Post-Leak Palm Rumor Analysis

After this latest round of Palm rumors and leaks, we can now paint a fairly accurate of Palm's product roadmap for the remainder of the year. With the impending arrival of a Palm OS GSM Palm Centro, the series of CDMA Treo 800w rumors, and now these two new Drucker and Wanda semi-confirmations, Palm's 2008 plans are looking a bit brighter than some had previously feared.

Treo 800wAs expected, Palm's remaining Garnet-based devices are going to continue to target consumers at lower price points while the aging OS is slowly phased out on mainstream devices. I would not be surprised to see Palm actually split their smartphone line down the middle and make "Treo" synonymous with Windows Mobile handsets, while "Centro" becomes the consumer-oriented line running both Garnet now and eventually Palm OS II. This would actually disappoint (but not surprise) me, as Palm has a great deal of brand equity and good faith built into the "Treo" brand, secondly only to "Palm Pilot" in being branded into the general public's consciousness.

Meanwhile, an onslaught of higher-end "me too" Windows Mobile devices is expected to keep Palm in contention until the new Linux-based Palm OS II is ready to appear on shipping devices in 2009. While these devices lack many of the tasty "secret sauce" we expect from Palm (Palm software enhancements, top mounted ring/vibrate switch, "smile" keyboards etc.) features such as wi-fi, GPS, and reasonable quality digital cameras are key to Palm being able to stave off the increasingly fierce competition from other WM licensees as well as Apple, RIM, and Nokia.

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Palm OS II, huh?

SeldomVisitor @ 1/8/2008 1:50:27 PM # Q
Wanna bet?

[unless, of course, you're calling a NEW Linux OS out of PALM "Palm OS II" without attempting to suggest that "Palm OS" and "Palm OS II" are binary compatible (or even recompiled-binary compatible)]


RE: Palm OS II, huh?
DarthRepublican @ 1/9/2008 3:32:08 AM # Q
Why wouldn't Palm OS II or whatever Palm winds up calling it be compatible with older PalmOS apps? Palm has everything it needs to build in compatibility, a perpetual license to Garnet and the PACE emulator which AFAICT is what really runs most PalmOS apps even now under Garnet. I suppose POSII would break applications which dig themselves too deeply into the OS in much the same way that Garnet broke Hackmaster hacks which were so popular under PalmOS 2, 3, and 4.x but the vast majority of PalmOS apps continued to run on the new PalmOS 5.x. Hell at this point, the main -- some would say the only -- reason to use PalmOS is because of all the third-party software. PalmOS will be compatible with Garnet because it has to be for Palm to survive.

RE: Palm OS II, huh?
SeldomVisitor @ 1/9/2008 7:06:52 AM # Q
> Why wouldn't Palm OS II or whatever Palm winds up calling it be
> compatible with older PalmOS apps? ...

Because it's time for PALM to move on.

I think at BEST what PALM will have is some third-party application/emulator, not their own. That way they don't have to support it.

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Lol! I like that graphic!

SeldomVisitor @ 1/8/2008 1:52:56 PM # Q
-- http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2008/01/08/nokia-s60-touch-ui-patent-includes-3d-touchless-control/

Why does my Palm III look totally like that?

['course, I haven't looked at my Palm II in probably a year so could be wrong about what it looks like...]

RE: Lol! I like that graphic!
DarthRepublican @ 1/9/2008 3:20:28 AM # Q
It looks a little more like a thick Palm V to me but yeah, it does look like a sketch of an old Palm device.

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It's the Palm V or Vx

adamsmark @ 1/8/2008 2:54:59 PM # Q
It was a fine device.

"I believe in the atomic bomb."

Blogging at http://agabus.com">Agabus.com.

Palm V > Vx > Clie Peg T615C > T3 > Clie TH55 > T3 > Treo 650 > Treo 700p & T3!

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Don't hold breath for Foleo II

mikecane @ 1/8/2008 4:11:09 PM # Q
Instead, look at this and take a deep breath:

Everex Cloudbook: The Asus EeePC Killer?
http://tinyurl.com/35x7g4

Hey, Colligan! Hey, Hawkins!

YOU SEE THAT PRICE?!?!!?

Suck on it!

RE: Don't hold breath for Foleo II
theog @ 1/8/2008 4:32:16 PM # Q
These small and cheap notebooks are more or less just cheap notebooks that happen to be small.

Vote for John Kerry... best man for the job.
RE: Don't hold breath for Foleo II
SeldomVisitor @ 1/8/2008 4:44:50 PM # Q
Indeed - instead of just expensive notebooks that happen to be small.


RE: Don't hold breath for Foleo II
JonAcheson @ 1/9/2008 2:39:29 PM # Q
I would gladly pay $100 more for the Foleo's screen, instead of the 800x400 screen on that laptop.

This has been a common refrain in comments on the EEEpc as well.

Also, let's see hard info on weight and battery life. That thing has a hard drive, which is going to suck up a lot of power.

Looking back in hindsight, what was mainly wrong with the Foleo was that it was tied to a smartphone, and didn't have enough horsepower for YouTube.

Still, I think Palm desperately needs to focus on Palm OS II, as it is already years too late.

"All opinions posted are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled."

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Bad Position

theog @ 1/8/2008 4:43:58 PM # Q
Palm is in a bad position in regards to "Palm OS II." Palm HAS to get it right out the door... Palm must have an "Apple" moment (or a Palm-of-old moment).

The product line is about what I thought... ride the way of Windows, put OS 5 on cheap devices (or maybe one last high-end device) and call that a year. Hope and pray HTC does not come out with the ultimate "Treo Killer."

Will be interesting to see Palm this time next year. I notice treocentral pushing people to their winmob site... hedging their bets, I guess. :-)

Vote for John Kerry... best man for the job.

RE: Bad Position
SeldomVisitor @ 1/8/2008 4:49:40 PM # Q
> ...I notice treocentral pushing people to their winmob site...

What I find surprising - and have commented on probably more than once - is how well PiC hides the fact that they have current-day-relevant sister sites as well!

RE: Bad Position
theog @ 1/8/2008 5:19:20 PM # Q
Which sites? I know of a couple... not a bunch of info on them... Palm is not doing much.

I did find another site in the links section, but it was not updated that much.... kinda boring when you have a general phone site and have to go against the mobile section of engadget.com. Or you don't have fresh content.

Of course, I don't know all the sites that ryan owns, so who knows if he actually spends all his time on the site that has 20,000 people everyday.

Vote for John Kerry... best man for the job.

RE: Bad Position
Ryan @ 1/8/2008 5:38:30 PM # Q
I still spend a vast majority of my time working on PIC, it's a lot of work and I still get more traffic in a couple hours here than I would on all my other sites combined in a month.

My mobilitybeat.com site was more of an experiment than a whole new site for me. I haven't been able to update it much lately because of recent traveling but it should pick up again soon. I had hoped it would be more community driven as anyone can submit news articles and posts there are voted on by the readers.

PhoneFavs.com is my current project that I am most excited about as that is a mobile portal and surfing tool that works well on all mobile devices.

RE: Bad Position
LiveFaith @ 1/8/2008 6:07:19 PM # Q
That's good to hear Ryan. I spend 1-2 hours each morning clicking the browser refresh button on the PIC homepage. Good to see it's helping. :-D

Pat Horne
RE: Bad Position
freakout @ 1/8/2008 6:09:20 PM # Q
^^ And it has the best mobile search page, to boot.
RE: Bad Position
VampireLestat @ 1/8/2008 7:04:04 PM # Q
My top 5 sites are:

1. Google.ca / Hotmail
2. CNN.com
3. DrudgeReport.com
4. Palminfocenter.com
5. Radio-canada.ca

Ryan, do not change your format. It works, don't fix it.
- 1src is killing itself because they require accounts just to read articles.
- palmaddicts is ok but the article scroll off too quickly and forums are not fun.
- Brighthand has an ever improving news section which is great but the forums.. bah.. the mods moving posts around and the dozens of forums are too spread thin.

PIC is
- clean
- simple
- interesting Palm news
- fun, lively posters
- its a great place to complain, vent, praise and submit ideas to improve.
- loads fast


1src going down with the POS ship
Surur @ 1/9/2008 6:09:28 AM # Q
1src has decided to go down with the PalmOS ship. They refuse to carry content from the other OS which Palm supports, which results in them having more podcasts than actual articles on their front page. I think they made their articles registration only (it did not use to be that way) to make it easier to ban people from using their site. They are committing slow suicide by burying their heads in the sand.

I dont doubt they will change their policy soon.

RE: Bad Position
PacManFoo @ 1/9/2008 9:28:49 AM # Q
I'd have to disagree regarding 1src. There PDA news by hour links to articles on all kinds of tech new and their Podcasts talk of things palm related including windows mobile on the palm. Guess I don't understand what other platforms your talking about. I can tell you from using their site as well that the forums are much more active then PIC's.

PDA's Past and Present:
Palm TX (Number 2)
Palm - IIIxe, Vx, M500, M505, Tungsten T, TX
Handspring - Edge, Platinum, Deluxe
Sony - SJ22
Casio-EM500
Apple - MP110, MP2000, MP2100
RE: Bad Position
Surur @ 1/9/2008 10:33:45 AM # Q
As Joel said many years ago now:

The 700w is news but the device is Windows Media-powered not Palm-powered. We would go in circles about discussing the semantics of "Palm-powered" but we feel that 1src's "on topic" and front page news areas will continue to be PalmOS-related.

http://www.1src.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97307&page=1&pp=15

Even POS Treo's are in general discouraged there. They are a site dedicated to a dying niche (PalmOS PDA's).

RE: Bad Position
VampireLestat @ 1/9/2008 11:26:51 AM # Q
PacMaN,

all BS.

Absolutely nothing wrong with have a site dedicated to Palm OS and both PDAs and more phone centric devices. Their problem is solely the registration policy.

If anything, the weakness of PIC is that it doesnt have a seperate site for WM.

When POS II comes out, we will see who thrives.

RE: Bad Position
PacManFoo @ 1/9/2008 11:27:43 AM # Q
See, I just don't see that. The forums perhaps are a majority PDA users but the news and podcasts rarely even discuss any devices other then Treos. I find it nice to have a place to talk about the TX. It maybe a dying niche market as you say but there are still many users of these devices that enjoy discussing them. The TX community on that site has come out with some awesome applications that keep me enjoying my TX.

PDA's Past and Present:
Palm TX (Number 2)
Palm - IIIxe, Vx, M500, M505, Tungsten T, TX
Handspring - Edge, Platinum, Deluxe
Sony - SJ22
Casio-EM500
Apple - MP110, MP2000, MP2100
RE: Bad Position
mikecane @ 1/9/2008 11:41:05 AM # Q
>>>When POS II comes out, we will see who thrives.

Still believe in Santa and the Easter Bunny too, I guess...

RE: Bad Position
VampireLestat @ 1/9/2008 11:55:06 AM # Q
TX and Centro are both mobile devices. Each one has areas of specialization. Each have a role. I own both a TX (and T5) and 680; and I use them both heavily, in different areas of my life. Both phone centric and less phone centric mobil devices have a very prosperous and long futur ahead of them (likely endless).

My concern with 1src is that you HAVE to register just to read articles. That discourages newcomes and even old times alike when the browser's cache is emptied and you have to log in.

As for WM vs POS site content, same principles apply as to why Palm Inc. should not have gone down that route in the first place. They are 2 different worlds and resources are spead thin. A mobile device and its OS is complicated enough as it is and fans have to invest lots of time to master a software base. So who the hell wants the annoyance of having the added task of doing a triage to avoid WM content and see its own OS preferred articles look "shelf space"?

Problem here is that many people think Palm OS is dead. I know its fundamentals are good and they are 1 major update away from making everyone change their tune about the OS' fate.

And if people REALLY have to see both the POS and WM world just to be sure they made the right choice, let them bookmark 2 sites; god forbid that is so difficult to do.

I am not in favor of hybrid sites when it comes to software and hardware coverage of a mobile plateform and OS economy. Hybrid sites are a sign of panic, fear and only serve to transition and ultimately destroy a given platform.

If Palm Inc and webmasters want a unique product that results in a strong fan base and recurring excitement and development, they have to pick. If they don't, when Palm OS II is released, another site will be dedicated to it and fans will flock there. Change sometimes comes swiftly, and once you lose momentum, its hard to get it back.


RE: Bad Position
VampireLestat @ 1/9/2008 12:19:13 PM # Q
mikecane,

Don't be silly, unlike the Easter Bunny, everyone knows Santa exists.
Good one.

Reply to this comment

Goodness me!

SeldomVisitor @ 2/10/2008 2:44:39 PM # Q
http://www.sonyericsson.com/x1/default.aspx?cc=GB&lc=en&lc=en&cc=US

Here, now, not mid-2009.

How's PALM gonna squeeze in edgewise, huh?

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