Access Linux Platform Release Date Slips

Giggle.

Deadlines for development projects are constantly being moved back. Look at Microsoft and CoreCodec.

And as another note.

Cobalt is dead because PalmSource decided to change the direction that it was going 3/4 the way through. Originally Cobalt was to be a media-centric OS, but then PalmSource higher-ups came into a board meeting one day and announced that Cobalt was their smartphone OS.

Cobalt only died because at the last minute PalmSource decided to start all over. Talk to any ex-PalmSource employee.

Ummmm... I have. Yes, we all know about how Cobalt was repositioned several times (next generation -> high end -> cellphones -> everything), but PalmSource had too much work to do with Cobalt even had cellphone support been ignored. If you think your buddies at PalmSource were capable of producing a functional OS on schedule, you've got another "think" coming. The OS hardware demands for Cobalt were also far beyond what was considered reasonable for Palm to use throughout its lineup.

TVoR

I completely agree with you. Question is, who are the winners and order of finish?

My prediction:

1.) RIM - 40%
2.) Windows Mobile - 25%
3.) Nokia - 25%
4.) Palm/Garnet - 10%

Palm III --> Compaq Areo 1550 --> Palm IIIc --> Visor Edge --> Casio EM500 --> Sony T415 --> Compaq 3670 --> Dell Axim x5 Advanced --> Sony SJ20 --> Palm T|E --> HP H1945/T610 --> Dell Axim X30 --> Axim X50v --> Treo 600 --> Palm T|X --> Blackberry 6230 --> Treo 650 --> Blackberry 7100t --> BB 7290 --> Samsung Blackjack

But as I predicted, we now see Linux is a double-edged sword. Unless your company's open source liasons are clever/devious enough to rally the Linux geeks around your company's cause, you'll often end up waiting forever for needed code, or accepting a poor compromise, or having to give up and create your own non-standard branches in the Mobile Linux code. A recipe for disaster in an industry that moves as fast as the cellphone world.

Linux as a cellphone OS is dying of self-inflicted papercuts. Oh, the humanity!

TVoR

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/8399/#119340 :

"Don't be deceived by Smoke & Mirrors (S&M)
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 2/22/2006 10:31:47 PM #

1) NetFrontLinux is VERY much a work in progress, with numerous major decisions (like whether or not MAX will run on X Windows!) yet to be decided. The GUI is not set in stone and this demo should be taken with a Copeland-sized grain of salt.

2) If the launcher Access finalizes on is incapable of presenting/listing ALL apps (PalmOS-native, MAX-native, Java-native and Linux-native) in a single view, this whole platform is rather poorly conceived. Having to manually enter a separate screen to access PalmOS apps through POSE would show how inelegantly PalmOS support has been grafted onto NetFrontLinux. Essentially this would mean the OS represents 4 disintegrated environments under one hastily-assembled roof.

3) PalmOS is DEAD. All that remains is (cynical) support of some PalmOS apps up to PalmOS 5. Cobalt and all the work that went into that have been thrown into the dumpster. PalmLinux (the tragic attempt to port Cobalt to a Linux kernel) and all the work that went into that have also been thrown into the dumpster. What remains of PalmOS is a caricature that makes a mockery of the past 4 years of development. PalmOS is now nothing more than a gimmick, like a mobile TV app or a high megapixel camera. The amazing thing no one seems to have realized is that it will make more sense to use StyleTap Platform to "emulate" PalmOS on a Windows Mobile device than it does to use POSE to emulate PalmOS on a NetFrontLinux device. StyleTap's existence effectively neutralizes any potential competitive advantage for Access of having POSE on NetFrontLinux. $320 million for the rights to POSE, a Chinese Linux phone OS and a few dozen Chinese Linux codemonkeys? W T F was Access thinking???

Benhamou,McVeigh, et. al. fooled 'em all.

TVoR

Copyright 2006
TVoR, Inc."

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http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/8399/#119436 :

"Access will sell off Cobalt, PalmLinux (+ maybe even Garnet)
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 2/24/2006 10:01:41 PM #

PalmSource would have been wise to settle any claims Motorola had out of court. What's $15 MILLION when you're flush with cash like Access is? Not.

I still expect that Access will (either by design or out of desperation) sell off the rights to Cobalt and PalmLinux code within a year or two*.

[*Another BOLD prediction from TVoR™]

Copyright 2006.
TVoR, Inc"

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"You're wrong about Access going bankrupt over the PSRC buy. The math doesn't work out to make that likely. At worst, they do what NTT did with its huge purchase of Verio: write it off as a bad decision.

We'll see soon enough which one of us was right. Remember: Access was not exactly a huge company to begin with. Buying PalmSource was quite a stretch for them, even with DoCoMo's big pockets lurking in the background. I could see DoCoMo stepping in and buying a larger chunk of Access (like Sony did with PalmSource) when things start to get desperate. If the China MobileSoft gamble fails, where does that leave Access? Their NetFront browser is ALREADY facing competition from the likes of Opera, and as mobile hardware becomes more powerful, it will be much easier for less elegant browsers to compete with NetFront. Eventually, an Open Source mobile version of a browser like FireFox will destroy Access' previous business model of being the provider of browsers for mobile devices. It's just a matter of when - not "if" - this will happen."

****************************************************************************************

[Looks like Marty's gonna LOSE betting against my prediction:]

"Thanks for your donation, Marty
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 2/25/2006 2:08:23 PM #

I say Access will be bankrupt (or bought out after financial losses) within 2 years. Secondary bet (for $10): I say Access will end up selling off the rights ("ownership") to one or more of Cobalt/PalmLinux/PalmOS 5 within 18 months.

When you're proven wrong, you'll send the money to the NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund on February 25, 2008. I thank you in advance for your kind donation.

http://tinyurl.com/ksyye"

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Oh My F***ing Gawd:

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/8399/#119493

That said, I think WinMob has boundless potential. MS just need to take a few leaves out of Palm's book and they'd have a killer on their hands. I'm keen to see how far Palm will take their "Palm Experience" on WinMob now that they have the PalmOS back. We could finally have the best of both worlds, if they have the smarts and MS is willing to cede some control.

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650 ---> Crimson Treo 680

Unfortunately for Palm, they're going to get screwed on the second chance to buy the OS rights because, once AGAIN, they will be outbid by a larger suitor with a big bag of cash. They can only look on in horror as their fate is bought and sold before their very eyes.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that Garnet will ultimately become little more than a sandbox environment sitting on top of Windows Mobile. Palm doesn't have the resources to develop their own Linux based OS from the ground up. Even Access hasn't managed to do that, so it's safe to assume that neither can Palm. The only logical course, if they chose to go that route, is to license a pre-build Linux stack from MontaVista or Wind River and slap Garnet on top of that in some fashion. But that could be costly for Palm, and what would be gained from that experiment?

Since Palm is already investing in Windows Mobile, and that is where market is heading...for better or worse, that seems like a logical end. And a product manager at Palm that I spoke with gave me the feeling that Palm is working very closely with Microsoft on Windows Mobile.

PalmOS fans will be living on anti-depressants and alcohol. Happy New Year.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

A la mobile isn't going after the same market as ACCESS, as far as I can see.

Then it's time you bought some specs to improve your vision and look at their intentions in further detail. The phone which will make its debut at CES is being promoted as a QWERTY keyboard smartphone.

Both companies have very similar intentions with their products; ACCESS's product remains in the vapourware category.

What matters most to the end user after the lure of the Microsoft name is having a stable, reliable product with desirable features at the right price.

And by the way, they say it will have a "QUERTY" keyboard, which should be quite a novelty. Either that or it's a rather strange typo, considering the keyboard it was presumably typed from!

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Schlesinger-san

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Out of curiosity what IS your "daily" device?

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P