo-pooing PalmOS because of their disillusion that anything serious has to be Microsoft simply need to be enlightened. At the end of the day if the workers are more productive, more connected and happy, that is all that counts. Corporate basic requirements are Exchange, high wifi security keys, simplicity, low maintenance costs and reliability.
Man.. this ALP better offer that same edge to workers or else things will get very ugly for Palm. Id almost say that staying with OS 5 forever is probably better than releasing a slow or buggy ALP. Time will tell. I would be crapping my pants if I was Colligan in the wait of ALP.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
> and the workers love them. I even know of a major multinational
> that orders huge numbers of Treo 650s for its workforce. They are
> used because they are reliable, they are wireless, they are
> phones and PEOPLE FIND PALM OS EASY TO USE...
Oh really?
Name them!
Or disclose why you don't.
=====
Yahoo has a nice reminder about message board posts that is aimed at investors rather than general readership but it really applies everywhere under any situation, not just investing; maybe PalmInfocenter should have one, too:
-----
Words to remember:
== "...Information posted to message boards
== should not be used as a substitute for
== independent research, and should not be
== relied on to trade or make investment
== decisions. Prudent investors do their
== homework and don't believe everything they
== read on message boards..."
==
== "...Never assume people are who they say
== they are, know what they say they know, or
== are affiliated with whom they say they are
== affiliated..."
-- http://messages.yahoo.com/reminder.html
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
> and the workers love them. I even know of a major multinational
> that orders huge numbers of Treo 650s for its workforce. They are
> used because they are reliable, they are wireless, they are
> phones and PEOPLE FIND PALM OS EASY TO USE...
Oh really?
Name them!
I pulled these from Palm's press room:
PHT Corp
Monster.com
Foxhollow Technologies
invivodata
SanDisk
Sun Microsystems
Primerica
SureXpress
Ariba
There were more, I just really couldn't be bothered listing them all.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
As an ex PalmOS fanatic I can succinctly state that WM5 is a fine and worthy OS, second only to Symbian now. M$'s 1Q07 successor will solidify this position as it brings us even closer to fully mobile presence management.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
And regarding all the whining here about "PALM shoulda, coulda, I know better and soon all the mighty competition will crush'em" I pollitely remember that took MightyMotorola almost 2 years to come out with the clumsy Q, WinCE smartphone edition that cannot install PocketPC apps and cannot edit Office files. Samsung, BenQ, and others announced devices that are nowere to be found, and even the king, NOKIA, just now, after years of bricks, has the E61, a copy of the Treo.
I do have a bias? Sure, I'm a PALM investor.
The best to the board. (no, not you Hengeem)
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
Also from the Yahoo message boards:
-----
Words to remember:
== "...Information posted to message boards
== should not be used as a substitute for
== independent research, and should not be
== relied on to trade or make investment
== decisions. Prudent investors do their
== homework and don't believe everything they
== read on message boards..."
==
== "...Never assume people are who they say
== they are, know what they say they know, or
== are affiliated with whom they say they are
== affiliated..."
-- http://messages.yahoo.com/reminder.html
Giggle.
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
That's an uninformed opinion ever there was one. The E61 has as much in common with the Treo as mashed potatoes have to gravel. They're both smartphones with Qwerty keyboards, that's about as far as the similarities go. Or are you under the delusional assumption that Nokia somehow copied Palm simply because they designed their smartphone with a Qwerty too? Newsflash: Palm (originally Handspring) copied the Blackberry. RIM was first to market with Qwerty communicators, not Palm. So you might want to rethink that, because both Palm and Nokia have berry stained hands.
-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com
RE: WM Treo not selling well.
Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
"Innovation is dead!"
Which of the above two catchphrases is true with respect to the smartphone world? I'm not sure that I know the answer to that question anymore. Do you?
After years of coming up empty, Handspring struck gold with its last corporate breath when it created the brilliant Treo 600. Make no mistake about it - the Treo 600 was an innovative device. In the PalmOS world the Treo 600 is second only to the original Pilot 1000 in terms of historical significance and (in my opinion) second only to the Sony CLIE UX50 in terms of purity of design/engineering. I've always been impressed by the amout of thought that went into Handspring's Treo 600 Hail Mary (touchdown) pass. Even the fact that this impressive design unfortunately was subsequently crippled by suboptimal construction and underwhelming parts selection did not diminish what the Treo 600 was able to accomplish.
Palm later took advantage of Handspring's innovation and hitched palm0ne/Palm, Inc. up to the Treo Express and rode it back to (barely) profitability. Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, et. al. have had 3 years to observe the successes and failures of Handspring's innovation and have no doubt learned several real world lessons about smartphone usability/design from Handspring's protracted beta hardware test (let's be honest here) called the Treo 600/650/700p.
Has the Treo franchaise been successful? Yes it has. No it has not. You decide. Ever-increasing sales of high margin Treo handsets have brought a much-needed injection of cash into Palm's coffers, but in the long run the Treo may become a two-edged sword. Much of the Treo's success is attributable to two facts:
1) Palm's failure to release any compelling high end PDAs since Palm began focusing on the smartphone branch of the company likely allowed the Treo to cannibalize sales to customers that would have otherwise bought a traditional tablet-style PDA. While this conjecture is impossible to prove, the rise in Treo sales have been accompanied by a similar decline in sales of traditional tablet-style PalmOS PDAs. The PalmOS device market appears to be finite - at least as long as devices contine to be sold at current price levels.
2) Up until now Palm has had no serious competitors in the smartphone world. The Treo is the de facto standard for smartphone design and even today no competitor can match its combination of integrated OS, User Interface, keyboard, size, price and application library.
But the sword cuts both ways and the smartphone Muses that giveth in 2004-06 may taketh (and draweth a lot of blood [red ink]) in 2006-07. Ed Colligan has assumed a somewhat... precarious... position: genuflected before Lord Bill Gates, while desperately clutching the blade of the sword held to his neck by his (other) new master (The Carriers). Oh dear. What's a poor CEO to do? Palm no longer has to satisfy the capriciousness of end users one at a time. Now the company only has to court (and satisfy the capriciousness of) a limited number of carriers. Unfortunately, Palm had essentially ZERO experience in the Art of Seduction of Carriers prior to the Handspring merger, and even the Handspring cellphone people they picked up in the merger are relative newbies in the cellphone business. Pundits who watch the cellphone industry have been routinely bemused by the repeated bumblings of Handspring/Palm over the years. Palm's lack of a significantly new Treo product since the original Treo 600 was released almost 3 years ago is rather unfortunate and quite telling. Sometimes Palm's actions appear akin to seppuku...
I feel the Treo 600 was at least 2 years ahead of its time. I say this as a compliment, meaning its combination of OS, UI, keyboard and software was so well integrated that it would take the competition two years to produce a competitive device for the same price. But the Treo's position as a smartphone at least 2 years ahead of its time cuts both ways. Was the (non-geek) world "ready" for an all-out smartphone in 2003? Or even in 2006? Looking at 2003 - 2006's wireless network speeds + data costs, processor speeds (Moore's Law), battery technology, screen size, capabilities of existing smartphone OSes, Bill of Materials (including memory costs and screen costs), do smartphones automatically restrict their appeal to a very limited market? A market that just wasn't worth breaking a sweat over the past 2 years trying to woo, since it would inevitably evaporate* (*see below) anyway? Sony Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola's failure up until now to introduce a "Treo-killer" at a price that undercuts the Treo suggests that doing so wasn't worth it to them. (Trust me - any of the top 10 handset manufacturers could have easily produced a better "Treo 700" than Palm in 2006 if they wanted to...) Looking at what happened to Samsung's brilliant i500 and ill-fated i550 PalmOS smartphones gives a few clues as to why we haven't seen a tidal wave of all-out smartphones since the Treo 600 came onto the market.
One could take this a step further and pose the question I did on Michael Mace's clever blog site: In the end, if no one really wants to perform computing tasks on a cellphone, perhaps smartphones are an answer to a question that no one was asking?
Yikes! Now how's that for profound?
http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2006/06/we-need-new-mobile-platform-sort-of.html
Smartphone advocates tend to ignore the obvious fact that performing computing functions with crippled apps on a tiny 1 - 2 inch smartphone screen is a major hassle. Micro tablets (with 4 to 6 inch screens) like the Sony VAIO UX50 running Windows XP + genuine Windows apps + connected via Bluetooth to a tiny EVDO smartphone (or containing a cellphone radio) make a lot more sense for ultra mobile computing than smartphones do. Adequate screen size for video viewing + regular computing; decent sized keyboard; running the same software as regular desktops + laptops. THIS is the future of mobile computing.
When you take a close look at what sells to the average (non-geek) consumer and to the business world, it becomes increasingly obvious that smartphones like the Treo 600/650/700 are living on borrowed time. Consumers like simple, small, stylish devices that do a limited number of tasks and do them well. Compare the cellphones produced by Sony Ericsson, Samsung and Nokia to Palm's current offerings (Treo 650/700w/700p). How does Palm stand a chance against the powerhouses of the handset world?
http://www.sonyericsson.com/spg.jsp?cc=us&lc=en&ver=4000&template=pp1&zone=pp&lm=pp
http://www.samsungtelecom.com/recommend/view_all.asp
http://www.nokiausa.com/phones/comparephones
The best consumer electronics also need to work straight out of the box, without needing to consult a manual. Apple's iPod is a great example of consumer design done right. Palm, on the other hand, has blown a number of opportunities to solidify it's long term future by failing to simplify the number of steps needed to use its devices to the fullest. (Ironic, coming from a company that used to stress attentiveness to minimizing the number of taps needed to perform a given function).
Features Palm failed to exploit:
1) PalmOS software library. Every Palm device since 1999 should have shipped with a CD containing a simple, easy-to-browse catalog of the top 1000 PalmOS applications, containing screenshots + app descriptions and allowing 1-click installation of apps to the device. Deleting apps should have been improved by integrating an app like Uninstall Manager into PalmOS. Every Palm device since 2003 should have shipped with a library of trial applications loaded onto a browsable (and preferrably upgradable) 256 MB memory chip. Palm could easily have coded an SD card browser/installer app; the SD card would have cost peanuts to produce + expenses could have been lessened by charging commercial developers a fee for preferential listing of their applications by the browser.
2) MP3 player. Palm has yet to ship a device with a simple, high quality MP3 player and software aimed at rivalling the organizing ability of iTunes. Now that featurephones with MP3 capabilities are becoming commonplace (e.g. http://www.samsung.com/Products/MobilePhones/Sprint/SPH_A920WSSXAR.asp) the window of opportunity for leveraging MP3 capability to sell PalmOS devices has effectively closed.
3) Video player. Palm has yet to ship a device with a simple, high quality video player and software capable of easily creating + managing video files. The window of opportunity for leveraging video capability to sell PalmOS devices will likely be closed before the end of 2006. PalmOS lacks high end hardware for video playback (the stunning OLED-screened CLIE VZ90 + TCPMP showed how much wasted potential PalmOS had for video use); PalmOS has no Slingbox player; featurephones now offer mobile TV playback and other advaced content that PalmOS lacks. Video appears to be a lost cause for PalmOS.
4) Email. Palm had a golden opportunity to dominate the lucrative "push" emailmarket that RIM currently is making BILLIONS of $$$ from. Instead of creating and aggressively marketing a turn key Palm-branded email solution (Treo/Wi-Fi PDAs/software) to businesses, Palm took the... passive approach and left it up to individual companies like Good, Seven, etc to try to grow this market and provide the software to run on Palm's high margin Treos. The result was a fragmented smattering of offerings from several different companies, each too small to gain the trust of big business. Had Palm simply licensed a single push email solution and made it a standard component of the Treo package they could have become the new RIM and assured themselves a stable future supplying + supporting devices for wealthy corporate customers for many years to come.
In 2006 we will see that most of the functions previously thought to define the abilities of a smartphone are actually offered by featurephones as well. And in many cases, featurephones can perform these so-called "smartphone" functions more efficiently than full-fledged smartphones like the Treo family. It is also becoming obvious that the much-ballyhooed PalmOS library is a white elephant. The Average Joe doesn't want to hunt for a dozen obscure applications needed just to fix missing functionality within their device. A well designed inexpensive featurephone with simple, intuitive software for MP3 playback and management, video/TV playback and email, all combined in a small, stylish, light shell with high voice quality will likely be exponentially more popular with the Average Joe than phones like the Treos.
It appears that the reason the major handset manufacturers didn't go after the Treo may have been because this type of device (smartphones) was doomed from Day 1. The Treo-style smartphones' 15 minutes of fame appears to be over. Multifunction phone-centric featurephones, traditional laptops (and possibly micro tablets running Windows XP/Vista) are the future. Has Jeff Hawkins' secret project been killed off by the natural (inevitable) evolution of traditional devices (cellphones + laptops)? Apparently.
TVoR
Copyright 2006.
(my final article/opinion piece submission to Palminfocenter)
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
It all depends on what computing functions you need, doesn't it?
Y'know what's so likeable about the Treo? (Well one thing anyway) It features an OS that was always designed for small screens, mobile input and later, one-handed operation. Unlike Windows Mobile it owes very little functionality to desktop OS design. Beyond the UI advantages, though, are the benefits it offers in speed and battery life. Unlike featurephones (which I assume are defined as having closed operating systems) a smartphone gives you choice – a huge variety of apps that are designed with mobility in mind. While this matters little to the consumer masses, there is and always will be people out there who want that choice in their phone. Geeks such as myself, businesses, whoever. So it's not and may never be a huge market; so what? So long as there's money to be made from it...
I think the future of phones is actually probably going to eventually wind up being more like Star Trek (oh God, I really am a geek...) with a teensy little badge or something similar - earpiece, cufflink, whatever – that you talk through. You'll use a little tablet for everything else.
But that day is still a long ways off. And until it arrives, I intend to cut down on the clutter in my pockets. When I leave the house, I only ever need three things: keys, wallet, Treo. I don't really need a full-on mobile PC; there are desktops PCs everywhere I go (literally) and it's hard to keep a tablet in your pocket. It's also a cheaper solution than buying seperate devices that can do all the same things my smartphone can. I'm sure the same is true for a lot of people's lifestyles.
The smartphone market may eventually be taken over by featurephones that offer all the same things, but all that really means is that the definitions have changed. As you said, Palm's window to do some creative things (a 320x480 Treo, for instance) is rapidly closing. But it ain't shut yet.
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Oh, and you're not allowed to leave PIC. The mighty freakout forbids it. Thus is the Word.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
I agree with much of what you said. I would love to see a BIGGER smartphone that had an almost full size keyboard with a larger screen. Maybe 7" x 3.5". This would solve a lot of problems.
Part of the problem though, is that NONE of these larger devices support cell phone service. Doesn't that seem a bit odd? Like maybe the software/equipment manufacturers are mssing the boat? I'd love a lightweight mini-notebook that I could use as a cell phone with a bluetooth headset. Something small enough to carry with me most of the time.
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
> cell phone with a bluetooth headset. Something small enough to
> carry with me most of the time.
-- http://discussion.treocentral.com/showthread.php?t=33796&highlight=thoughts+communicator
Giggle.
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
It all depends on what computing functions you need, doesn't it?
Yes, but at the end of the day the amount of SERIOUS work you can do with a smartphone is QUITE limited by screen size + lack of availability of Real Windows™ applications. (Sure you can try and replace a laptop with your Treo - but not unless you're both very creative and a bit of a masochist.)
now what's so likeable about the Treo? (Well one thing anyway) It features an OS that was always designed for small screens, mobile input and later, one-handed operation. Unlike Windows Mobile it owes very little functionality to desktop OS design. Beyond the UI advantages, though, are the benefits it offers in speed and battery life. Unlike featurephones (which I assume are defined as having closed operating systems) a smartphone gives you choice – a huge variety of apps that are designed with mobility in mind. While this matters little to the consumer masses, there is and always will be people out there who want that choice in their phone. Geeks such as myself, businesses, whoever. So it's not and may never be a huge market; so what? So long as there's money to be made from it...
Again, while this is nice for a SMALL number of people, the limited functionality and tiny sreen size of smartphones means that they automatically will have a small following. As featurephones add "features" that were formally only seen on smartphones, the market for smartphones will quickly dry up. Compare the Samsung A920 to the Samsung i500 and you'll see why traditional smartphones are dead.
I think the future of phones is actually probably going to eventually wind up being more like Star Trek (oh God, I really am a geek...) with a teensy little badge or something similar - earpiece, cufflink, whatever – that you talk through. You'll use a little tablet for everything else.
That future isn't all that far off. In fact, if people were conditioned to using Bluetooth headsets and a manufacturer was willing to eliminate the traditional speaker + microphone from the cellphone's components, it's aleady possible to create a Bluetooth cellphone that could be clipped/pinned to clothing. The main sticking point is that most people aren't yet comfortable giving up traditional cellphone ergonomics. I predict VoIP will revolutionize how people think about the devices they think of as "phones" and will speed acceptance of a wearable cellphone.
But that day is still a long ways off.
I disagree.
And until it arrives, I intend to cut down on the clutter in my pockets. When I leave the house, I only ever need three things: keys, wallet, Treo. I don't really need a full-on mobile PC; there are desktops PCs everywhere I go (literally) and it's hard to keep a tablet in your pocket. It's also a cheaper solution than buying seperate devices that can do all the same things my smartphone can. I'm sure the same is true for a lot of people's lifestyles.
And most people won't need a "full-on" smartphone - upcoming (and current) featurephones perform most of the mobile "computing" needs the Average Joanne has. (Most people will only want to perform viewing/lookup functions with phone-sized devices rather than data entry.)
The smartphone market may eventually be taken over by featurephones that offer all the same things, but all that really means is that the definitions have changed.
I disagree. I think we all really know what we mean when we think of the word "smartphone". It's a data-centric (not voice-centric) device like a Treo that runs an OS with a large number of available standalone (i.e. non-Java, etc.) applications: i.e. Windows Mobile, PalmOS and some Symbian devices. Just like how in the PalmOS world the traditional PDA (tablet form factor) is being superceded by a different class of devices (smartphones), traditional smartphones will be quickly obviated by "FULLfeatureDphones™".
As you said, Palm's window to do some creative things (a 320x480 Treo, for instance) is rapidly closing. But it ain't shut yet.
I disagree. The window was just shut by Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Motorola with their 2006-07 lineup of phones. Palm's tired "strategy" of incremental upgrades and the difficulties Palm had in following the Treo 600 up with a decent new design also leant a hand is shutting and then hermetically sealing that former window of opportunity.
*****************
Oh, and you're not allowed to leave PIC. The mighty freakout forbids it. Thus is the Word.
I'm not leaving PIC. Just no more atricle submissions from TVoR.
TVoR
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
Part of the problem though, is that NONE of these larger devices support cell phone service. Doesn't that seem a bit odd? Like maybe the software/equipment manufacturers are mssing the boat? I'd love a lightweight mini-notebook that I could use as a cell phone with a bluetooth headset. Something small enough to carry with me most of the time.
http://www.mobiletechreview.com/sony_ux180/Sony-Vaio-UX180P.htm
This is the future. Today.
I believe most people that would actually use a device with built-in cellphone radio will probably be techy enough to already be using VoIP. And everyone else would simply prefer maintaining separates: a tiny phone-centric high-speed data-capable cellphone like the Samsung A920 and 4 to 6 inch screened Windows tablet.
TVoR
Long live smartphones (or communicators)
Ergonomically, the Vaio is a delight, and that's something I rarely say (the Treo is the only other device to receive that honor).
The original term Handspring was using to describe the Treo before "smartphone" came into vogue was "communicator". I think in some ways it's still more applicable than 'smartphone'. What is the Treo, really? A communications tool, and it does this job exceedingly well. The touchscreen + exposed keyboard + one handed nav is perfect for quick emails, messages or snippets of web information. The form factor is almost perfectly balanced on the knife-edge between "too small to be usable" and "too big to be used as a phone without looking stupid". It's a handy design, dammit. I think devices in this form factor will always be reasonably popular - at least until the price of carrying a UMPC goes down. The UX180P is $1800!! You're going to need something to carry it in cause it's certainly not going to slide neatly into your pocket, and since you're at that kind of price, some people might wonder if they should just buy a full-fledged laptop instead - and probably for less.
I also point out the rather dismal 3-hour battery life with wi-fi on. (8 hours as an mp3 player is impressive, but who's going to use this beast as an mp3 player?)
It's the future, but technology and price still isn't there yet.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
>> eventually wind up being more like Star Trek (oh God, I really
>> am a geek...) with a teensy little badge or something similar
>> - earpiece, cufflink, whatever – that you talk through. You'll
>> use a little tablet for everything else.
>
> That future isn't all that far off...
Indeed:
RE: Smartphones are DEAD. And so is Palm.
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Is Palm's marriage with WM failing?
The fact is that, the 700w and rumored forthcoming Treo "lenon" or whatever do not measure up competitively in specificatons, design or otherwise with many other WM alternatives. Furthermore the much ballyhooed "Palm experience" nonsense that Palm execs blatherred about when the 700w was launched has also turned out to be nothing substantial. Simply put, in the WM ecosystem, Palm just hasn't made very interesting or competitive devices. Of course, the 700w may be viewed as just an openning volley...but Palm can't make too many mistakes and live to survive it...
IMO, Palm will never be a preeminant WM OEM. There are just too many competitors with too many better designs and price points. The quandry for Palm unfortunately is that the PalmOS frankengarnet platform is dead with the future of ALP clouded and murky. I doubt Palm will ever release a UMTS based frankengranet Treo b/c it would be a huge monumental task...and even if they did it would be a buggy piece of crap. That is the only reason why Palm had to latch onto WM now b/c otherwise they would have no 3G Treo products in the pipeline. But WM won't save Palm as disappointing sales of the 700w show...
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Gaurav
Current devices: Treo 650 + Axim X50v
Device graveyard: Palm Vx, Cassiopeia E100, LG Phenom HPC, Palm M515, Treo 300, Treo 600
Moderator, Treocentral