Signs of a Centro Rally

Posted By: Kris Keilhack Monday, October 29, 2007 11:51:41 AM

Palm CentroTiernan Ray of Barron’s Tech Trader Daily blog has written an article focusing on the encouraging initial sales of Palm’s new Centro smartphone. The strong early sales and other encouraging news from the Palm camp suggest that a true Palm "rally" may be on the horizon.

The Centro, Palm's most recent smartphone, is an attractively-priced Palm OS device that is apparently "doing quite well" as far as Sprint retail store sell-through (a crucial figure when determining initial handset sales performance) according to a Pacific Crest analyst quoted in the article. The $99 Centro (after rebates & 2yr-contract) has not compromised the sales of the older yet higher-priced Treo 755p as much as some industry pundits had speculated.

The article goes on to quote "Our retail sell-through checks for the first weeks of availability indicate solid sell-through. We also believe that Centro cannibalization of the higher-ASP Treo is around 30%, versus our previous expectation of 50%". 


Furthermore, the article goes onto paint an additional rosy picture for Palm’s future product offerings, suggesting that Jon Rubinstein is going to have major involvement in the development of future Palm products. While the lean days of 2007 for Palm’s product lineup appear likely to continue into at least the first half of 2008, this latest report from Barron’s offers some encouraging signs that the new regime at Palm is finally taking the steps necessary to address both the consumer and enterprise markets with differentiated, compelling products running both Windows Mobile and the next-gen Linux successor to OS Garnet.

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Another 'buy now' indicator

TooMuch @ 10/29/2007 3:21:38 PM # Q
Palm is a good "buy now" stock. The plunge has happened and new technology development is underway. Now this new market segment growth news on Centro...

RE: Another 'buy now' indicator
rmhurdman @ 10/29/2007 5:09:18 PM # Q
Yeah, buy now 'cause the guys at Barron's are selling.

RE: Another 'buy now' indicator
TooMuch @ 10/29/2007 6:13:32 PM # Q
"Yeah, buy now 'cause the guys at Barron's are selling."

Wrong. If you bought at the end of last week when you should have, you would have made 7% today ALONE. You have a predisposition that is blocking your objectivity to the upside potential. Palm IS poised for a buy that's why people BOUGHT TODAY.

RE: Another 'buy now' indicator
SeldomVisitor @ 10/29/2007 7:07:58 PM # Q
I think you're confusing yesterday with today.

RE: Another 'buy now' indicator
TooMuch @ 10/29/2007 8:34:50 PM # Q
SV, you are right. I was thinking "week" but said "today."

RE: Another 'buy now' indicator
LiveFaith @ 10/31/2007 1:37:23 AM # Q
Some thots ...

Only 2 tiny obstacles stand in the way of you becoming exorbitantly wealthy from the Stock Market: #1 When to buy #2 When to sell

As a wise man once said ... "I am not nearly as concerned about my return on investment as I am that my investment returns".

As the great Peter Lynch said ... "Don't be to confident. It can go to zero".

As the wizard Jeff Hawkins said ... "This is the greatest product (Foleo) that I've worked on yet".

As the mogul Ed Colligan said ... "Apple is not just going to walk into the phone business".

As the visionary David Nagel proclaimed ... "Cobalt will ship by the first of the year".

As the Lord Jesus once said ... "The blind lead the blind and both fall into the ditch".

Good luck out there.

Pat Horne

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Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo

mikecane @ 10/29/2007 3:42:26 PM # Q
Eee User blog has an Eee in hand. TONS of text and photos. Go see.

http://www.eeeuser.com/

Meanwhile, at Palm HQ, Hawkins loses hair... by manual removal!

BTW: Resign, Colligan!

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
xpan @ 10/29/2007 5:13:51 PM # Q
hey mikecane guy, what happened to your blog?

Any sign of mikecane's blog v2 on the horizon?



---
"home is where my computer is..."

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
rmhurdman @ 10/29/2007 5:14:00 PM # Q
The EeePC may have trouble replacing the PDA, because it's not pocketable (but neither was the Foleo). On the other hand, it runs a full-blown OS (even if it uses an "Easy" interface). The value-for-money seems to be huge. Preliminary reports say that it's really tiny (in a good way) and fits easily in a shoulder bag or backpack, without adding much weight. I think it'll be everything that a LifeDrive should have been (+ keyboard). Who needs Palm-On-Linux when you can have Linux on an Intel processor? No wonder Palm is focusing on smartphones, despite the high competition.

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
vorlon @ 10/29/2007 7:24:22 PM # Q
>hey mikecane guy, what happened to your blog?

http://www.geardiary.com/2007/10/19/just-one-of-those-days/

Oh, it was POSTED by Mike, the guy must have been TVoR...

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
twrock @ 10/30/2007 1:15:33 AM # Q
I'm still thinking the Eee will only really be the device I want when it has the form factor of the Foleo: 10 inch screen and a true full sized keyboard. 16 gb storage flash and a trackpoint (vs. touchpad) would be really good too. Unfortunately, I don't think the full sized keyboard is ever going to be there, and the 10 inch screen and 16 gb flash is going to raise the price way to much to make it a truly economical buy. A 10 inch screen is also going to put a lot more demand on the battery. It's close, but no cigar.


Thinking about Vista? Think again: http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt
Want an alternative? Try this: http://www.ubuntu.com/ or http://www.mepis.org/
RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
mikecane @ 10/30/2007 1:58:46 PM # Q
>>>Any sign of mikecane's blog v2 on the horizon?

The horizon keeps pulling away from me, but yeah...

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
LiveFaith @ 10/31/2007 1:39:15 AM # Q
"Oh, it was POSTED by Mike, the guy must have been TVoR..."

Hehe.

Pat Horne

RE: Weep, Palm, Weep for your Foleo
mikecane @ 10/31/2007 3:33:52 PM # Q
>>>Oh, it was POSTED by Mike,

Entertain us with your weak reading skills again sometime.

It was not POSTED by me. I sent it to Judie in an email and SHE posted it.

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Palm will live again?

cstamper @ 10/29/2007 7:38:19 PM # Q
Maybe its crazy to suggest, but think it's possible? Could palm again be *the* company for pdas, smartphones?

Maybe they even could make a decent pda?

Bad place to ask, I know. But I hope...

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$99 = Low Margins/Low ASP/Commodity Hell

Gekko @ 10/29/2007 9:58:03 PM # Q

"You are headed for commodity hell if you don’t have services." - Lou Gerstner

"Chasing revenue in a commodity business is really dumb." - Lou Gerstner



RE: $399 = High Margins/High ASP/Commodity Heaven
vorlon @ 10/30/2007 7:00:50 AM # Q
First of all, Centro is not 99 bucks, it's 399. It's called carrier subsidies.

"Lou Gerstner is really dumb" - IBM's clients and employees after Lou killed OS/2 because it could have only 10 percent market share (something Steve Jobs would kill for).

"Nokia’s average selling price in the third quarter 2007 was EUR 82, down from EUR 93 in the third quarter 2006 and down from EUR 90 in the second quarter 2007. The lower year on year and sequential ASP in the third quarter 2007 was primarily the result of a significantly higher proportion of entry level device sales, especially in the under EUR 30 category where industry growth has been very strong and where Nokia has
the leading market share. Nokia’s margins were strong in entry-level devices (including the under EUR 30 category) in the third quarter 2007."

Maybe Nokia will hire Lou to tell them how business must be run. HA!

RE: $99 = Low Margins/Low ASP/Commodity Hell
jca666us @ 10/30/2007 8:14:22 AM # Q
And at $399 centro is overpriced!
RE: $99 = Low Margins/Low ASP/Commodity Hell
SeldomVisitor @ 10/30/2007 8:34:37 AM # Q
> ...First of all, Centro is not 99 bucks, it's 399. It's called
> carrier subsidies...

Hmmm...more likely called "rebates in the queue".

The Piper =will= be paid.

RE: $99 = Low Margins/Low ASP/Commodity Hell
AdamaDBrown @ 10/30/2007 12:33:16 PM # Q
To be fair, Nokia has the benefit of absolutely massive production and distribution. They can get the parts cheap, build cheap, and sell cheap, while still making a profit. Smaller companies like Palm don't get those kinds of economies of scale. Commoditization is a big problem when, like Palm, you rely on your high margins to make yourself profitable.

RE: $99 = Low Margins/Low ASP/Commodity Hell
mikecane @ 10/30/2007 2:02:32 PM # Q
The thing about commodities is that anyone can do them. And while I think a PDA's *value* is now just $50-$100, no one can knock out a PDA with the (now-creaking and near-death) Zen of Palm. Palm just needs to realize they can't get Lexus pricing in a world where a Lexus is now a $400 Asus Eee.

It's interesting that the new hp/Compaq PDAs have been delayed.

Reply to this comment

Can we trust these guys?

RussianGuy @ 10/30/2007 11:40:12 AM # Q
Certainly does not look like a top seller if you look at Amazon charts

Right now Centro is #27 in the smartphone category

For comparison, 750 was #2 in charts when it started, and 680 at #8

New Palm OS device by end 2008

RE: Can we trust these guys?
TooMuch @ 10/30/2007 11:53:31 AM # Q
Many Sprint stores in in my city (just 350,000) were sold out quickly. One manager told me, "It's the fastest seller we have right now." New shipments expected this week.

RE: Can we trust these guys?
SeldomVisitor @ 10/30/2007 11:54:28 AM # Q
You can never trust a "blog".

Or anyone in the aptly-named Me-Too Media, for that matter.

RE: Can we trust these guys?
craigdts @ 10/30/2007 1:31:33 PM # Q
Don't forget the 2 or 3 downgrades of Palm stock that have come out during the same period - citing a less rosy view of palm's future - even with a successful centro.

Can't wait to see how palm spins the centro in the next CC. "Our treo sales remain robust, and we have added a new product category in the Centro that is doing well." Hmmm . . . btw what are they gonna do with all Sprints 755ps?

RE: Can we trust these guys?
cstamper @ 10/30/2007 4:15:36 PM # Q
Didn't someone, maybe SV or freak, say something recently about $30 centros on amazon? Is that true?
RE: Can we trust these guys?
SeldomVisitor @ 10/30/2007 5:20:03 PM # Q
Yes, it's true.

RE: Can we trust these guys?
TooMuch @ 10/30/2007 5:56:11 PM # Q
It's true with rebates from Sprint and "your agreement that for the 181-day period following such activation you will: (1) pay your balance due to Sprint each month and otherwise maintain your account in good standing; (2) not disconnect this Sprint line of service; (3) not transfer this equipment to another Sprint line of service; (4) not change your Sprint service rate plan to a lower monthly service rate--this includes canceling or removing required PDA, BlackBerry, or smartphone features after your product has shipped; (5) not use this line of service to replace an existing account with Sprint. If these conditions are not met, you hereby authorize Amazon.com to charge your credit card $250 as reimbursement of this equipment discount without need for further approval."

RE: Can we trust these guys?
SeldomVisitor @ 10/30/2007 7:09:53 PM # Q
Is there any difference in that and a standard Sprint contract?

RE: Can we trust these guys?
cstamper @ 10/31/2007 10:05:10 AM # Q
Thnx 4 the info!

Those carriers!!! I thought it'd make a nice dev tool/toy. Too bad...

Die, smartphones, die!

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