Nagel Keynote Opens The PalmSource Conference
February 10th, 2004, San Jose, California. The annual PalmSource developer conference kicked off with a keynote speech from David Nagel, CEO of PalmSource. Read on for PalmInfocenter's coverage of the opening keynote and Nagel's remarks on the current state of affairs in the Palm Economy.
The 2004 PalmSource developer conference kicked off with a keynote speech from David Nagel, CEO of PalmSource. It began with a video touting the many diverse ways that people use and incorporate Palm-powered devices into their lives, showing the success and capabilities of Palm OS smartphones, a Mars clock application programmed and compiled on an m505, footage of the Tapwave Zodiac, examples of how doctors are using Palm-powered handhelds to improve patient care and even clips of an inventor that built an automated Ping Pong machine controlled with a Kyocera smartphone.
Nagel then explained how PalmSource is at the forefront of an industry amidst great change. He stressed how the move to the next generation Palm OS is an enormously important and exciting transition, just as big as the introduction of the original Pilot. "Palm OS 6 Cobalt is the most important piece of software [PalmSource has] ever delivered, a revolutionary OS that will have as big an impact as the original Palm OS," said Nagel.
A recap of PalmSource highlights of 2003 followed, including the celebrated landmark of 30 million Palm OS devices sold, the platform reaching 20,000 third party commercial applications (far more than any other platform), the emergence of more converged devices, the spinoff from Palm Inc and opening as an independent, publicly traded company on the Nasdaq.
The PalmSource chief then looked back at some of the high tech trends that emerged over the course of 2003, such as smartphones gaining mainstream acceptance, digital camera sales surpassing film cameras, Bluetooth beginning to reach critical mass, and the success of Apple's iPod and the iTunes service.
Nagel felt that 2003 was a watershed year for PalmSource. Licensees cranked out an amazing array of innovative products, many of which PalmSource never even envisioned possible when Palm OS 5 was on the drawing board, such as the Zodiac and Garmin iQue products. He stressed that unlike other platforms, there is an amazing diversity of Palm-powered devices in both software and hardware. Instead of producing cloned devices or white box PDA's, PalmSource encourages licensees to push the envelope, giving OEMs the flexibility do come up with innovative designs. The end result is the amazing device creativity that drives the industry.
Nagel went on to talk about how the Treo 600, which he uses himself, has become the poster child of the smartphone industry, winning tons of awards and receiving multitudes of praise. He said that the Treo 600 has been the most popular device to date with the European phone carrier Orange, and has generated the highest average revenue per user (ARPU) than any other smartphone.
In 10 years time, Nagel said, it will be hard to imaging anyone not owning a smartphone. He understandably sees enormous potential for growth as the smart mobile device market segments. He thinks there will be an explosion of innovation in the next 5 years, citing new form factors, screen resolutions, and different different types of displays.
He then talked on how the Palm OS ready program has enabled licensees to create products more quickly and bring new devices and technologies to market quicker. He highlighted the silicon partners of TI, Motorola and Intel and their newest partner NVidia. He touched on the growing number of Palm OS licenses and how some will bring out products based on concepts never seen before.
The much-anticipated Cobalt was next on the agenda. He told the developer audience that more than 80% of the Palm OS codebase was rewritten for Cobalt, while at the same time maintaining compatibility with previous versions of the Palm OS. The audience was then treated to a quick demo of Cobalt, showcasing the new graphics technologies, the new command bar and the new built-in media player that does both audio and real time video. Nagel left most of the talk about Garnet and Cobalt for Larry Slotnick's keynote, stay tuned for a more in-depth news on Cobalt and Garnet in an upcoming article.
Nagel went on to talk about the current competitive landscape. He brought up the example of Microsoft's approach, of having three separate platforms for mobile devices, all of which are incompatible, with the net result being that there aren't many applications available for any of them. He felt the same issue plagued Symbian, as it too has a common core but different interfaces, making apps incompatible across devices. He felt that Nokia's recent move to take control of Symbain will be a bonus for PalmSouce as current licensees of Symbian will be much less happy about licensing an OS from their biggest competitor.
Nagel wrapped up his talk by reiterating that PalmSource and the Palm economy is in transition. The Palm-powered world is moving from a pioneering industry to an even bigger industry. With the latest released of Palm OS Cobalt and Garnet, PalmSource is poised to take advantage of and power the the next generation of smart mobile devices.
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RE: What about Linux?
-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T616
RE: What about Linux?
RE: What about Linux?
Do you have any references to support these claims? I find this hard to believe. I can see Linux as occupying a large portion of the server market, but not on the desktop.
Jim
RE: What about Linux?
And you would be right. Linux as a desktop OS is for geeks only right now. Windows and Mac are for real people. And Windows only is for real business users. It comes down to standardization and ease of use. Two concepts the Linux dreamers seem incapable of grasping.
It's just too big.
RE: What about Linux?
Yes, because geeks aren't real people. :rolleyes:
-- jws
(Palm m100 > Palm IIIc > Oregon Scientific Osaris > Palm m125 > Sony CLIE SJ22 > Palm Tungsten|E)
RE: What about Linux?
> geeks only right now. Windows and Mac are for real
> people
Hey, have you looked outside your frontiers? There's a whole world there! I know FAR more people running Linux on a desktop than I do using Macs -- of course, they are way less numerous than Windows users, that is true, but it is clear that Macs are sadly a dying platform.
As for platforms other than PC's, there are as many mobile-phone users in China right now as there are inhabitants in the US. And China wants Linux on its smartphones and desktops. Oh, and Japan does too -- just check DoCoMo ... It's not just the evil communists that want to rain on Microsoft's and PalmOne's sad parade.
Smartphones will prevail, and PDAs will disappear: And Linux has a GOOD opportunity to get traction in that arena; it is fast, it is powerful, it can be made small, and it is free, as in freedom and as in beer.
RE: What about Linux?
Mac being the de facto standard in industrial design and publishing I do not see why you call it a dying platform. Besides, if someone is going to lose share to Linux it is going to be Microsoft and that is going to be for just one reason: If you have apple with say a 10% share and Microsoft with a 90% and you want Linux or unix or Palm for PC or Simbian for PC to gain some market which company's share will you focs on?
____________________________________________
Former Tapwave's Helix fan, now a T|T3 fan.
RE: What about Linux?
The Mac platform is by no means dying at all, it's in fact starting to pick up steam again, breaking out of it's traditional niche of graphic design and publishing into new fields like super computing, bio tech, film and TV production, heck even the games scene is really starting to pick up. Why? Mac OS X is everything Linux has been trying to be for years - a stable, good looking OS with main stream application support which is powerful enough for hard core geeks and easy enough to use for your granny. The only reason Apple hasn't really doubled it's market share in the last few years has been the fault of Motorola screwing up the G4 and the poor economy putting people off of higher priced purchases. Since we now have super fast chips from IBM all we need is a better economy for a boom in Mac sales imo.
--
Visor Deluxe > iPod > Clie SJ33 > Zire 71 > ?
RE: What about Linux?
Except that Apple has nowhere near 10% marketshare. Currently it is around a mere 3%, and hasn't been above 5% in years.
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Contributing Editor, Digital Media Thoughts
Editor, Pocketfactory.com
RE: What about Linux?
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped PDA with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$500
RE: What about Linux?
Desktop Linux may take a few more years to mature, but right now I am seeing it everywhere. Even 60 year old grandmothers are using them on 100Mhz old PCs.
RE: What about Linux?
http://slashdot.org/articles/04/02/13/2134234.shtml?tid=106&tid=107&tid=185&tid=187
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/bw/20040213/bs_bw/b3871118mz063
This is the beauty - having alternatives & conscious choice.
RE: What about Linux?
Actually, as I understand it, those numbers touted by the Linux camp are for new computer purchases, an area where Apple has been abysmal now for the past decade or so (>3%). The total installed base of Macs is probably significantly higher, at least for now. But a valid point, nonetheless.
Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
- smartphones are nowhere near "gaining mainstream acceptance"
- Bluetooth may be shipping in a lot of hardware, but I don't think a lot of people are actually USING it for anything. Reminds me of IR with Palms and laptops.
- iPod is a slick industrial design, but I expect iTunes to implode soon enough. The idea seems sound until you realize that everyone wants something for nothing. Record companies are rethinking the whole downloadable music paradigm and still are experimenting with a few new formats. I think they'd be better off just selling "value-added" CDs with features like extra discs with DVD of videos, stickers, mail-in trinkets and let users make their own MP3s after they've bought the CDs. You won't ever change people's expectation that MP3s should be free.
These keynote speeches are always such a pile of BS.
It's just too big.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Here's a suggestion - take your best two handles, The Ugly Truth and face icon, and combine them into one great super-handle that fits you to a T - The Ugly Face.
-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T616
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Who are you... Don "The Femme" Cherry?
I'll bet you've never dropped yer gloves, buddy.
;-)
It's just too big.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Just enjoy the article...
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
1.) Notwithstanding the fact that your comments regarding apple´s success may be right or wrong, please bear in mind that Nagel said was that in 2003 the iPod and iTunes were a huge success. I think that you can not say much about that because the 20+ iPod wannabes and the 10+ iTunes wannabe that appeared from companies as Rio, Creative, Gateway, Dell, Real Networks among others may prove you wrong. As a matter of fact, HP has licensed iPod and iTunes, that "is just too big".
2.) About the Bluetooth comment, from what I've heard this technology is not very popular in the US but it sure is in Europe. Probably your comment is based on an US bias.
3.) About the smartphone issue, I have no idea whatsoever.
____________________________________________
Former Tapwave's Helix fan, now a T|T3 fan.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
A year ago I thought '03 would be a watershed year for Smartphones. Aside from the Treo 600, I haven't seen *anything* that excites me to any great deal (and the 600 still has room for improvement but it's a helluva good step in the right direction).
I think that a huge hurdle for smartphone acceptance is cost. Your average joe 6-pack consumer will go into his carrier's store with an expired contract. He can re-up for 2 years and get a new flashy T730 or a Kyocera slider or something similarly hip. They have color screens, polyphonic ringers, possibly even a built-in camera (I mean the "free w/ 2 year commitment" phone deals). How on earth can someone like that be persuaded to drop $300-$400 on a Smartphone that might be "harder to use & more likely to break" (in their opinion) than their subsidized freebie that does "more or less the same stuff" (out of the box, they are actually pretty right with that assertion.
I think that as long as the sheer volumes of standard cell handsets being sold continue to refelct a fairly decent features:price ratio, smartphones will at best achieve maybe......20% market penetration amongst the techie/affluent/gee-whiz cell phone crowd? And you'll still have the die-hard early adopters who would rather wield something like a T68 & a T3 and alternate their equipment upgrades (new PDA this year, new cel the next etc).
Rant:
Finally, like :-), I don't see what's so spectacular over Apple's online store, aside from ease of use and decent availability. Who cares if you can download Christina & Britney online? They'r in every new music section and ever used bin in America. What I want to see is a SERIOUS commitment by the labels to drop the price of all new releases-$9.99 would be nice-and make serious inroads to archiving and offerng online all deleted backatalog albums that are no longer in print. As a fan of non-mainstream acts (or once mainstream acts that are no longer "relevant" in the eyes of their labels), it's important that these bodies of work, no matter the lack of mainstream appeal, be preserved for collectors & future generations of fans. In addition to that, there is still a lot of material out there, especially old 7" & 12" singles and whatnot, that has never been released on CD and is likely never to be. Imagine someone like Arista or Warner Bros. opening an online museum, offerng these moldy old tracks for, say, less than $1 apiece. They'd still get *something* for these old tunes (think along the lines of a 25 year old Flock of Seagulls b-side)which is more than you can say for someone buying a used CD off of E-Bay or a used music retailer.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Agreed. I like the interface, but the 'iPod or nothing' attitude for mobile devices irks me. At least their support could at least respond... guess I'll archive their confirmation email for laughs.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Good one, Bosco! You had me ROTFL... Like hoodoo did for his 32K x 32K post the other day, you deserve some kind of award.
________________________________
M100==>M500==>T|T==>T|T2==> ?
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
--
Visor Deluxe > iPod > Clie SJ33 > Zire 71 > ?
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
T3=>T610
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
- This software lets you rip, sort, buy, burn and tag your songs, it's very stable (even on a PC), has no ads and did I mention IT IS FREE? Is there any other with all this features for such a "reasonable" price?
- The iTunes store which is currently available only in the US was the first way to legally obtain the music you want for an affordable price! No wonder why they escalated the digital music market in less than a year.
- Maybe the "iPod only" idea is supported on the fact that this software is free. If they are not charging you for it, it is fair to say that they can use it as a value added for their hardware. It is the same thing that Microsoft did with their windows media audio (wma) format.
____________________________________________
Former Tapwave's Helix fan, now a T|T3 fan.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
But it is true that something like the T630 probably needs just a tad more memory and a screen a bit larger in order to run something like Linux+Qtopia (which will fit fine in 5M Flash and 8M RAM, including PIM and MicroJava) and then the gap will close a lot. I don't expect waiting a lot for this to happen.
You can get a T630 for about 130¤ (low-end Zire terrain) from Vodafone. I'm sure that next year, the device I'm talking about will be there at that price, and the war will heat up.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
Bluetooth is underrated. I use it all the time from my first bluetooth phone T39m paired with a handset to controlling my PC with my T3 with PalmVNC.
---
Generic Casio > Psion 5> Palm Vx > m505 > Sony N770C > T625C > NR70V > Toshiba e310 > T/T > HP h2210 > T/T3
StarTac > Ericsson T28m > T39m > T68m > T610 > T630
Next PDA/Phone: T/T4 or VGA PPC or Treo 610/S-E T650
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
2.) About the Bluetooth comment, from what I've heard this technology is not very popular in the US but it sure is in Europe. Probably your comment is based on an US bias.
3.) About the smartphone issue, I have no idea whatsoever.
1) iPod is a nice piece of industrial design Apple had an outside shop create. No more, no less. It's done well because of looks + timing - not because it's a particularly brilliant piece of engineering.
2) Correct.
3) Smartphones aren't even a blip on the radar. I used to think PalmOS phones had a chance. Then I saw phones like the Sony Ericsson T630. In a year we'll see a phone wth the P900's features in a package around the size of a T630. At that point, Treo becomes the answer to a question NO ONE'S asking.
It's just too big.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
1.) Apple's iPod is a nice piece of engineering. There are no movable parts (except for the hold button) the touch sensitive scrollwheel by it self is a "tour de force". Anyway this issue is not ment for this site so lets close it.
2.) Regarding the smartphone, I agree with you to some extent. I would rather have a fully featured Palm and a separate phone that I can synchronize with the palm (via bluetooth preferably).
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped PDA with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$500
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
2.) Regarding the smartphone, I agree with you to some extent. I would rather have a fully featured Palm and a separate phone that I can synchronize with the palm (via bluetooth preferably).
2) Sony Ericsson T630 + the new CLIE UX = laptop replacement. This will be the combo power users everywhere will be carrying in a few months.
Smartphones like the Treo 600 are just too big and have too many disadvantages to make it.
It's just too big.
RE: Earth to Nagel: Get serious, buddy.
multimedia
Cool - i missed this in the last 2 days announcements. I knew the 'multimedia framwork' or whatever, was mentioned but didn't know they were including a player. Should the MMPlayer guys be worried? Writters of audio/video apps seriously benefit from Cobolt with multi-threading, true native ARM (no painful ARMlet coding), and now the plugible multimedia framework. We should finally get something good in the way of media players.
Nagel's aspirations
RE: Nagel's aspirations
PalmSource is a very small company looking to reduce its costs as much as possible and raise its revenues as much as possible.
They are resource constrained in a way the MS is not. They must focus on the critical success factors first. Going forward they really have to focus everything on how to make the best OS for the smartphone market.
They cant do everything, they cant even do many of the things they should do and that leaves a lot on the list of things they want to do.
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What about Linux?
Did Nagel say anything about Linux? True, the only notable Linux device today is the Sharp Zaurus, but it seems like Linux has the potential to compete directly with the Palm OS much more than Microsoft.
Palm Enthusiast since 1998